What We Eat — Climate Signal

Breadbasket Stress

CURRENT Fetched 2026-09-19

Heat · Moisture · Vegetation · 9 major regions

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Region	Heat	Moisture	Vegetation	Trend	Risk
	Normal Watch Stress Extreme	Normal Watch Stress Extreme	Normal Watch Stress Extreme	Improving Stable Worsening
US Midwest Corn / Soy	+0.4 °C Normal	94% Normal	+0.094 Normal	Stable	Normal
Ukraine Wheat / Sunflower	+1.2 °C Watch	99% Normal	+0.018 Normal	Stable	Watch
India (IGP) Wheat / Rice	+0.5 °C Normal	114% Normal	-0.003 Normal	Improving	Normal
Brazil (Cerrado) Soy / Corn	+1.2 °C Watch	80% Normal	-0.033 Watch	Worsening	Stress
Morocco / N. Africa Wheat / Barley	+1.9 °C Watch	106% Normal	+0.010 Normal	Improving	Watch
Australia Wheat	+0.6 °C Normal	94% Normal	+0.063 Normal	Stable	Normal
Argentina (Pampas) Soy / Corn / Wheat	-0.5 °C Normal	102% Normal	+0.132 Normal	Stable	Normal
Russia (Black Earth) Wheat / Sunflower	+0.4 °C Normal	117% Normal	+0.022 Normal	Stable	Normal
EU Wheat Belt (Fr/De/Pl) Wheat / Barley	+2.2 °C Stress	96% Normal	+0.033 Normal	Worsening	Stress

SOURCE · NCEI CDR NDVI · NOAA PSL CPC · ERA5/CDS

Global Drought · Regional Breakdown

Percent of world land at or below moderate drought severity — factoring in both rainfall and heat, broken down by continent.

STALE

Latest monthly value (~1-month lag)

through 2026-08-01

35.7% of land

6 POPULATED CONTINENTS COMBINED · ANTARCTICA EXCLUDED

1991–2020 era mean 17.2% of land

Threshold SPEI3 ≤ −1.0 · moderately dry or worse (McKee 1993/2011 classification)

Global % of land in drought · 1991–present ┊ El Niño peak (ONI), reference only

Regional breakdown 2026-08-01

Hover the trend line to see any month's regional breakdown

ⓘ methodology & sources

Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), 3-month accumulation window, from Copernicus CDS's ERA5-Drought product (ECMWF; peer-reviewed methodology: Keune et al. 2025, Scientific Data). Unlike a raw precipitation deficit, SPEI factors in temperature via potential evapotranspiration — so it captures drought intensified by heat, not just by low rainfall. The global figure and the 6-continent breakdown both exclude Antarctica: a probe found it makes up 29.4% of all land grid cells in this product yet behaves nothing like the rest of the world (mean SPEI3 +0.21 vs −0.28 elsewhere) — blending a permanent ice sheet into a "land in drought" figure diluted the real number by ~2 points and has no food/water/ecosystem meaning. Continent boundaries are approximate lat/lon boxes (same convention as this site's other illustrative regions), not authoritative political borders — North Africa's Mediterranean coast is grouped with Europe, Russia east of ~45°E with Asia, Greenland with North America. "Moderately dry or worse" = SPEI3 ≤ −1.0, the standard WMO-referenced classification (McKee et al. 1993/2011). 0.25° global grid, monthly, 1991–2020 reference period. This is a global measure — it is not a substitute for the Southwest U.S. Palmer Drought Severity Index tracked on the American West panel, which remains its own regional card.

World Grain Stocks · Days of Supply

CURRENT

Data through 2026-09

Corn

75.6 d

2026 · days of supply

-8.8 vs prior year

below 90d buffer floor

Wheat

122.6 d

2026 · days of supply

-2.6 vs prior year

Rice

133.9 d

2026 · days of supply

-5.4 vs prior year

ⓘ methodology & sources

World ending stocks expressed as days of domestic consumption remaining — the standard food-security buffer metric. Corn has fallen from ~95 days in 2022 to ~77 days in 2026, already below the 90-day floor where one bad harvest triggers a price shock. Wheat and rice remain comfortable; the spread between them is the story. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) database — world totals from all-country sum of ending stocks ÷ domestic consumption. Updated monthly alongside the WASDE.

FAO Food Price Index · Global Composite · 1990–present · FAO monthly

FAO CURRENT

2026-08-01 · 56d old

1990–last 12 months Trailing 12 months Elevated-price period (≥120 pts, 2+ months)

How to read this: The full FAO Food Price Index since 1990, one continuous line. Shaded, labeled periods are real elevated-price stretches (≥120 index points, 2+ consecutive months) — hover any point for the exact month and value.

FAO Price Index Global Drought %

Global drought % vs FAO Food Price Index, 1991–present. Real numbers, not an implied cause: 2007–08 and 2010–11 price spikes came with elevated drought, but 2012's severe US Midwest drought did not produce a new high — food prices track many drivers (energy, trade policy, war) beyond drought alone.

ⓘ methodology & sources

FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) composite — weighted average of cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar price indices. Base period 2014-2016=100. The March 2022 peak (160.2) was driven by simultaneous disruption in grain, energy, and fertilizer markets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The index remains elevated against the pre-2022 historical range. Source: FAO World Food Situation, updated monthly.

SOURCE · fao_fpci_monthly

US Wheat Production · WASDE CURRENT

Latest observation: 2026-09-01
25d old · fetched 2026-09-26

1,531million bushels

intervening years omitted · million bushels

ⓘ methodology & sources

Headline value is the USDA WASDE 2026/2027 projection — a forward estimate, since the 2026 crop is not yet harvested. The chart below compares two eras with the intervening decades omitted (axis break): the early 1970s, the last time US production sat this low, against recent years ending in the 2026 projection (dashed red bar). If this projection holds, it would be the smallest US wheat crop in over 50 years. Bars are NASS realized production; the dashed bar is the WASDE forecast. Headline source: WASDE via ESMIS, migrated May 2026 off the Akamai-blocked www.usda.gov; history: USDA NASS Quick Stats.

SOURCE · usda_wasde_csv