Climate Signal

2026 Trajectory / Climate Observability Platform / No Conditionals
2026-10-25 · 21:00 UTC
48 OF 53 SOURCES CURRENT · 5 STALE
5 STALE

The air we breathe

CO₂ at concentrations not seen in 3–5 million years.
The atmosphere is the ledger.

Earth Energy Imbalance · CERES EBAF-TOA CURRENT
No hedging is possible here. This is a measurement, not a model.
The long-term trend is near the top of the 25-year satellite record.
Latest observation: 2026-08-15
71d old · fetched 2026-10-25
EEI Trend · 12-mo running mean
1.865 W/m²
12-month running mean
CURRENT POSITION IN RECORD
94th percentile · 25-year satellite record
10 consecutive months ≥ 1.5 W/m²
≈ 15.1 Hiroshima bombs / sec
of excess energy absorbed
951.1 TW
absorbed · 12-month running mean
Satellite record peak
2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023
-0.09 0.60 1.29 1.98 2.67 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 POST-2020 · IMO LOW-SULPHUR ERA 2015 · ACCELERATION PHASE BEGINS PEAK 2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023 EL NIÑO AMPLIFICATION 1.865 W/m² Aug 2026 — —
ⓘ Positive values indicate energy gain by Earth.
ⓘ methodology & sources
12-month running mean of global-mean top-of-atmosphere net flux (toa_net_all_mon) — the rate the planet is accumulating heat, ~90% of it into the oceans. The trend is the signal: the 12-mo mean has risen roughly +0.4 W/m² per decade since 2001, the trend line nearly tripling across the record — but the line is noisy and NOT monotonic (it swings year to year, and the single-month-window record high was mid-2023, above the current value). NOTE: EBAF's absolute level is constrained to in-situ ocean heat content (Loeb et al.); the satellite fixes the TREND well but not the absolute magnitude independently — which is why the climb, not the height, is the honest reading. The Hiroshima framing is an editorial transform of the W/m² value, computed live.
SOURCE · ceres_ebaf_eei
Daily Global Surface Temperature · ERA5
CURRENT
ERA5 reanalysis · through 2026-10-23
2026 vs 1940–2025 Envelope
15.30°C
Global AVG
+1.51°C
2026 Anomaly
42/296
calendar-day records in 2026
296/296
days above 1991–2020 daily mean
#1 / 87
today's rank among all years
203/296
days hotter than 2023
16.3°C
September 2026 avg — #2 of 87 (99th pct)
10 12 14 16 18 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Hover the chart to compare years
Range 1940–2025 Mean 1940 1998 2016 2023 2024 2026
ⓘ methodology & sources
Cos-latitude-weighted global mean 2m air temperature from ERA5 reanalysis, published directly by ECMWF/C3S via Climate Pulse. ~2-3 day publication lag is intrinsic to the product, not staleness (most recent day is typically PRELIMINARY, settling to FINAL a few days later). The absolute annual peak is a Northern-Hemisphere-summer (July) value — ~17.15 °C in 2024, the warmest day in the record. The headline above tracks a different, honest superlative: the warmest reading on record for its specific calendar date, which 2026 has been setting through spring — weeks before that summer peak.
SOURCE · era5_daily_global_t
Atmospheric CO₂ · Mauna Loa CURRENT
Latest observation: 2026-10-24
1d old · fetched 2026-10-25
Keeling Curve · 1958–present
Pre-industrial baseline 280 ppm (1750)
426.96ppm
to CO₂ doubling
133.0 ppm remaining · 560 ppm target
year high (vs. current reading, above)
432.34 ppm
May 15, 2026 · seasonal cycle: CO₂ falls each NH summer
rate of rise
+2.23 ppm/yr
NOAA annual mean growth rate
above pre-industrial
+52.5%
300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 year high
Last seen at this level ~4 million years ago · Pliocene epoch
ⓘ methodology & sources
The breath of the planet: CO₂ falls each Northern-Hemisphere summer as plants take up carbon, then rises through winter. The full Keeling Curve — unbroken since 1958 — shows the relentless upward trend and the accelerating pace of rise.
SOURCE · noaa_co2_daily
Global Precipitable Water CURRENT
Latest observation: 2026-09-15
40d old · fetched 2026-10-25
Global atmospheric moisture · 36-mo running mean, 1943–2026
Every +1°C, atmospheric moisture rises ~7%.More water vapor intensifies rainfall and drought extremes.
View
Region
26.572 kg/m²
September vs 1950–1980 baseline +9.2%
September baseline mean 24.344 kg/m²
all-time record for September #1 of 87 years
23.5 24 24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 1960 1980 2000 2020 EL NIÑO 2023 — —
ⓘ methodology & sources
36-month running average of total-column precipitable water (water vapour), global mean. Atmospheric moisture rises ~7% per °C of warming (Clausius-Clapeyron), and the trend is upward — more water vapor means more intense precipitation, compounding flood and drought extremes. Per v2 exec summary Sec 1, which highlights the 30°N–60°N mid-latitude band (where over half the world's population lives); that exact band isn't available as a stable automated series, so this shows the global mean. Source: ERA5 total column water vapour (Copernicus C3S, 1940–present), area-weighted to a cos-latitude global mean via the CDS API.
SOURCE · era5_pwat
Global Mean Temperature · 146-Year Record CURRENT
Annual mean: 2025-12-01
328d old · fetched 2026-10-25
Annual mean · °C above pre-industrial (1880–1900 reference)
1.41°C above pre-industrial
Three independent methods agree within 0.09°C
0 0.5 1 1.5 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
ⓘ methodology & sources
Hero value: NASA GISTEMP annual mean for the latest complete year, rebased from the 1951–1980 baseline to a pre-industrial reference (1880–1899 mean = 0). The +0.29°C offset is computed live from the GISTEMP CSV — not hardcoded — so it tracks any future reprocessing. NOAA GlobalTemp and Berkeley Earth place current warming within 0.06°C of GISTEMP. The dashed line marks the Paris Agreement 1.5°C threshold (defined on the same pre-industrial reference). All three methods use independent station compilations and infilling; their convergence confirms the signal is real, not an artifact of method choice.
SOURCE · gistemp_preindustrial
Aerosol masking trap STRUCTURAL
CURRENT
GISTEMP · 2025

Aerosol masking trap

Fossil fuel combustion masks 0.5–1.5°C of warming via SO₂ aerosols.

Rapid decarbonization removes masking within weeks; CO₂ persists centuries.

No emissions pathway avoids the asymmetry between aerosol lifetime and CO₂ persistence.

Masking range
0.5–1.5°C
Removal timescale
WEEKS–MONTHS
CO₂ persistence
CENTURIES
Human control
CONSTRAINED
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch. 7 (aerosol ERF −1.06 W/m², 90% range −1.84 to −0.46); Samset et al. 2018 (aerosol removal timescale). Observed warming: NASA GISTEMP v4 annual anomaly (1880–1899 baseline). Aerosol cooling from IPCC AR6 best estimate. Total = observed + |aerosol forcing|.
Atmospheric Methane · Global Mean
FOSSIL FUEL OPERATIONS, LIVESTOCK, AND WETLANDS
THE NEAR-TERM LEVER
CURRENT
Latest (~4 month lag)
through 2026-06-01
1,935 ppb
↑ 5.4 ppb/yr
CURRENT RATE · 2025–26
Pre-industrial 722 ppb
Atmospheric lifetime ~12 yrs
Atmospheric concentration (ppb)
1700 1800 1900 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Annual growth rate (ppb / yr)
0 5 10 15 20 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
1999–2006 AVG
~1.2 ppb/yr
STABILIZATION
→
×8
2014–PRESENT AVG
~9.6 ppb/yr
RE-ACCELERATION
The cause remains scientifically contested — fossil fuel leaks, tropical wetland expansion, and shifting OH sink capacity are all implicated. No single driver has achieved consensus.
HUMAN CONTROL
DIRECT
CAUSE OF RE-ACCELERATION
CONTESTED
80-YR WARMING POTENTIAL
80× CO₂
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial CH₄ ≈ 722 ppb (ice-core consensus). Current levels represent a 2.6–2.7× increase. CH₄ has a ~12-year atmospheric lifetime but an 80-year warming potential 80× that of CO₂ — near-term reductions have an outsized effect on near-term warming. Annual growth rate computed as December minus January monthly mean for each complete year. Growth rate eras: stabilization 1999–2006 (near-zero net growth); re-acceleration 2014–present (cause contested — fossil fuel leaks, tropical wetland expansion, and shifting OH sink capacity all implicated). Ice core toggle: EPICA Dome C composite (Loulergue et al. 2008, NOAA/NCEI Paleoclimatology), spliced with this same NOAA GML record where the ice core itself stops (~1937).
Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide · Global Mean CURRENT
Latest monthly mean (~3–4-month lag): 2026-06-01
146d old · fetched 2026-10-25
Monthly global mean N₂O (ppb) · NOAA GML
339.86
ppb 1.26× pre-industrial
273× the warming potential of CO₂, and it lingers for over a century
The third greenhouse gas — mostly from fertilizer and the soils we farm.
313.3 323.1 332.9 342.7 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Pre-industrial
270 ppb
Current
339.86
ppb
Atmospheric lifetime
~115 yrs
Human control
CONSTRAINED
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial N₂O ≈ 270 ppb (ice-core consensus). Synthetic nitrogen agriculture is the dominant source; the ~115-year atmospheric lifetime means every tonne emitted today is still warming in 2141. Unlike CH₄ reductions, N₂O mitigation offers no near-term shortcut — persistence is the story. The curve is nearly linear: no plateaus, no policy inflections, no visible ceiling.
SOURCE · noaa_n2o_global

The Godzilla El Niño

The equatorial Pacific is the planet's primary weather engine. ENSO shifts rainfall, drought, storm tracks, and global mean temperature across seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Four indicators read the current state: the canonical Niño 3.4 index, the CFSv2 ensemble forecast, the Southern Oscillation Index (atmospheric confirmation), and a real-time SST map.

Niño 3.4 Forecast Cone · Nov 2025 → Jul 2027
ENSEMBLE MEAN PEAK · FORECAST
+3.38°C
+0.66°C OVER PRIOR RECORD
prior record: +2.72°C · 2015–16
SEAS5 peak: +4.18°C
NOAA CPC CFSv2 · NCEI obs CURRENT
Init Sep 24–Oct 23, 2026
Target Nov2026 - Jul2027
Forecast collector: 2026-10-25 · 0d old
Obs (SAT) thru 2026-10-23 · 2d old Obs (ARGO) thru 2026-10-20 · 5d old · 10d window
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 Nov 2025 Jan 2026 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2027 Mar May Jul +3.41°C El Niño onset — 2026-04-14, first sustained +0.5°C crossing EL NIÑO STARTS +3.73°C OBSERVED CFSv2 FORECAST → mean +3.38°C +3.41°C mean +3.37°C 5–95% +3.11…+3.67 mean +3.38°C 5–95% +3.02…+3.74 mean +2.89°C 5–95% +2.65…+3.21 mean +2.48°C 5–95% +2.13…+2.86 mean +1.90°C 5–95% +1.56…+2.29 mean +1.31°C 5–95% +0.82…+1.91 mean +0.81°C 5–95% +0.23…+1.49 mean +0.45°C 5–95% -0.38…+1.37 mean +0.25°C 5–95% -0.65…+1.23
Historical 5th–95th Observed (OISST daily) Forecast 5th–95th (112 members) Ensemble mean
What you're looking at: Left of the seam: OISST daily Niño 3.4 Nov 2025–Oct 23. Right: the CFSv2 ensemble cone through Jul 2027. Left of the seam: Argo float profiles in the Niño 3.4 box. The surface line independently corroborates the satellite SST signal; the hover adds the thermocline — the 100–200 m band mean, where ENSO heat is stored — shown against the same calendar window in 2015 and 2023. Subsurface recharge historically builds ahead of a peak, so it is context on the event's state, not a forecast. Right: the CFSv2 ensemble cone through Jul2027.
Niño 3.4 · Equatorial Pacific SST · 2026 vs 1981–2025 · CPC weekly + OISST daily
NOAA CPC · OISSTv2 weekly CURRENT
2026-10-14 · 11d old
2026-10-23 · 2d old
2026-10-23 · 2d old
2026-10 · provisional
-2°C 0°C 2°C 4°C Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Provisional — daily estimate, not yet confirmed by the weekly source Hover the chart to compare years
24°C25°C26°C27°C28°C29°C30°CJanMarMayJulSepNovHover to compare years
-4 SD-3 SD-2 SD-1 SD+0 SD+1 SD+2 SD+3 SD+4 SDJanMarMayJulSepNov
Jan 1950: -1.99°C Feb 1950: -1.69°C Mar 1950: -1.42°C Apr 1950: -1.54°C May 1950: -1.75°C Jun 1950: -1.27°C Jul 1950: -1.01°C Aug 1950: -0.97°C Sep 1950: -0.98°C Oct 1950: -1.03°C Nov 1950: -1.23°C Dec 1950: -1.31°C 1950 Jan 1951: -1.30°C Feb 1951: -1.04°C Mar 1951: -0.38°C Apr 1951: -0.23°C May 1951: -0.01°C Jun 1951: +0.00°C Jul 1951: +0.30°C Aug 1951: +0.17°C Sep 1951: +0.51°C Oct 1951: +0.49°C Nov 1951: +0.55°C Dec 1951: +0.31°C Jan 1952: +0.13°C Feb 1952: -0.01°C Mar 1952: -0.11°C Apr 1952: -0.02°C May 1952: -0.14°C Jun 1952: -0.54°C Jul 1952: -0.76°C Aug 1952: -0.56°C Sep 1952: -0.36°C Oct 1952: -0.46°C Nov 1952: -0.78°C Dec 1952: -0.39°C Jan 1953: +0.20°C Feb 1953: +0.24°C Mar 1953: +0.29°C Apr 1953: +0.22°C May 1953: +0.35°C Jun 1953: +0.39°C Jul 1953: +0.14°C Aug 1953: +0.09°C Sep 1953: +0.29°C Oct 1953: +0.16°C Nov 1953: +0.18°C Dec 1953: +0.41°C Jan 1954: +0.43°C Feb 1954: +0.28°C Mar 1954: -0.38°C Apr 1954: -1.17°C May 1954: -0.81°C Jun 1954: -0.93°C Jul 1954: -1.18°C Aug 1954: -1.43°C Sep 1954: -1.60°C Oct 1954: -1.48°C Nov 1954: -1.13°C Dec 1954: -1.33°C Jan 1955: -0.93°C Feb 1955: -0.95°C Mar 1955: -1.06°C Apr 1955: -1.22°C May 1955: -1.28°C Jun 1955: -1.18°C Jul 1955: -1.15°C Aug 1955: -1.35°C Sep 1955: -1.43°C Oct 1955: -2.31°C Nov 1955: -2.45°C Dec 1955: -2.03°C 1955 Jan 1956: -1.20°C Feb 1956: -0.99°C Mar 1956: -0.83°C Apr 1956: -0.97°C May 1956: -0.80°C Jun 1956: -0.92°C Jul 1956: -1.06°C Aug 1956: -1.17°C Sep 1956: -0.98°C Oct 1956: -0.97°C Nov 1956: -1.14°C Dec 1956: -0.89°C Jan 1957: -0.51°C Feb 1957: -0.22°C Mar 1957: +0.18°C Apr 1957: +0.41°C May 1957: +0.62°C Jun 1957: +0.63°C Jul 1957: +0.87°C Aug 1957: +0.84°C Sep 1957: +0.72°C Oct 1957: +0.70°C Nov 1957: +0.92°C Dec 1957: +1.30°C Jan 1958: +1.78°C Feb 1958: +1.49°C Mar 1958: +0.98°C Apr 1958: +0.46°C May 1958: +0.38°C Jun 1958: +0.26°C Jul 1958: +0.03°C Aug 1958: -0.01°C Sep 1958: -0.32°C Oct 1958: -0.27°C Nov 1958: +0.05°C Dec 1958: +0.02°C Jan 1959: +0.53°C Feb 1959: +0.43°C Mar 1959: +0.19°C Apr 1959: +0.06°C May 1959: -0.23°C Jun 1959: -0.35°C Jul 1959: -0.86°C Aug 1959: -0.77°C Sep 1959: -0.80°C Oct 1959: -0.48°C Nov 1959: -0.66°C Dec 1959: -0.42°C Jan 1960: -0.28°C Feb 1960: -0.46°C Mar 1960: -0.30°C Apr 1960: -0.33°C May 1960: -0.25°C Jun 1960: -0.49°C Jul 1960: -0.41°C Aug 1960: -0.15°C Sep 1960: -0.28°C Oct 1960: -0.49°C Nov 1960: -0.45°C Dec 1960: -0.38°C 1960 Jan 1961: -0.31°C Feb 1961: -0.19°C Mar 1961: -0.35°C Apr 1961: -0.46°C May 1961: -0.18°C Jun 1961: -0.06°C Jul 1961: -0.41°C Aug 1961: -0.67°C Sep 1961: -0.94°C Oct 1961: -1.01°C Nov 1961: -0.63°C Dec 1961: -0.63°C Jan 1962: -0.59°C Feb 1962: -0.57°C Mar 1962: -0.48°C Apr 1962: -0.69°C May 1962: -0.89°C Jun 1962: -0.65°C Jul 1962: -0.53°C Aug 1962: -0.53°C Sep 1962: -0.78°C Oct 1962: -0.75°C Nov 1962: -0.95°C Dec 1962: -0.93°C Jan 1963: -0.78°C Feb 1963: -0.53°C Mar 1963: -0.10°C Apr 1963: -0.03°C May 1963: -0.30°C Jun 1963: -0.11°C Jul 1963: +0.49°C Aug 1963: +0.62°C Sep 1963: +0.68°C Oct 1963: +0.64°C Nov 1963: +0.77°C Dec 1963: +1.02°C Jan 1964: +0.79°C Feb 1964: +0.38°C Mar 1964: -0.26°C Apr 1964: -0.87°C May 1964: -1.12°C Jun 1964: -1.14°C Jul 1964: -0.96°C Aug 1964: -1.26°C Sep 1964: -1.40°C Oct 1964: -1.35°C Nov 1964: -1.44°C Dec 1964: -1.37°C Jan 1965: -0.89°C Feb 1965: -0.56°C Mar 1965: -0.34°C Apr 1965: -0.44°C May 1965: +0.06°C Jun 1965: +0.36°C Jul 1965: +0.61°C Aug 1965: +1.12°C Sep 1965: +1.29°C Oct 1965: +1.45°C Nov 1965: +1.42°C Dec 1965: +1.36°C 1965 Jan 1966: +1.12°C Feb 1966: +0.80°C Mar 1966: +0.93°C Apr 1966: +0.35°C May 1966: -0.38°C Jun 1966: -0.08°C Jul 1966: +0.04°C Aug 1966: -0.37°C Sep 1966: -0.44°C Oct 1966: -0.50°C Nov 1966: -0.47°C Dec 1966: -0.57°C Jan 1967: -0.67°C Feb 1967: -0.64°C Mar 1967: -0.78°C Apr 1967: -1.08°C May 1967: -0.59°C Jun 1967: -0.26°C Jul 1967: -0.33°C Aug 1967: -0.42°C Sep 1967: -0.86°C Oct 1967: -0.74°C Nov 1967: -0.62°C Dec 1967: -0.65°C Jan 1968: -0.85°C Feb 1968: -1.07°C Mar 1968: -0.95°C Apr 1968: -0.72°C May 1968: -0.75°C Jun 1968: +0.15°C Jul 1968: +0.28°C Aug 1968: +0.16°C Sep 1968: +0.01°C Oct 1968: +0.04°C Nov 1968: +0.50°C Dec 1968: +0.67°C Jan 1969: +0.95°C Feb 1969: +1.11°C Mar 1969: +0.54°C Apr 1969: +0.31°C May 1969: +0.35°C Jun 1969: -0.04°C Jul 1969: -0.21°C Aug 1969: +0.16°C Sep 1969: +0.43°C Oct 1969: +0.62°C Nov 1969: +0.40°C Dec 1969: +0.38°C Jan 1970: +0.28°C Feb 1970: +0.20°C Mar 1970: -0.14°C Apr 1970: -0.08°C May 1970: -0.30°C Jun 1970: -0.69°C Jul 1970: -1.08°C Aug 1970: -1.26°C Sep 1970: -1.07°C Oct 1970: -1.12°C Nov 1970: -1.13°C Dec 1970: -1.33°C 1970 Jan 1971: -1.73°C Feb 1971: -1.57°C Mar 1971: -1.36°C Apr 1971: -1.18°C May 1971: -0.98°C Jun 1971: -1.13°C Jul 1971: -1.17°C Aug 1971: -1.10°C Sep 1971: -1.00°C Oct 1971: -1.24°C Nov 1971: -1.15°C Dec 1971: -1.23°C Jan 1972: -0.92°C Feb 1972: -0.45°C Mar 1972: -0.19°C Apr 1972: +0.07°C May 1972: +0.38°C Jun 1972: +0.45°C Jul 1972: +0.85°C Aug 1972: +1.09°C Sep 1972: +1.23°C Oct 1972: +1.54°C Nov 1972: +1.90°C Dec 1972: +2.09°C Jan 1973: +1.80°C Feb 1973: +1.20°C Mar 1973: +0.27°C Apr 1973: -0.58°C May 1973: -0.97°C Jun 1973: -1.18°C Jul 1973: -1.54°C Aug 1973: -1.63°C Sep 1973: -1.66°C Oct 1973: -1.98°C Nov 1973: -2.37°C Dec 1973: -2.26°C Jan 1974: -2.09°C Feb 1974: -1.66°C Mar 1974: -1.45°C Apr 1974: -1.36°C May 1974: -1.29°C Jun 1974: -1.20°C Jul 1974: -0.90°C Aug 1974: -0.52°C Sep 1974: -0.64°C Oct 1974: -0.94°C Nov 1974: -1.09°C Dec 1974: -0.97°C Jan 1975: -0.45°C Feb 1975: -0.68°C Mar 1975: -1.09°C Apr 1975: -0.96°C May 1975: -1.13°C Jun 1975: -1.50°C Jul 1975: -1.39°C Aug 1975: -1.52°C Sep 1975: -1.66°C Oct 1975: -1.83°C Nov 1975: -1.66°C Dec 1975: -1.93°C 1975 Jan 1976: -2.01°C Feb 1976: -1.26°C Mar 1976: -0.82°C Apr 1976: -0.93°C May 1976: -0.74°C Jun 1976: -0.38°C Jul 1976: -0.16°C Aug 1976: +0.12°C Sep 1976: +0.30°C Oct 1976: +0.75°C Nov 1976: +0.71°C Dec 1976: +0.49°C Jan 1977: +0.78°C Feb 1977: +0.37°C Mar 1977: +0.19°C Apr 1977: -0.38°C May 1977: -0.21°C Jun 1977: +0.01°C Jul 1977: +0.09°C Aug 1977: -0.01°C Sep 1977: +0.40°C Oct 1977: +0.63°C Nov 1977: +0.48°C Dec 1977: +0.70°C Jan 1978: +0.62°C Feb 1978: +0.25°C Mar 1978: -0.20°C Apr 1978: -0.70°C May 1978: -0.74°C Jun 1978: -0.71°C Jul 1978: -0.55°C Aug 1978: -0.79°C Sep 1978: -0.71°C Oct 1978: -0.46°C Nov 1978: -0.38°C Dec 1978: -0.06°C Jan 1979: -0.13°C Feb 1979: -0.22°C Mar 1979: -0.02°C Apr 1979: +0.02°C May 1979: -0.25°C Jun 1979: -0.29°C Jul 1979: -0.47°C Aug 1979: -0.10°C Sep 1979: +0.28°C Oct 1979: +0.11°C Nov 1979: +0.29°C Dec 1979: +0.52°C Jan 1980: +0.54°C Feb 1980: +0.22°C Mar 1980: +0.03°C Apr 1980: -0.07°C May 1980: +0.08°C Jun 1980: +0.21°C Jul 1980: -0.06°C Aug 1980: -0.38°C Sep 1980: -0.28°C Oct 1980: -0.26°C Nov 1980: -0.10°C Dec 1980: +0.05°C 1980 Jan 1981: -0.36°C Feb 1981: -0.64°C Mar 1981: -0.64°C Apr 1981: -0.53°C May 1981: -0.57°C Jun 1981: -0.46°C Jul 1981: -0.64°C Aug 1981: -0.53°C Sep 1981: -0.35°C Oct 1981: -0.23°C Nov 1981: -0.68°C Dec 1981: -0.39°C Jan 1982: +0.10°C Feb 1982: -0.21°C Mar 1982: -0.14°C Apr 1982: +0.02°C May 1982: +0.48°C Jun 1982: +0.65°C Jul 1982: +0.27°C Aug 1982: +0.90°C Sep 1982: +1.29°C Oct 1982: +1.82°C Nov 1982: +1.76°C Dec 1982: +2.30°C Jan 1983: +2.23°C Feb 1983: +1.89°C Mar 1983: +1.30°C Apr 1983: +0.74°C May 1983: +0.71°C Jun 1983: +0.46°C Jul 1983: -0.39°C Aug 1983: -0.49°C Sep 1983: -0.43°C Oct 1983: -1.08°C Nov 1983: -1.38°C Dec 1983: -1.22°C Jan 1984: -1.00°C Feb 1984: -0.16°C Mar 1984: -0.56°C Apr 1984: -0.55°C May 1984: -0.72°C Jun 1984: -1.08°C Jul 1984: -0.70°C Aug 1984: -0.54°C Sep 1984: -0.42°C Oct 1984: -0.78°C Nov 1984: -1.37°C Dec 1984: -1.52°C Jan 1985: -1.33°C Feb 1985: -0.94°C Mar 1985: -0.90°C Apr 1985: -1.14°C May 1985: -1.11°C Jun 1985: -1.11°C Jul 1985: -0.81°C Aug 1985: -0.64°C Sep 1985: -0.80°C Oct 1985: -0.75°C Nov 1985: -0.58°C Dec 1985: -0.58°C 1985 Jan 1986: -0.72°C Feb 1986: -0.81°C Mar 1986: -0.61°C Apr 1986: -0.53°C May 1986: -0.58°C Jun 1986: -0.34°C Jul 1986: -0.03°C Aug 1986: +0.22°C Sep 1986: +0.43°C Oct 1986: +0.54°C Nov 1986: +0.56°C Dec 1986: +0.86°C Jan 1987: +0.99°C Feb 1987: +0.85°C Mar 1987: +0.93°C Apr 1987: +0.47°C May 1987: +0.34°C Jun 1987: +0.76°C Jul 1987: +1.08°C Aug 1987: +1.24°C Sep 1987: +1.35°C Oct 1987: +0.98°C Nov 1987: +0.85°C Dec 1987: +0.77°C Jan 1988: +0.68°C Feb 1988: +0.21°C Mar 1988: +0.03°C Apr 1988: -0.60°C May 1988: -1.43°C Jun 1988: -1.78°C Jul 1988: -1.78°C Aug 1988: -1.46°C Sep 1988: -0.94°C Oct 1988: -2.08°C Nov 1988: -2.29°C Dec 1988: -2.05°C Jan 1989: -2.04°C Feb 1989: -1.50°C Mar 1989: -1.48°C Apr 1989: -1.36°C May 1989: -0.92°C Jun 1989: -0.68°C Jul 1989: -0.57°C Aug 1989: -0.71°C Sep 1989: -0.50°C Oct 1989: -0.56°C Nov 1989: -0.63°C Dec 1989: -0.18°C Jan 1990: -0.09°C Feb 1990: +0.02°C Mar 1990: -0.17°C Apr 1990: -0.06°C May 1990: +0.05°C Jun 1990: -0.27°C Jul 1990: -0.01°C Aug 1990: +0.11°C Sep 1990: -0.04°C Oct 1990: +0.19°C Nov 1990: -0.10°C Dec 1990: +0.23°C 1990 Jan 1991: +0.35°C Feb 1991: +0.15°C Mar 1991: -0.08°C Apr 1991: +0.09°C May 1991: +0.26°C Jun 1991: +0.40°C Jul 1991: +0.48°C Aug 1991: +0.62°C Sep 1991: +0.30°C Oct 1991: +0.65°C Nov 1991: +0.91°C Dec 1991: +1.56°C Jan 1992: +1.75°C Feb 1992: +1.62°C Mar 1992: +1.20°C Apr 1992: +1.03°C May 1992: +0.94°C Jun 1992: +0.41°C Jul 1992: +0.15°C Aug 1992: -0.09°C Sep 1992: -0.17°C Oct 1992: -0.53°C Nov 1992: -0.19°C Dec 1992: +0.16°C Jan 1993: +0.16°C Feb 1993: +0.33°C Mar 1993: +0.23°C Apr 1993: +0.34°C May 1993: +0.67°C Jun 1993: +0.15°C Jul 1993: +0.21°C Aug 1993: -0.06°C Sep 1993: +0.22°C Oct 1993: +0.18°C Nov 1993: +0.06°C Dec 1993: +0.09°C Jan 1994: +0.02°C Feb 1994: -0.09°C Mar 1994: +0.14°C Apr 1994: +0.08°C May 1994: +0.12°C Jun 1994: +0.14°C Jul 1994: -0.02°C Aug 1994: +0.43°C Sep 1994: +0.27°C Oct 1994: +0.62°C Nov 1994: +0.94°C Dec 1994: +1.20°C Jan 1995: +0.78°C Feb 1995: +0.66°C Mar 1995: +0.30°C Apr 1995: +0.08°C May 1995: -0.23°C Jun 1995: -0.38°C Jul 1995: -0.23°C Aug 1995: -0.60°C Sep 1995: -0.67°C Oct 1995: -0.97°C Nov 1995: -1.03°C Dec 1995: -0.93°C 1995 Jan 1996: -0.83°C Feb 1996: -0.79°C Mar 1996: -0.69°C Apr 1996: -0.50°C May 1996: -0.51°C Jun 1996: -0.47°C Jul 1996: -0.35°C Aug 1996: -0.30°C Sep 1996: -0.35°C Oct 1996: -0.58°C Nov 1996: -0.44°C Dec 1996: -0.60°C Jan 1997: -0.62°C Feb 1997: -0.38°C Mar 1997: -0.35°C Apr 1997: -0.10°C May 1997: +0.43°C Jun 1997: +0.86°C Jul 1997: +1.34°C Aug 1997: +1.76°C Sep 1997: +1.91°C Oct 1997: +2.04°C Nov 1997: +2.19°C Dec 1997: +2.19°C Jan 1998: +2.12°C Feb 1998: +1.80°C Mar 1998: +1.22°C Apr 1998: +0.52°C May 1998: +0.46°C Jun 1998: -0.86°C Jul 1998: -1.27°C Aug 1998: -1.31°C Sep 1998: -1.10°C Oct 1998: -1.41°C Nov 1998: -1.39°C Dec 1998: -1.80°C Jan 1999: -1.64°C Feb 1999: -1.13°C Mar 1999: -0.92°C Apr 1999: -1.02°C May 1999: -0.94°C Jun 1999: -1.10°C Jul 1999: -1.04°C Aug 1999: -1.25°C Sep 1999: -1.03°C Oct 1999: -1.20°C Nov 1999: -1.67°C Dec 1999: -1.68°C Jan 2000: -1.80°C Feb 2000: -1.56°C Mar 2000: -1.17°C Apr 2000: -0.91°C May 2000: -0.98°C Jun 2000: -0.69°C Jul 2000: -0.71°C Aug 2000: -0.48°C Sep 2000: -0.52°C Oct 2000: -0.72°C Nov 2000: -0.92°C Dec 2000: -1.06°C 2000 Jan 2001: -0.77°C Feb 2001: -0.57°C Mar 2001: -0.38°C Apr 2001: -0.57°C May 2001: -0.47°C Jun 2001: -0.15°C Jul 2001: -0.09°C Aug 2001: -0.08°C Sep 2001: -0.19°C Oct 2001: -0.26°C Nov 2001: -0.49°C Dec 2001: -0.53°C Jan 2002: -0.17°C Feb 2002: +0.06°C Mar 2002: -0.05°C Apr 2002: +0.04°C May 2002: +0.21°C Jun 2002: +0.63°C Jul 2002: +0.61°C Aug 2002: +0.70°C Sep 2002: +0.89°C Oct 2002: +1.07°C Nov 2002: +1.26°C Dec 2002: +1.34°C Jan 2003: +0.91°C Feb 2003: +0.67°C Mar 2003: +0.52°C Apr 2003: -0.14°C May 2003: -0.63°C Jun 2003: -0.36°C Jul 2003: +0.04°C Aug 2003: +0.03°C Sep 2003: +0.20°C Oct 2003: +0.43°C Nov 2003: +0.21°C Dec 2003: +0.35°C Jan 2004: +0.22°C Feb 2004: +0.17°C Mar 2004: -0.21°C Apr 2004: -0.06°C May 2004: +0.08°C Jun 2004: -0.00°C Jul 2004: +0.51°C Aug 2004: +0.66°C Sep 2004: +0.69°C Oct 2004: +0.64°C Nov 2004: +0.59°C Dec 2004: +0.65°C Jan 2005: +0.62°C Feb 2005: +0.23°C Mar 2005: +0.27°C Apr 2005: +0.14°C May 2005: +0.23°C Jun 2005: +0.21°C Jul 2005: +0.07°C Aug 2005: +0.05°C Sep 2005: -0.12°C Oct 2005: -0.07°C Nov 2005: -0.55°C Dec 2005: -0.82°C 2005 Jan 2006: -0.94°C Feb 2006: -0.69°C Mar 2006: -0.69°C Apr 2006: -0.28°C May 2006: -0.06°C Jun 2006: +0.10°C Jul 2006: -0.01°C Aug 2006: +0.36°C Sep 2006: +0.55°C Oct 2006: +0.66°C Nov 2006: +0.86°C Dec 2006: +1.14°C Jan 2007: +0.77°C Feb 2007: +0.09°C Mar 2007: -0.09°C Apr 2007: -0.11°C May 2007: -0.45°C Jun 2007: -0.14°C Jul 2007: -0.44°C Aug 2007: -0.60°C Sep 2007: -0.90°C Oct 2007: -1.23°C Nov 2007: -1.46°C Dec 2007: -1.21°C Jan 2008: -1.62°C Feb 2008: -1.54°C Mar 2008: -0.96°C Apr 2008: -0.86°C May 2008: -0.69°C Jun 2008: -0.64°C Jul 2008: -0.25°C Aug 2008: -0.06°C Sep 2008: -0.25°C Oct 2008: -0.21°C Nov 2008: -0.35°C Dec 2008: -0.83°C Jan 2009: -0.81°C Feb 2009: -0.59°C Mar 2009: -0.63°C Apr 2009: -0.17°C May 2009: +0.19°C Jun 2009: +0.43°C Jul 2009: +0.55°C Aug 2009: +0.71°C Sep 2009: +0.73°C Oct 2009: +0.93°C Nov 2009: +1.47°C Dec 2009: +1.73°C Jan 2010: +1.58°C Feb 2010: +1.23°C Mar 2010: +1.17°C Apr 2010: +0.61°C May 2010: -0.13°C Jun 2010: -0.58°C Jul 2010: -0.96°C Aug 2010: -1.25°C Sep 2010: -1.35°C Oct 2010: -1.43°C Nov 2010: -1.45°C Dec 2010: -1.21°C 2010 Jan 2011: -1.49°C Feb 2011: -1.20°C Mar 2011: -0.83°C Apr 2011: -0.75°C May 2011: -0.38°C Jun 2011: -0.29°C Jul 2011: -0.18°C Aug 2011: -0.41°C Sep 2011: -0.68°C Oct 2011: -0.72°C Nov 2011: -0.99°C Dec 2011: -0.99°C Jan 2012: -0.64°C Feb 2012: -0.56°C Mar 2012: -0.46°C Apr 2012: -0.54°C May 2012: -0.19°C Jun 2012: +0.28°C Jul 2012: +0.30°C Aug 2012: +0.72°C Sep 2012: +0.45°C Oct 2012: +0.36°C Nov 2012: +0.51°C Dec 2012: -0.48°C Jan 2013: -0.50°C Feb 2013: -0.51°C Mar 2013: -0.20°C Apr 2013: +0.13°C May 2013: -0.33°C Jun 2013: -0.34°C Jul 2013: -0.26°C Aug 2013: -0.50°C Sep 2013: +0.05°C Oct 2013: -0.17°C Nov 2013: -0.09°C Dec 2013: -0.19°C Jan 2014: -0.52°C Feb 2014: -0.89°C Mar 2014: -0.36°C Apr 2014: +0.20°C May 2014: +0.47°C Jun 2014: +0.49°C Jul 2014: -0.06°C Aug 2014: -0.03°C Sep 2014: +0.32°C Oct 2014: +0.44°C Nov 2014: +0.76°C Dec 2014: +0.64°C Jan 2015: +0.51°C Feb 2015: +0.75°C Mar 2015: +0.45°C Apr 2015: +0.85°C May 2015: +0.86°C Jun 2015: +1.07°C Jul 2015: +1.31°C Aug 2015: +1.71°C Sep 2015: +1.85°C Oct 2015: +2.28°C Nov 2015: +2.81°C Dec 2015: +2.47°C 2015 Jan 2016: +2.55°C Feb 2016: +2.30°C Mar 2016: +1.63°C Apr 2016: +0.97°C May 2016: +0.22°C Jun 2016: -0.04°C Jul 2016: -0.47°C Aug 2016: -0.52°C Sep 2016: -0.46°C Oct 2016: -0.74°C Nov 2016: -0.67°C Dec 2016: -0.35°C Jan 2017: -0.28°C Feb 2017: +0.09°C Mar 2017: +0.19°C Apr 2017: +0.35°C May 2017: +0.41°C Jun 2017: +0.38°C Jul 2017: +0.27°C Aug 2017: -0.08°C Sep 2017: -0.34°C Oct 2017: -0.40°C Nov 2017: -0.96°C Dec 2017: -0.97°C Jan 2018: -0.72°C Feb 2018: -0.70°C Mar 2018: -0.77°C Apr 2018: -0.53°C May 2018: -0.12°C Jun 2018: +0.16°C Jul 2018: +0.23°C Aug 2018: +0.29°C Sep 2018: +0.33°C Oct 2018: +0.89°C Nov 2018: +0.88°C Dec 2018: +0.92°C Jan 2019: +0.69°C Feb 2019: +0.72°C Mar 2019: +1.01°C Apr 2019: +0.74°C May 2019: +0.76°C Jun 2019: +0.61°C Jul 2019: +0.43°C Aug 2019: +0.15°C Sep 2019: -0.02°C Oct 2019: +0.53°C Nov 2019: +0.46°C Dec 2019: +0.42°C Jan 2020: +0.53°C Feb 2020: +0.34°C Mar 2020: +0.46°C Apr 2020: +0.40°C May 2020: -0.25°C Jun 2020: -0.29°C Jul 2020: -0.15°C Aug 2020: -0.56°C Sep 2020: -0.67°C Oct 2020: -1.17°C Nov 2020: -1.26°C Dec 2020: -1.00°C 2020 Jan 2021: -0.92°C Feb 2021: -0.88°C Mar 2021: -0.55°C Apr 2021: -0.58°C May 2021: -0.32°C Jun 2021: -0.03°C Jul 2021: -0.19°C Aug 2021: -0.29°C Sep 2021: -0.27°C Oct 2021: -0.80°C Nov 2021: -0.88°C Dec 2021: -1.06°C Jan 2022: -0.84°C Feb 2022: -0.72°C Mar 2022: -0.89°C Apr 2022: -0.99°C May 2022: -1.07°C Jun 2022: -0.66°C Jul 2022: -0.64°C Aug 2022: -0.98°C Sep 2022: -0.93°C Oct 2022: -0.84°C Nov 2022: -0.95°C Dec 2022: -0.84°C Jan 2023: -0.68°C Feb 2023: -0.47°C Mar 2023: -0.01°C Apr 2023: +0.19°C May 2023: +0.48°C Jun 2023: +0.93°C Jul 2023: +1.08°C Aug 2023: +1.33°C Sep 2023: +1.59°C Oct 2023: +1.61°C Nov 2023: +1.91°C Dec 2023: +2.02°C Jan 2024: +1.81°C Feb 2024: +1.55°C Mar 2024: +1.23°C Apr 2024: +0.83°C May 2024: +0.27°C Jun 2024: +0.23°C Jul 2024: +0.19°C Aug 2024: -0.05°C Sep 2024: -0.26°C Oct 2024: -0.33°C Nov 2024: -0.11°C Dec 2024: -0.64°C Jan 2025: -0.76°C Feb 2025: -0.35°C Mar 2025: +0.14°C Apr 2025: -0.13°C May 2025: -0.04°C Jun 2025: +0.01°C Jul 2025: -0.07°C Aug 2025: -0.32°C Sep 2025: -0.41°C Oct 2025: -0.48°C Nov 2025: -0.72°C Dec 2025: -0.62°C 2025 Jan 2026: -0.57°C Feb 2026: -0.19°C Mar 2026: +0.01°C Apr 2026: +0.48°C May 2026: +0.94°C Jun 2026: +1.60°C Jul 2026: +2.09°C Aug 2026: +2.58°C Sep 2026: +2.96°C Oct 2026: +3.32°C (provisional) Nov 2026: no data Dec 2026: no data Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Historical mean 1997 2015 2023 2026 Historical range 1981–2025 (45 yrs), 5th–95th pct OISST daily · provisional
1991–2020 mean 1988 1997 1999 2015 2023 2026 All years 1981–2025
Each line = 1 year, 1981–2025 2026 (Climate Reanalyzer, daily)
+1.5°C +3.0°C+ Blank = below +1.5°C that month Dashed = provisional (daily OISST, not yet confirmed)
Niño 3.4 · Oct 23 (daily) +3.41°C 1991–2020 baseline · El Niño
Same month, older baseline +1.74°C 1971–2000 baseline
Absolute SST · Niño 3.4 30.1°C physical sea surface temperature
Among all Octs (76 yr) #1/77 100.0th percentile — near record
Niño 3.4 · Oct 23 +3.37 SD vs 1991–2020 mean
Highest on Oct 23 (46 yrs) 2026 +3.37 SD — 2026 leads
Days ≥ +2 SD this year 147/296 strong-anomaly threshold
Rank, this calendar day (46 yr) #1/46 100th percentile
This episode, running 6mo ≥+0.5°C since 2026-05 · latest month provisional
Months ≥+2.0°C, this episode 4 record: 5 (2015–16)
Months ≥+2.5°C, this episode 3 record: 2 (2015–16)
El Niño episodes since 1950 19 ≥5 consecutive months ≥+0.5°C
How to read this: 2026 (purple) vs every week 1981–2025. Band = 5th–95th percentile range. 1997, 2015, 2023 shown for comparison.
How to read this: 2026 (purple) in raw °C vs the 1991–2020 mean (dashed). 1988, 1997, 1999, 2015, 2023 shown for comparison.
How to read this: 2026 (purple) in standard deviations from the 1991–2020 mean. Each gray line is one prior year, 1982–2025.
How to read this: one column per year since 1950, one row per calendar month (Jan–Dec, top to bottom). A cell lights up when that month hit at least +1.5°C. Most of the grid is blank — only real El Niño events light up, and which rows light up shows which months.
The Temperature Ratchet CURRENT
NASA GISTEMP · through 2026-09
+1.44°C
12-month mean · vs pre-industrial
LATEST MONTH
+1.60°C
September 2026
CURRENT FLOOR · 2023–24
+1.50°C
2023–24
FLOOR STEP-UP
+0.32°C
above prior floor
RATE OF RISE
+0.30°C / decade
 
MONTHS ≥1.5°C BY YEAR · 15 since Sep 2023, 2 in the decade before
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 3_2016: +1.57°C 2_2016: +1.58°C 2020 10_2023: +1.56°C 12_2023: +1.57°C 11_2023: +1.62°C 9_2023: +1.70°C 11_2024: +1.51°C 8_2024: +1.52°C 4_2024: +1.54°C 10_2024: +1.56°C 3_2024: +1.61°C 2_2024: +1.65°C 3_2025: +1.58°C 1_2025: +1.59°C 2025 3_2026: +1.52°C 9_2026: +1.60°C 8_2026: +1.64°C
+0.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FORECAST → 1997–98 2009–10 2015–16 2023–24 Paris 1.5°C 2.0°C
Floor = 12-month mean starting 6 months after ONI peak · verified from NASA GISTEMP
Statistical projection (trend + ENSO regression), not an official forecast: ENSO-adjusted trend fit, 3-month lag, R²=0.80 vs 381 months of history; Nino 3.4 path from the live CFSv2 ensemble.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Floor = 12-month mean starting 6 months after ONI peak · verified from NASA GISTEMP
Source: NASA GISTEMP GLB.Ts+dSST · pre-industrial baseline 1880–1899
FORECAST ZONE METHODOLOGY — a monthly-resolution ENSO adjustment of the GISTEMP trend itself, the same technique used in published climate literature to separate short-term ENSO variability from the secular warming trend (see Foster & Rahmstorf, 'Global temperature evolution 1979–2010', Environ. Res. Lett. 2011, for the canonical version of this method).
Model: GISTEMP_anomaly(t) = intercept + trend·t + β·Niño3.4(t − lag). Fit by ordinary least squares against NASA GISTEMP's full monthly series (1995–present, ~380 points) and NOAA's ERSST-based Niño 3.4 monthly index. The lag (months between an ENSO reading and its effect on global mean temperature) is not assumed — it's chosen live by testing every lag from 0–12 months and keeping whichever gives the best fit (highest R²).
Forecast values project that fitted trend forward, plus β times NOAA CFSv2's live 80-member Niño 3.4 ensemble forecast at the same lag. Months close to 'now' use CFSv2's own recent observed SST (little uncertainty); months further out use the ensemble's actual forecast spread. The shaded band combines that ENSO-forecast uncertainty with the regression's own residual scatter, so it doesn't understate near-term noise.
This is a statistically-derived projection built from live public data (NASA GISTEMP + NOAA ERSST/CFSv2), not an official forecast product from any single agency — the fit (lag, R², and trend) recomputes on every refresh as new months of data arrive, so it updates itself rather than going stale like the two retired citations did.
El Niño shading (background bands on the chart) marks moderate-or-stronger months (Niño 3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) from the same live NOAA ERSST series — El Niño only, not La Niña, since this card's subject is specifically El Niño-driven floors.
Tropics · ENSO context · 30°S to 30°N
NOAA CRW CURRENT
2026-10-25 · Updated 6h ago
Tropics · ENSO context
The Pacific equatorial band — the El Niño signature is visible as a tongue of warmth along the equator. Pair with Panel 02 (ENSO).
SOURCE · crw_sst_anomaly_tropics
Southern Oscillation Index · Walker Circulation · 2026 against the 1951–2025 envelope · NOAA CPC monthly
NOAA CPC CURRENT
2026-09-01 · 54d old
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Historical mean 1997 2015 2023 2026 Historical range 1951–2025 (75 yrs), 5th–95th pct
How to read this: 2026 (purple) against every year 1951–2025. Negative = Walker Circulation weakening (El Niño conditions). 1997, 2015, and 2023 El Niño years shown for comparison. The deeper below zero 2026 runs, the stronger the atmospheric coupling.
Walker Circulation Coupling
El Niño Coupled
Niño 3.4 +2.4°C · SOI -2.0
Percentile Rank · Last 3 Months
Sep 1st ← Aug 8th ← Jul 1st
El Niño is not just a warm pool. It requires the Walker Circulation to break down and the atmosphere to actively amplify the anomaly. Persistent negative SOI is that confirmation.

The committed warming reservoir

Oceans absorb ~90% of excess planetary heat. This heat represents warming committed regardless of future emissions decisions.

Ocean Surface Temperature · Argo Float Network
CURRENT
Data through 2026-10-20
+0.89°C
vs WOA climatology by location
75% above · 25% below
Coverage
3,660 floats reporting
+0.15°C
vs WOA climatology by location
57% above · 43% below
Coverage
3,600 of 3,660 floats reporting
+-0.00°C
vs WOA climatology by location
46% above · 54% below
Coverage
3,471 of 3,660 floats reporting
+0.03°C
vs WOA climatology by location
56% above · 44% below
Coverage
3,280 of 3,660 floats reporting
EL NIÑO SIGNAL
+3.20°C
269 floats in region
AMOC FINGERPRINT
+0.13°C
130 floats in region
ARCTIC ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION FASTEST WARMING OCEAN REGION
+0.82°C
89 floats in region
NORTH PACIFIC MARINE HEATWAVE REGION
+1.60°C
97 floats in region
SOUTHERN OCEAN PRIMARY HEAT SINK
-0.03°C
322 floats in region
INDIAN OCEAN FASTEST WARMING BASIN
+1.13°C
162 floats in region
ATLANTIC MDR HURRICANE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION
+1.35°C
132 floats in region
GULF OF MEXICO HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION ZONE
+1.22°C
36 floats in region
MEDITERRANEAN FASTEST WARMING SEA
+1.02°C
77 floats in region
GLOBAL ANOMALIES OFF THE NORMAL SCALE
323
284 warm · 39 cold
Hover over Regions

Choose your depth

Atmospheric forcing signal — what's happening now · Argo float anomalies vs WOA climatology
The ocean doesn't care about the political calendar.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Argovis API (argovis-api.colorado.edu); Argo Program (Argo, 2024). 3,800+ autonomous profiling floats operated by ~30 nations. Each float descends to 2,000 m and measures temperature and salinity as it rises, transmitting via satellite every ~10 days. Surface temperature shown at 0–30 dbar depth. Raw degrees Celsius — no anomaly baseline applied. Blue = polar cold, orange/red = tropical warm. Data window: rolling 10-day, de-duplicated to one reading per float.
Recent Global Sea Surface Temperature · 2026 against the 1981–2025 envelope
Climate Reanalyzer / OISST v2.1 IAP/CAS · Cheng et al. CURRENT
2026-10-23 · 2d old
1940–2026 · one July per year
21.02°C
+0.83°C vs 1991–2020 mean · Oct 23
Upper Edge of Envelope
2026 above the 1981–2025 mean
295 of 295 days YTD
Calendar-Day Records
155 of 295 days set
an all-time calendar-day record
Hotter Than 2024
155 of 295 days
above the 2024 trace
Today in Context
Oct 23 · 2026 ranks #1 of 46 years
19.5°C 20.0°C 20.5°C 21.0°C 21.5°C Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Hover the chart to compare years
Historical mean 1982 1997 2015 2023 2024 2025 2026 Historical range 1981–2025 (45 yrs)
+0.75°C
1980 → 2026 at the surface (1m)
Signal Depth
2000m
warming exceeds 2× the 1940–1969 natural variability down to this depth
1km Turning Point
1996
first year the 1km layer turned anomaly-positive and stayed there
1940 · 1m · -0.35°C · 66% grid coverage 1940 · 50m · -0.21°C · 63% grid coverage 1940 · 100m · -0.28°C · 62% grid coverage 1940 · 300m · -0.18°C · 59% grid coverage 1940 · 500m · -0.10°C · 57% grid coverage 1940 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1940 · 1000m · -0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 1940 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1940 · 3000m · -0.03°C · 45% grid coverage 1940 · 4000m · -0.03°C · 30% grid coverage 1940 · 5000m · -0.03°C · 11% grid coverage 1941 · 1m · -0.25°C · 66% grid coverage 1941 · 50m · -0.12°C · 63% grid coverage 1941 · 100m · -0.23°C · 62% grid coverage 1941 · 300m · -0.19°C · 59% grid coverage 1941 · 500m · -0.10°C · 57% grid coverage 1941 · 700m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1941 · 1000m · -0.06°C · 56% grid coverage 1941 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1941 · 3000m · -0.03°C · 45% grid coverage 1941 · 4000m · -0.03°C · 30% grid coverage 1941 · 5000m · -0.03°C · 11% grid coverage 1942 · 1m · -0.18°C · 66% grid coverage 1942 · 50m · -0.15°C · 63% grid coverage 1942 · 100m · -0.24°C · 62% grid coverage 1942 · 300m · -0.14°C · 59% grid coverage 1942 · 500m · -0.10°C · 57% grid coverage 1942 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1942 · 1000m · -0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 1942 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1942 · 3000m · -0.03°C · 45% grid coverage 1942 · 4000m · -0.03°C · 30% grid coverage 1942 · 5000m · -0.03°C · 11% grid coverage 1943 · 1m · -0.17°C · 66% grid coverage 1943 · 50m · -0.21°C · 63% grid coverage 1943 · 100m · -0.24°C · 62% grid coverage 1943 · 300m · -0.06°C · 59% grid coverage 1943 · 500m · -0.10°C · 57% grid coverage 1943 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1943 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1943 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1943 · 3000m · -0.03°C · 45% grid coverage 1943 · 4000m · -0.03°C · 30% grid coverage 1943 · 5000m · -0.03°C · 11% grid coverage 1944 · 1m · -0.30°C · 66% grid coverage 1944 · 50m · -0.26°C · 63% grid coverage 1944 · 100m · -0.11°C · 62% grid coverage 1944 · 300m · -0.13°C · 59% grid coverage 1944 · 500m · -0.10°C · 57% grid coverage 1944 · 700m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1944 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1944 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1944 · 3000m · -0.03°C · 45% grid coverage 1944 · 4000m · -0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 1944 · 5000m · -0.03°C · 11% grid coverage 1945 · 1m · -0.29°C · 66% grid coverage 1945 · 50m · -0.20°C · 63% grid coverage 1945 · 100m · -0.23°C · 62% grid coverage 1945 · 300m · -0.14°C · 59% grid coverage 1945 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1945 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1945 · 1000m · -0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 1945 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1945 · 3000m · -0.02°C · 45% grid coverage 1945 · 4000m · -0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 1945 · 5000m · -0.03°C · 11% grid coverage 1946 · 1m · -0.21°C · 66% grid coverage 1946 · 50m · -0.19°C · 63% grid coverage 1946 · 100m · -0.15°C · 62% grid coverage 1946 · 300m · -0.12°C · 59% grid coverage 1946 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1946 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1946 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1946 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1946 · 3000m · -0.02°C · 45% grid coverage 1946 · 4000m · -0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 1946 · 5000m · -0.03°C · 11% grid coverage 1947 · 1m · -0.24°C · 66% grid coverage 1947 · 50m · -0.15°C · 63% grid coverage 1947 · 100m · -0.20°C · 62% grid coverage 1947 · 300m · -0.12°C · 59% grid coverage 1947 · 500m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1947 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1947 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1947 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1947 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1947 · 4000m · -0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 1947 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1948 · 1m · -0.37°C · 66% grid coverage 1948 · 50m · -0.34°C · 63% grid coverage 1948 · 100m · -0.21°C · 62% grid coverage 1948 · 300m · -0.12°C · 59% grid coverage 1948 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1948 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1948 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1948 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1948 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1948 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1948 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1949 · 1m · -0.38°C · 66% grid coverage 1949 · 50m · -0.32°C · 63% grid coverage 1949 · 100m · -0.29°C · 62% grid coverage 1949 · 300m · -0.13°C · 59% grid coverage 1949 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1949 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1949 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1949 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1949 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1949 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1949 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1950 · 1m · -0.43°C · 66% grid coverage 1950 · 50m · -0.41°C · 63% grid coverage 1950 · 100m · -0.28°C · 62% grid coverage 1950 · 300m · -0.14°C · 59% grid coverage 1950 · 500m · -0.08°C · 57% grid coverage 1950 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1950 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1950 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1950 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1950 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1950 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1951 · 1m · -0.24°C · 66% grid coverage 1951 · 50m · -0.19°C · 63% grid coverage 1951 · 100m · -0.22°C · 62% grid coverage 1951 · 300m · -0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 1951 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1951 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1951 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1951 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1951 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1951 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1951 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1952 · 1m · -0.17°C · 66% grid coverage 1952 · 50m · -0.25°C · 63% grid coverage 1952 · 100m · -0.21°C · 62% grid coverage 1952 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1952 · 500m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1952 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1952 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1952 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1952 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1952 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1952 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1953 · 1m · -0.16°C · 66% grid coverage 1953 · 50m · -0.14°C · 63% grid coverage 1953 · 100m · -0.06°C · 62% grid coverage 1953 · 300m · -0.13°C · 59% grid coverage 1953 · 500m · -0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 1953 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1953 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1953 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1953 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1953 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1953 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1954 · 1m · -0.26°C · 66% grid coverage 1954 · 50m · -0.17°C · 63% grid coverage 1954 · 100m · -0.01°C · 62% grid coverage 1954 · 300m · -0.13°C · 59% grid coverage 1954 · 500m · -0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 1954 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1954 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1954 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1954 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1954 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1954 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1955 · 1m · -0.56°C · 66% grid coverage 1955 · 50m · -0.45°C · 63% grid coverage 1955 · 100m · -0.24°C · 62% grid coverage 1955 · 300m · -0.12°C · 59% grid coverage 1955 · 500m · -0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 1955 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1955 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1955 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1955 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1955 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1955 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1956 · 1m · -0.32°C · 66% grid coverage 1956 · 50m · -0.27°C · 63% grid coverage 1956 · 100m · -0.22°C · 62% grid coverage 1956 · 300m · -0.12°C · 59% grid coverage 1956 · 500m · -0.11°C · 57% grid coverage 1956 · 700m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1956 · 1000m · -0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 1956 · 2000m · -0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 1956 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1956 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1956 · 5000m · -0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1957 · 1m · -0.17°C · 66% grid coverage 1957 · 50m · -0.15°C · 63% grid coverage 1957 · 100m · -0.21°C · 62% grid coverage 1957 · 300m · -0.05°C · 59% grid coverage 1957 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1957 · 700m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1957 · 1000m · -0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 1957 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1957 · 3000m · -0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1957 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1957 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1958 · 1m · -0.11°C · 66% grid coverage 1958 · 50m · -0.02°C · 63% grid coverage 1958 · 100m · -0.07°C · 62% grid coverage 1958 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1958 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1958 · 700m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1958 · 1000m · -0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 1958 · 2000m · -0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 1958 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1958 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1958 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1959 · 1m · -0.25°C · 66% grid coverage 1959 · 50m · -0.15°C · 63% grid coverage 1959 · 100m · -0.09°C · 62% grid coverage 1959 · 300m · -0.08°C · 59% grid coverage 1959 · 500m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1959 · 700m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1959 · 1000m · -0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 1959 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1959 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1959 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1959 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1960 · 1m · -0.20°C · 66% grid coverage 1960 · 50m · -0.21°C · 63% grid coverage 1960 · 100m · -0.02°C · 62% grid coverage 1960 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1960 · 500m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1960 · 700m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1960 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1960 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1960 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1960 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1960 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1961 · 1m · -0.22°C · 66% grid coverage 1961 · 50m · -0.21°C · 63% grid coverage 1961 · 100m · -0.12°C · 62% grid coverage 1961 · 300m · -0.09°C · 59% grid coverage 1961 · 500m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1961 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1961 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1961 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1961 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1961 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1961 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1962 · 1m · -0.28°C · 66% grid coverage 1962 · 50m · -0.22°C · 63% grid coverage 1962 · 100m · -0.10°C · 62% grid coverage 1962 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1962 · 500m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1962 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1962 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1962 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1962 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1962 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1962 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1963 · 1m · -0.18°C · 66% grid coverage 1963 · 50m · -0.09°C · 63% grid coverage 1963 · 100m · -0.13°C · 62% grid coverage 1963 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1963 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1963 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1963 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1963 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1963 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1963 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1963 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1964 · 1m · -0.35°C · 66% grid coverage 1964 · 50m · -0.29°C · 63% grid coverage 1964 · 100m · -0.13°C · 62% grid coverage 1964 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1964 · 500m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1964 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1964 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1964 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1964 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1964 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1964 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1965 · 1m · -0.39°C · 66% grid coverage 1965 · 50m · -0.22°C · 63% grid coverage 1965 · 100m · -0.22°C · 62% grid coverage 1965 · 300m · -0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 1965 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1965 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1965 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1965 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1965 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1965 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1965 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1966 · 1m · -0.28°C · 66% grid coverage 1966 · 50m · -0.14°C · 63% grid coverage 1966 · 100m · -0.08°C · 62% grid coverage 1966 · 300m · -0.09°C · 59% grid coverage 1966 · 500m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1966 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1966 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1966 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1966 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1966 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1966 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1967 · 1m · -0.35°C · 66% grid coverage 1967 · 50m · -0.24°C · 63% grid coverage 1967 · 100m · -0.16°C · 62% grid coverage 1967 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1967 · 500m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1967 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1967 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1967 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1967 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1967 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1967 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1968 · 1m · -0.27°C · 66% grid coverage 1968 · 50m · -0.23°C · 63% grid coverage 1968 · 100m · -0.20°C · 62% grid coverage 1968 · 300m · -0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 1968 · 500m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1968 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1968 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1968 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1968 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1968 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1968 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1969 · 1m · -0.15°C · 66% grid coverage 1969 · 50m · -0.12°C · 63% grid coverage 1969 · 100m · -0.18°C · 62% grid coverage 1969 · 300m · -0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 1969 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1969 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1969 · 1000m · -0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 1969 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1969 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1969 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1969 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1970 · 1m · -0.26°C · 66% grid coverage 1970 · 50m · -0.28°C · 63% grid coverage 1970 · 100m · -0.15°C · 62% grid coverage 1970 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1970 · 500m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1970 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1970 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1970 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1970 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1970 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1970 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1971 · 1m · -0.34°C · 66% grid coverage 1971 · 50m · -0.30°C · 63% grid coverage 1971 · 100m · -0.16°C · 62% grid coverage 1971 · 300m · -0.06°C · 59% grid coverage 1971 · 500m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1971 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1971 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1971 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1971 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1971 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1971 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1972 · 1m · -0.23°C · 66% grid coverage 1972 · 50m · -0.16°C · 63% grid coverage 1972 · 100m · -0.23°C · 62% grid coverage 1972 · 300m · -0.08°C · 59% grid coverage 1972 · 500m · -0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 1972 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1972 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1972 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1972 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1972 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1972 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1973 · 1m · -0.23°C · 66% grid coverage 1973 · 50m · -0.19°C · 63% grid coverage 1973 · 100m · -0.13°C · 62% grid coverage 1973 · 300m · -0.08°C · 59% grid coverage 1973 · 500m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1973 · 700m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1973 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1973 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1973 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1973 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1973 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1974 · 1m · -0.36°C · 66% grid coverage 1974 · 50m · -0.26°C · 63% grid coverage 1974 · 100m · -0.14°C · 62% grid coverage 1974 · 300m · -0.04°C · 59% grid coverage 1974 · 500m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1974 · 700m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1974 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1974 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1974 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1974 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1974 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1975 · 1m · -0.40°C · 66% grid coverage 1975 · 50m · -0.30°C · 63% grid coverage 1975 · 100m · -0.20°C · 62% grid coverage 1975 · 300m · -0.03°C · 59% grid coverage 1975 · 500m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1975 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1975 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1975 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1975 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1975 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1975 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1976 · 1m · -0.33°C · 66% grid coverage 1976 · 50m · -0.21°C · 63% grid coverage 1976 · 100m · -0.11°C · 62% grid coverage 1976 · 300m · -0.05°C · 59% grid coverage 1976 · 500m · -0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 1976 · 700m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1976 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1976 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1976 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1976 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1976 · 5000m · +0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1977 · 1m · -0.10°C · 66% grid coverage 1977 · 50m · -0.07°C · 63% grid coverage 1977 · 100m · -0.07°C · 62% grid coverage 1977 · 300m · -0.04°C · 59% grid coverage 1977 · 500m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1977 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1977 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1977 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1977 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1977 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1977 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1978 · 1m · -0.20°C · 66% grid coverage 1978 · 50m · -0.11°C · 63% grid coverage 1978 · 100m · +0.02°C · 62% grid coverage 1978 · 300m · -0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 1978 · 500m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1978 · 700m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1978 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1978 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1978 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 1978 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1978 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1979 · 1m · -0.13°C · 66% grid coverage 1979 · 50m · -0.08°C · 63% grid coverage 1979 · 100m · -0.06°C · 62% grid coverage 1979 · 300m · -0.08°C · 59% grid coverage 1979 · 500m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1979 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1979 · 1000m · -0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 1979 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1979 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1979 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1979 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1980 · 1m · -0.07°C · 66% grid coverage 1980 · 50m · +0.02°C · 63% grid coverage 1980 · 100m · -0.04°C · 62% grid coverage 1980 · 300m · -0.02°C · 59% grid coverage 1980 · 500m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1980 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1980 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1980 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1980 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1980 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1980 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1981 · 1m · -0.14°C · 66% grid coverage 1981 · 50m · -0.09°C · 63% grid coverage 1981 · 100m · -0.04°C · 62% grid coverage 1981 · 300m · -0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 1981 · 500m · -0.00°C · 57% grid coverage 1981 · 700m · -0.00°C · 57% grid coverage 1981 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1981 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1981 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1981 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1981 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1982 · 1m · -0.20°C · 66% grid coverage 1982 · 50m · -0.04°C · 63% grid coverage 1982 · 100m · -0.04°C · 62% grid coverage 1982 · 300m · -0.08°C · 59% grid coverage 1982 · 500m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1982 · 700m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1982 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1982 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1982 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1982 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1982 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1983 · 1m · -0.09°C · 66% grid coverage 1983 · 50m · +0.06°C · 63% grid coverage 1983 · 100m · -0.05°C · 62% grid coverage 1983 · 300m · -0.12°C · 59% grid coverage 1983 · 500m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1983 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1983 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1983 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1983 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1983 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1983 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1984 · 1m · -0.12°C · 66% grid coverage 1984 · 50m · -0.22°C · 63% grid coverage 1984 · 100m · -0.12°C · 62% grid coverage 1984 · 300m · -0.08°C · 59% grid coverage 1984 · 500m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1984 · 700m · +0.00°C · 57% grid coverage 1984 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1984 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1984 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1984 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1984 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1985 · 1m · -0.18°C · 66% grid coverage 1985 · 50m · -0.15°C · 63% grid coverage 1985 · 100m · -0.04°C · 62% grid coverage 1985 · 300m · -0.03°C · 59% grid coverage 1985 · 500m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1985 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1985 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1985 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1985 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1985 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1985 · 5000m · -0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 1986 · 1m · -0.12°C · 66% grid coverage 1986 · 50m · -0.04°C · 63% grid coverage 1986 · 100m · -0.01°C · 62% grid coverage 1986 · 300m · -0.06°C · 59% grid coverage 1986 · 500m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1986 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1986 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1986 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1986 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1986 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1986 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1987 · 1m · +0.07°C · 66% grid coverage 1987 · 50m · +0.11°C · 63% grid coverage 1987 · 100m · -0.07°C · 62% grid coverage 1987 · 300m · -0.09°C · 59% grid coverage 1987 · 500m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1987 · 700m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1987 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1987 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1987 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1987 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1987 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1988 · 1m · -0.07°C · 66% grid coverage 1988 · 50m · -0.06°C · 63% grid coverage 1988 · 100m · -0.06°C · 62% grid coverage 1988 · 300m · -0.04°C · 59% grid coverage 1988 · 500m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1988 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1988 · 1000m · -0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 1988 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1988 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1988 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1988 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1989 · 1m · -0.09°C · 66% grid coverage 1989 · 50m · -0.07°C · 63% grid coverage 1989 · 100m · +0.01°C · 62% grid coverage 1989 · 300m · -0.06°C · 59% grid coverage 1989 · 500m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1989 · 700m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1989 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1989 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1989 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1989 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1989 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1990 · 1m · -0.01°C · 66% grid coverage 1990 · 50m · +0.02°C · 63% grid coverage 1990 · 100m · -0.04°C · 62% grid coverage 1990 · 300m · -0.11°C · 59% grid coverage 1990 · 500m · -0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 1990 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1990 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1990 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1990 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1990 · 4000m · -0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 1990 · 5000m · +0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1991 · 1m · +0.02°C · 66% grid coverage 1991 · 50m · +0.03°C · 63% grid coverage 1991 · 100m · -0.00°C · 62% grid coverage 1991 · 300m · -0.04°C · 59% grid coverage 1991 · 500m · -0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 1991 · 700m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1991 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1991 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1991 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1991 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1991 · 5000m · +0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1992 · 1m · -0.16°C · 66% grid coverage 1992 · 50m · -0.05°C · 63% grid coverage 1992 · 100m · -0.07°C · 62% grid coverage 1992 · 300m · -0.04°C · 59% grid coverage 1992 · 500m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1992 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1992 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1992 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1992 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1992 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1992 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1993 · 1m · -0.10°C · 66% grid coverage 1993 · 50m · -0.05°C · 63% grid coverage 1993 · 100m · -0.15°C · 62% grid coverage 1993 · 300m · -0.05°C · 59% grid coverage 1993 · 500m · -0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 1993 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1993 · 1000m · -0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1993 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1993 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1993 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1993 · 5000m · +0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1994 · 1m · -0.10°C · 66% grid coverage 1994 · 50m · -0.11°C · 63% grid coverage 1994 · 100m · -0.15°C · 62% grid coverage 1994 · 300m · -0.02°C · 59% grid coverage 1994 · 500m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1994 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1994 · 1000m · -0.00°C · 56% grid coverage 1994 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1994 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1994 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1994 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1995 · 1m · -0.04°C · 66% grid coverage 1995 · 50m · -0.07°C · 63% grid coverage 1995 · 100m · -0.11°C · 62% grid coverage 1995 · 300m · -0.00°C · 59% grid coverage 1995 · 500m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1995 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1995 · 1000m · -0.00°C · 56% grid coverage 1995 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 1995 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1995 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1995 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1996 · 1m · -0.06°C · 66% grid coverage 1996 · 50m · -0.09°C · 63% grid coverage 1996 · 100m · -0.04°C · 62% grid coverage 1996 · 300m · +0.01°C · 59% grid coverage 1996 · 500m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1996 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1996 · 1000m · +0.00°C · 56% grid coverage 1996 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1996 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1996 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1996 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1997 · 1m · +0.09°C · 66% grid coverage 1997 · 50m · +0.07°C · 63% grid coverage 1997 · 100m · -0.08°C · 62% grid coverage 1997 · 300m · -0.01°C · 59% grid coverage 1997 · 500m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1997 · 700m · -0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 1997 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1997 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1997 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1997 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1997 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1998 · 1m · +0.18°C · 66% grid coverage 1998 · 50m · +0.08°C · 63% grid coverage 1998 · 100m · -0.01°C · 62% grid coverage 1998 · 300m · +0.02°C · 59% grid coverage 1998 · 500m · +0.00°C · 57% grid coverage 1998 · 700m · -0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1998 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1998 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1998 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1998 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1998 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 1999 · 1m · -0.02°C · 66% grid coverage 1999 · 50m · -0.09°C · 63% grid coverage 1999 · 100m · -0.02°C · 62% grid coverage 1999 · 300m · +0.05°C · 59% grid coverage 1999 · 500m · +0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 1999 · 700m · +0.00°C · 57% grid coverage 1999 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 1999 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 1999 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 1999 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 1999 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 2000 · 1m · -0.04°C · 66% grid coverage 2000 · 50m · -0.04°C · 63% grid coverage 2000 · 100m · +0.02°C · 62% grid coverage 2000 · 300m · +0.05°C · 59% grid coverage 2000 · 500m · +0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 2000 · 700m · +0.00°C · 57% grid coverage 2000 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 2000 · 2000m · -0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2000 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2000 · 4000m · -0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2000 · 5000m · -0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 2001 · 1m · +0.06°C · 66% grid coverage 2001 · 50m · +0.04°C · 63% grid coverage 2001 · 100m · +0.06°C · 62% grid coverage 2001 · 300m · +0.03°C · 59% grid coverage 2001 · 500m · +0.01°C · 57% grid coverage 2001 · 700m · +0.00°C · 57% grid coverage 2001 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 2001 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 2001 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2001 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2001 · 5000m · +0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 2002 · 1m · +0.07°C · 66% grid coverage 2002 · 50m · +0.09°C · 63% grid coverage 2002 · 100m · +0.11°C · 62% grid coverage 2002 · 300m · +0.05°C · 59% grid coverage 2002 · 500m · +0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 2002 · 700m · +0.02°C · 57% grid coverage 2002 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 2002 · 2000m · -0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 2002 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2002 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2002 · 5000m · +0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 2003 · 1m · +0.13°C · 66% grid coverage 2003 · 50m · +0.08°C · 63% grid coverage 2003 · 100m · +0.07°C · 62% grid coverage 2003 · 300m · +0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 2003 · 500m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2003 · 700m · +0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 2003 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 2003 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 2003 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2003 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2003 · 5000m · +0.00°C · 11% grid coverage 2004 · 1m · +0.11°C · 66% grid coverage 2004 · 50m · +0.06°C · 63% grid coverage 2004 · 100m · +0.15°C · 62% grid coverage 2004 · 300m · +0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 2004 · 500m · +0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 2004 · 700m · +0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 2004 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 2004 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 2004 · 3000m · -0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2004 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2004 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2005 · 1m · +0.14°C · 66% grid coverage 2005 · 50m · +0.09°C · 63% grid coverage 2005 · 100m · +0.09°C · 62% grid coverage 2005 · 300m · +0.07°C · 59% grid coverage 2005 · 500m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2005 · 700m · +0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 2005 · 1000m · +0.01°C · 56% grid coverage 2005 · 2000m · +0.00°C · 52% grid coverage 2005 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2005 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2005 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2006 · 1m · +0.14°C · 66% grid coverage 2006 · 50m · +0.12°C · 63% grid coverage 2006 · 100m · +0.12°C · 62% grid coverage 2006 · 300m · +0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 2006 · 500m · +0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 2006 · 700m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2006 · 1000m · +0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 2006 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2006 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2006 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2006 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2007 · 1m · +0.08°C · 66% grid coverage 2007 · 50m · +0.05°C · 63% grid coverage 2007 · 100m · +0.12°C · 62% grid coverage 2007 · 300m · +0.08°C · 59% grid coverage 2007 · 500m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2007 · 700m · +0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 2007 · 1000m · +0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 2007 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2007 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2007 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2007 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2008 · 1m · +0.11°C · 66% grid coverage 2008 · 50m · +0.04°C · 63% grid coverage 2008 · 100m · +0.10°C · 62% grid coverage 2008 · 300m · +0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 2008 · 500m · +0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 2008 · 700m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2008 · 1000m · +0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 2008 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2008 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2008 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2008 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2009 · 1m · +0.20°C · 66% grid coverage 2009 · 50m · +0.17°C · 63% grid coverage 2009 · 100m · +0.12°C · 62% grid coverage 2009 · 300m · +0.09°C · 59% grid coverage 2009 · 500m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2009 · 700m · +0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 2009 · 1000m · +0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 2009 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2009 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2009 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2009 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2010 · 1m · +0.14°C · 66% grid coverage 2010 · 50m · +0.09°C · 63% grid coverage 2010 · 100m · +0.14°C · 62% grid coverage 2010 · 300m · +0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 2010 · 500m · +0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 2010 · 700m · +0.03°C · 57% grid coverage 2010 · 1000m · +0.02°C · 56% grid coverage 2010 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2010 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2010 · 4000m · +0.00°C · 30% grid coverage 2010 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2011 · 1m · +0.11°C · 66% grid coverage 2011 · 50m · +0.07°C · 63% grid coverage 2011 · 100m · +0.17°C · 62% grid coverage 2011 · 300m · +0.11°C · 59% grid coverage 2011 · 500m · +0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 2011 · 700m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2011 · 1000m · +0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 2011 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2011 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2011 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2011 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2012 · 1m · +0.15°C · 66% grid coverage 2012 · 50m · +0.11°C · 63% grid coverage 2012 · 100m · +0.16°C · 62% grid coverage 2012 · 300m · +0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 2012 · 500m · +0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 2012 · 700m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2012 · 1000m · +0.03°C · 56% grid coverage 2012 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2012 · 3000m · +0.00°C · 45% grid coverage 2012 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2012 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2013 · 1m · +0.16°C · 66% grid coverage 2013 · 50m · +0.11°C · 63% grid coverage 2013 · 100m · +0.19°C · 62% grid coverage 2013 · 300m · +0.11°C · 59% grid coverage 2013 · 500m · +0.05°C · 57% grid coverage 2013 · 700m · +0.04°C · 57% grid coverage 2013 · 1000m · +0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 2013 · 2000m · +0.01°C · 52% grid coverage 2013 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2013 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2013 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2014 · 1m · +0.26°C · 66% grid coverage 2014 · 50m · +0.15°C · 63% grid coverage 2014 · 100m · +0.17°C · 62% grid coverage 2014 · 300m · +0.13°C · 59% grid coverage 2014 · 500m · +0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 2014 · 700m · +0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 2014 · 1000m · +0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 2014 · 2000m · +0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 2014 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2014 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2014 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2015 · 1m · +0.36°C · 66% grid coverage 2015 · 50m · +0.30°C · 63% grid coverage 2015 · 100m · +0.17°C · 62% grid coverage 2015 · 300m · +0.12°C · 59% grid coverage 2015 · 500m · +0.08°C · 57% grid coverage 2015 · 700m · +0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 2015 · 1000m · +0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 2015 · 2000m · +0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 2015 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2015 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2015 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2016 · 1m · +0.39°C · 66% grid coverage 2016 · 50m · +0.28°C · 63% grid coverage 2016 · 100m · +0.25°C · 62% grid coverage 2016 · 300m · +0.10°C · 59% grid coverage 2016 · 500m · +0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 2016 · 700m · +0.06°C · 57% grid coverage 2016 · 1000m · +0.04°C · 56% grid coverage 2016 · 2000m · +0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 2016 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2016 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2016 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2017 · 1m · +0.37°C · 66% grid coverage 2017 · 50m · +0.30°C · 63% grid coverage 2017 · 100m · +0.26°C · 62% grid coverage 2017 · 300m · +0.13°C · 59% grid coverage 2017 · 500m · +0.08°C · 57% grid coverage 2017 · 700m · +0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 2017 · 1000m · +0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 2017 · 2000m · +0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 2017 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2017 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2017 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2018 · 1m · +0.26°C · 66% grid coverage 2018 · 50m · +0.23°C · 63% grid coverage 2018 · 100m · +0.25°C · 62% grid coverage 2018 · 300m · +0.14°C · 59% grid coverage 2018 · 500m · +0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 2018 · 700m · +0.07°C · 57% grid coverage 2018 · 1000m · +0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 2018 · 2000m · +0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 2018 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2018 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2018 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2019 · 1m · +0.43°C · 66% grid coverage 2019 · 50m · +0.32°C · 63% grid coverage 2019 · 100m · +0.28°C · 62% grid coverage 2019 · 300m · +0.15°C · 59% grid coverage 2019 · 500m · +0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 2019 · 700m · +0.08°C · 57% grid coverage 2019 · 1000m · +0.05°C · 56% grid coverage 2019 · 2000m · +0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 2019 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2019 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2019 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2020 · 1m · +0.38°C · 66% grid coverage 2020 · 50m · +0.26°C · 63% grid coverage 2020 · 100m · +0.27°C · 62% grid coverage 2020 · 300m · +0.15°C · 59% grid coverage 2020 · 500m · +0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 2020 · 700m · +0.08°C · 57% grid coverage 2020 · 1000m · +0.06°C · 56% grid coverage 2020 · 2000m · +0.02°C · 52% grid coverage 2020 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2020 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2020 · 5000m · +0.01°C · 11% grid coverage 2021 · 1m · +0.32°C · 66% grid coverage 2021 · 50m · +0.26°C · 63% grid coverage 2021 · 100m · +0.30°C · 62% grid coverage 2021 · 300m · +0.18°C · 59% grid coverage 2021 · 500m · +0.11°C · 57% grid coverage 2021 · 700m · +0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 2021 · 1000m · +0.06°C · 56% grid coverage 2021 · 2000m · +0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 2021 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2021 · 4000m · +0.01°C · 30% grid coverage 2021 · 5000m · +0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 2022 · 1m · +0.33°C · 66% grid coverage 2022 · 50m · +0.19°C · 63% grid coverage 2022 · 100m · +0.32°C · 62% grid coverage 2022 · 300m · +0.21°C · 59% grid coverage 2022 · 500m · +0.12°C · 57% grid coverage 2022 · 700m · +0.10°C · 57% grid coverage 2022 · 1000m · +0.07°C · 56% grid coverage 2022 · 2000m · +0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 2022 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2022 · 4000m · +0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 2022 · 5000m · +0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 2023 · 1m · +0.62°C · 66% grid coverage 2023 · 50m · +0.51°C · 63% grid coverage 2023 · 100m · +0.34°C · 62% grid coverage 2023 · 300m · +0.20°C · 59% grid coverage 2023 · 500m · +0.11°C · 57% grid coverage 2023 · 700m · +0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 2023 · 1000m · +0.06°C · 56% grid coverage 2023 · 2000m · +0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 2023 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2023 · 4000m · +0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 2023 · 5000m · +0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 2024 · 1m · +0.62°C · 66% grid coverage 2024 · 50m · +0.49°C · 63% grid coverage 2024 · 100m · +0.42°C · 62% grid coverage 2024 · 300m · +0.21°C · 59% grid coverage 2024 · 500m · +0.11°C · 57% grid coverage 2024 · 700m · +0.09°C · 57% grid coverage 2024 · 1000m · +0.06°C · 56% grid coverage 2024 · 2000m · +0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 2024 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2024 · 4000m · +0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 2024 · 5000m · +0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 2025 · 1m · +0.53°C · 66% grid coverage 2025 · 50m · +0.39°C · 63% grid coverage 2025 · 100m · +0.47°C · 62% grid coverage 2025 · 300m · +0.24°C · 59% grid coverage 2025 · 500m · +0.14°C · 57% grid coverage 2025 · 700m · +0.11°C · 57% grid coverage 2025 · 1000m · +0.07°C · 56% grid coverage 2025 · 2000m · +0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 2025 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2025 · 4000m · +0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 2025 · 5000m · +0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 2026 · 1m · +0.68°C · 66% grid coverage 2026 · 50m · +0.67°C · 63% grid coverage 2026 · 100m · +0.45°C · 62% grid coverage 2026 · 300m · +0.22°C · 59% grid coverage 2026 · 500m · +0.15°C · 57% grid coverage 2026 · 700m · +0.11°C · 57% grid coverage 2026 · 1000m · +0.08°C · 56% grid coverage 2026 · 2000m · +0.03°C · 52% grid coverage 2026 · 3000m · +0.01°C · 45% grid coverage 2026 · 4000m · +0.02°C · 30% grid coverage 2026 · 5000m · +0.02°C · 11% grid coverage 1m 50m 100m 300m 500m 700m 1km 2km 3km 4km 5km 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2026 SPARSER COVERAGE BEFORE 1970
How to read this: Each band is the daily min–max range across 1981–2025; the dashed line is the historical mean; the purple line is 2026. Reference years are each individually color-coded — 1982 (grey, a cool early-record year), 1997 (teal, peak of the original super El Niño), 2015 (gold) and 2023 (red), peaks of prior strong El Niño events, 2024 (orange, the hottest year on record), and 2025 (light grey, the immediate predecessor). 2026 is tracking along the upper edge of the 45-year envelope, running with or just above 2025 — the global ocean surface sitting at the hottest end of everything observed in the satellite era. Parsed from Climate Reanalyzer's underlying JSON and drawn server-side.
How to read this: one column per year (1940–2026), one row per depth (surface at top, 5km at bottom). Color is temperature anomaly vs. IAP/CAS's 1981–2010 baseline, on the SAME scale at every depth — a warming surface and a barely-moving deep ocean are directly comparable. Sampled each July (the anomaly is already deseasonalized, so one consistent month carries no seasonal bias). Years before 1970 draw on sparser XBT/ship-based coverage and are shown at reduced opacity.
The Committed Reservoir · Air vs Ocean CURRENT
The air is the symptom. The ocean is the savings account — and the account keeps filling even when the symptom plateaus.
LATEST · AIR +1.4 °C (2025) · OCEAN 0-700M +0.2 °C (2026) · DEEP 700-2000M +0.05 °C (2026)
EARTH · EEIEARTH 2001: +0.88 W/m² (z -0.6)EARTH 2002: +0.37 W/m² (z -1.8)EARTH 2003: +0.55 W/m² (z -1.4)EARTH 2004: +0.79 W/m² (z -0.8)EARTH 2005: +0.77 W/m² (z -0.9)EARTH 2006: +0.96 W/m² (z -0.4)EARTH 2007: +0.65 W/m² (z -1.2)EARTH 2008: +0.90 W/m² (z -0.5)EARTH 2009: +1.40 W/m² (z +0.7)EARTH 2010: +0.50 W/m² (z -1.5)EARTH 2011: +0.71 W/m² (z -1.0)EARTH 2012: +1.26 W/m² (z +0.3)EARTH 2013: +1.10 W/m² (z -0.1)EARTH 2014: +0.98 W/m² (z -0.4)EARTH 2015: +1.19 W/m² (z +0.2)EARTH 2016: +1.12 W/m² (z -0.0)EARTH 2017: +1.42 W/m² (z +0.7)EARTH 2018: +1.20 W/m² (z +0.2)EARTH 2019: +1.64 W/m² (z +1.2)EARTH 2020: +1.32 W/m² (z +0.5)EARTH 2021: +1.28 W/m² (z +0.3)EARTH 2022: +1.70 W/m² (z +1.4)EARTH 2023: +2.06 W/m² (z +2.2)EARTH 2024: +1.36 W/m² (z +0.6)EARTH 2025: +1.37 W/m² (z +0.6)EARTH 2026: +1.89 W/m² (z +1.8)AIR · 2 mAIR 1880: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1881: +0.1 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1882: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1883: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1884: -0.1 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1885: -0.1 °C (z -1.0)AIR 1886: -0.1 °C (z -1.0)AIR 1887: -0.1 °C (z -1.1)AIR 1888: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1889: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1890: -0.1 °C (z -1.1)AIR 1891: +0.0 °C (z -0.8)AIR 1892: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1893: -0.1 °C (z -1.0)AIR 1894: -0.1 °C (z -1.0)AIR 1895: -0.0 °C (z -0.8)AIR 1896: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1897: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1898: -0.1 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1899: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1900: +0.1 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1901: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1902: -0.1 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1903: -0.1 °C (z -1.1)AIR 1904: -0.2 °C (z -1.4)AIR 1905: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1906: +0.0 °C (z -0.8)AIR 1907: -0.2 °C (z -1.2)AIR 1908: -0.2 °C (z -1.3)AIR 1909: -0.3 °C (z -1.4)AIR 1910: -0.2 °C (z -1.3)AIR 1911: -0.2 °C (z -1.3)AIR 1912: -0.1 °C (z -1.1)AIR 1913: -0.1 °C (z -1.1)AIR 1914: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1915: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1916: -0.1 °C (z -1.1)AIR 1917: -0.2 °C (z -1.4)AIR 1918: -0.1 °C (z -1.0)AIR 1919: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1920: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1921: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1922: -0.1 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1923: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1924: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1925: +0.0 °C (z -0.8)AIR 1926: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1927: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1928: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1929: -0.1 °C (z -1.1)AIR 1930: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1931: +0.1 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1932: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1933: -0.1 °C (z -0.9)AIR 1934: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1935: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1936: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1937: +0.2 °C (z -0.3)AIR 1938: +0.2 °C (z -0.2)AIR 1939: +0.2 °C (z -0.3)AIR 1940: +0.3 °C (z +0.1)AIR 1941: +0.4 °C (z +0.2)AIR 1942: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1943: +0.3 °C (z +0.0)AIR 1944: +0.4 °C (z +0.3)AIR 1945: +0.3 °C (z +0.0)AIR 1946: +0.2 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1947: +0.2 °C (z -0.3)AIR 1948: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1949: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1950: +0.0 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1951: +0.2 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1952: +0.2 °C (z -0.2)AIR 1953: +0.3 °C (z -0.0)AIR 1954: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1955: +0.1 °C (z -0.6)AIR 1956: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1957: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1958: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1959: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1960: +0.2 °C (z -0.3)AIR 1961: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1962: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1963: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1964: +0.0 °C (z -0.7)AIR 1965: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1966: +0.2 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1967: +0.2 °C (z -0.3)AIR 1968: +0.1 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1969: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1970: +0.3 °C (z -0.1)AIR 1971: +0.1 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1972: +0.2 °C (z -0.2)AIR 1973: +0.4 °C (z +0.2)AIR 1974: +0.2 °C (z -0.4)AIR 1975: +0.2 °C (z -0.2)AIR 1976: +0.1 °C (z -0.5)AIR 1977: +0.4 °C (z +0.2)AIR 1978: +0.3 °C (z -0.0)AIR 1979: +0.4 °C (z +0.2)AIR 1980: +0.5 °C (z +0.4)AIR 1981: +0.5 °C (z +0.6)AIR 1982: +0.4 °C (z +0.1)AIR 1983: +0.5 °C (z +0.6)AIR 1984: +0.4 °C (z +0.2)AIR 1985: +0.3 °C (z +0.1)AIR 1986: +0.4 °C (z +0.2)AIR 1987: +0.5 °C (z +0.6)AIR 1988: +0.6 °C (z +0.8)AIR 1989: +0.5 °C (z +0.5)AIR 1990: +0.7 °C (z +0.9)AIR 1991: +0.6 °C (z +0.8)AIR 1992: +0.4 °C (z +0.3)AIR 1993: +0.5 °C (z +0.4)AIR 1994: +0.5 °C (z +0.6)AIR 1995: +0.7 °C (z +0.9)AIR 1996: +0.6 °C (z +0.6)AIR 1997: +0.7 °C (z +1.0)AIR 1998: +0.8 °C (z +1.3)AIR 1999: +0.6 °C (z +0.8)AIR 2000: +0.6 °C (z +0.8)AIR 2001: +0.8 °C (z +1.1)AIR 2002: +0.9 °C (z +1.4)AIR 2003: +0.8 °C (z +1.3)AIR 2004: +0.8 °C (z +1.1)AIR 2005: +0.9 °C (z +1.5)AIR 2006: +0.9 °C (z +1.4)AIR 2007: +0.9 °C (z +1.5)AIR 2008: +0.8 °C (z +1.2)AIR 2009: +0.9 °C (z +1.4)AIR 2010: +0.9 °C (z +1.6)AIR 2011: +0.8 °C (z +1.3)AIR 2012: +0.9 °C (z +1.4)AIR 2013: +0.9 °C (z +1.5)AIR 2014: +1.0 °C (z +1.7)AIR 2015: +1.1 °C (z +2.0)AIR 2016: +1.2 °C (z +2.3)AIR 2017: +1.1 °C (z +2.1)AIR 2018: +1.1 °C (z +1.9)AIR 2019: +1.2 °C (z +2.2)AIR 2020: +1.2 °C (z +2.3)AIR 2021: +1.1 °C (z +1.9)AIR 2022: +1.1 °C (z +2.0)AIR 2023: +1.4 °C (z +2.7)AIR 2024: +1.5 °C (z +3.0)AIR 2025: +1.4 °C (z +2.8)OCEAN · 0-700 mOCEAN 1955: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 1956: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 1957: -0.0 °C (z -1.1)OCEAN 1958: -0.0 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 1959: -0.0 °C (z -0.8)OCEAN 1960: -0.0 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 1961: -0.0 °C (z -0.8)OCEAN 1962: -0.0 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 1963: -0.0 °C (z -0.8)OCEAN 1964: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 1965: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 1966: -0.0 °C (z -1.0)OCEAN 1967: -0.0 °C (z -1.1)OCEAN 1968: -0.1 °C (z -1.2)OCEAN 1969: -0.0 °C (z -1.1)OCEAN 1970: -0.1 °C (z -1.2)OCEAN 1971: -0.0 °C (z -1.0)OCEAN 1972: -0.1 °C (z -1.2)OCEAN 1973: -0.0 °C (z -1.0)OCEAN 1974: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 1975: -0.0 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 1976: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 1977: +0.0 °C (z -0.5)OCEAN 1978: +0.0 °C (z -0.5)OCEAN 1979: -0.0 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 1980: +0.0 °C (z -0.4)OCEAN 1981: +0.0 °C (z -0.5)OCEAN 1982: -0.0 °C (z -0.8)OCEAN 1983: -0.0 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 1984: -0.0 °C (z -0.6)OCEAN 1985: +0.0 °C (z -0.5)OCEAN 1986: -0.0 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 1987: -0.0 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 1988: +0.0 °C (z -0.4)OCEAN 1989: +0.0 °C (z -0.4)OCEAN 1990: +0.0 °C (z -0.5)OCEAN 1991: +0.0 °C (z -0.2)OCEAN 1992: +0.0 °C (z -0.5)OCEAN 1993: +0.0 °C (z -0.5)OCEAN 1994: +0.0 °C (z -0.4)OCEAN 1995: +0.0 °C (z -0.3)OCEAN 1996: +0.0 °C (z +0.0)OCEAN 1997: +0.0 °C (z -0.1)OCEAN 1998: +0.0 °C (z -0.0)OCEAN 1999: +0.1 °C (z +0.2)OCEAN 2000: +0.1 °C (z +0.2)OCEAN 2001: +0.0 °C (z -0.0)OCEAN 2002: +0.1 °C (z +0.3)OCEAN 2003: +0.1 °C (z +0.7)OCEAN 2004: +0.1 °C (z +0.7)OCEAN 2005: +0.1 °C (z +0.5)OCEAN 2006: +0.1 °C (z +0.7)OCEAN 2007: +0.1 °C (z +0.6)OCEAN 2008: +0.1 °C (z +0.7)OCEAN 2009: +0.1 °C (z +0.7)OCEAN 2010: +0.1 °C (z +0.7)OCEAN 2011: +0.1 °C (z +0.8)OCEAN 2012: +0.1 °C (z +0.8)OCEAN 2013: +0.1 °C (z +1.0)OCEAN 2014: +0.1 °C (z +1.1)OCEAN 2015: +0.1 °C (z +1.3)OCEAN 2016: +0.1 °C (z +1.2)OCEAN 2017: +0.2 °C (z +1.4)OCEAN 2018: +0.2 °C (z +1.5)OCEAN 2019: +0.2 °C (z +1.6)OCEAN 2020: +0.2 °C (z +1.6)OCEAN 2021: +0.2 °C (z +1.8)OCEAN 2022: +0.2 °C (z +1.9)OCEAN 2023: +0.2 °C (z +2.0)OCEAN 2024: +0.2 °C (z +2.1)OCEAN 2025: +0.2 °C (z +2.3)OCEAN 2026: +0.2 °C (z +2.5)OCEAN · 700-2000 mOCEAN 2005: +0.01 °C (z -1.9)OCEAN 2006: +0.01 °C (z -1.7)OCEAN 2007: +0.02 °C (z -1.4)OCEAN 2008: +0.02 °C (z -1.3)OCEAN 2009: +0.02 °C (z -1.2)OCEAN 2010: +0.02 °C (z -0.9)OCEAN 2011: +0.02 °C (z -0.7)OCEAN 2012: +0.03 °C (z -0.4)OCEAN 2013: +0.03 °C (z -0.1)OCEAN 2014: +0.04 °C (z +0.2)OCEAN 2015: +0.04 °C (z +0.4)OCEAN 2016: +0.04 °C (z +0.2)OCEAN 2017: +0.04 °C (z +0.6)OCEAN 2018: +0.04 °C (z +0.4)OCEAN 2019: +0.04 °C (z +0.6)OCEAN 2020: +0.04 °C (z +0.7)OCEAN 2021: +0.04 °C (z +0.9)OCEAN 2022: +0.04 °C (z +0.9)OCEAN 2023: +0.04 °C (z +0.9)OCEAN 2024: +0.05 °C (z +1.0)OCEAN 2025: +0.05 °C (z +1.4)OCEAN 2026: +0.05 °C (z +1.4)188018901900191019201930194019501960197019801990200020102020
EARTH · EEI NASA CERES EBAF · W/m² net energy imbalance — the inflow · latest = YTD
AIR · 2 m NASA GISTEMP v4 · annual anomaly vs 1951-80
OCEAN · 0-700 m NOAA NCEI WOA · layer-mean °C change vs 1955-2006
OCEAN · 700-2000 m NOAA NCEI WOA deep (full minus upper) · layer-mean °C change
COLOR = HOW UNUSUAL THIS YEAR WAS FOR ITS OWN ROW · EEI IN W/m², ALL OTHER ROWS °C
Latest observation: CERES 2026-08 · GISTEMP 2025 · NCEI 2026 · CERES runs ~3 months behind; annual cells are calendar-year means (current year = YTD).
SOURCES: NASA GISTEMP v4 · NOAA NCEI WOA (heat content ÷ ocean heat capacity) · NASA CERES EBAF
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
CURRENT
Latest observation: 2026-06-30
117d old · fetched 2026-10-25
Source
Depth
Hemisphere
Upper-ocean heat anomaly above the 1955–2006 baseline
240.7ZJ
≈ 401 yrs of global energy use
zettajoules (10²¹ J) above 1955–2006 baseline
+11.0 ZJ / YR
past decade · 1955–2006 baseline
NH / SH DIVERGENCE
-23.5 ZJ
Southern Ocean absorbing more heat
Southern Hemisphere is ~81% ocean — it buffers heat more efficiently, so divergence signals asymmetric planetary warming.
-100 0 100 200 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 ——
RATE OF ACCUMULATION · ZJ PER YEAR BY DECADE
+1.5 ZJ/yr1955–1980
+1.7 ZJ/yr1980–2000
+6.9 ZJ/yr2000–2015
+7.5 ZJ/yr2015–present
ⓘ methodology & sources
NCEI/NOAA quarterly mean heat content anomaly relative to the 1955–2006 baseline. Upper ocean (0–700 m): available 1955–present; stores roughly half of all excess planetary heat. Deep ocean (700–2000 m): derived series (0–2000 m minus 0–700 m); available from 2005 when the Argo float array reached full coverage. The 700–2000 m layer is a slow, near-irreversible store representing committed warming regardless of future emissions. 1 ZJ = 10²¹ J. Source: NOAA/NCEI · Levitus et al.
SOURCE · NCEI · NOAA/NESDIS · LEVITUS ET AL.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
CURRENT
Latest composite
through 2026-10-09
Heat available at depth to fuel hurricane rapid intensification — not just surface temperature
63.2 kJ/cm²
D26 (26°C isotherm): 54.4 m
Above rapid-intensification threshold
63.7 kJ/cm²
D26 (26°C isotherm): 58.8 m
Above rapid-intensification threshold
Rapid-Intensification Threshold
50 kJ/cm² · Shay, Goni & Black (2000)
2026-10-09 · Gulf 63.2 · MDR 63.7 kJ/cm²
0 25 50 75 100 2023 2024 2025 2026 Rapid-intensification threshold (literature) · 50 kJ/cm²RI threshold
Gulf of Mexico Atlantic MDR RI threshold (50 kJ/cm²)
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Ocean Heat Content Suite (SOHCS), NCEI THREDDS (no auth). TCHP is the integral of ocean heat content from the surface to the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26) — the layer of warm water a hurricane can churn up before reaching cooler water that saps its intensity. AOML's own experimentally-labeled "TCHP" product is unmaintained (confirmed stalled since 2026-01); this card instead uses NESDIS's operationally-maintained `ohc` field, which shares the identical physical definition and units (kJ/cm²) — same metric, actively updated source. Rapid-intensification threshold (~50 kJ/cm²) is a widely cited operational rule of thumb (Shay, Goni & Black 2000), not a hard physical cutoff. Weekly-sampled since Jan 2024 from rolling 14-day satellite-altimetry + Argo composites, ~5-6 day publication lag. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic MDR boxes match the Argo card's own regional callouts exactly.

The vanishing ice

Arctic sea ice is tracking below the historical floor on an exceptional number of days in 2026. Each km² of missing ice flips reflectivity from ~85% to ~6% — turning the Arctic from a planetary heat mirror into a heat sink.

Arctic Albedo Deficit · Additional Solar Absorption STALE 2026-10-17 · 8d old
THE SIGNAL
Ice extent · today
NSIDC
6.72 Mkm²
JAXA AMSR2
7.14 Mkm²
Sensor divergence
-0.42 Mkm²
85% reflected ~94% absorbed
Effective albedo
Today
44%
Historical mean
49%
Deficit
-5.4 ppts
vs historical mean
85% · pure ice
49%
HIST
44%
TODAY
6% · pure ocean
REFLECTIVITY TRANSITION DEFICIT -5.4 PPTS VS HISTORICAL MEAN
Albedo rank · this date
11th lowest
since 1978 · 44 years
Season absorption anomaly
+2213 W/m²·days
excess heat since Apr 1 · 200d · 14.1% above historical
Additional absorption · today
+0.46 W/m²
vs historical mean · per m² Arctic
Energy impact · total
6.4 TW
additional absorption · Arctic-wide
CERES measured albedo
31.6%
planetary · TOA · 2026-08
THE ENERGY
17,856 W/m²·days
+2213 W/m²·days · 14.1% above historical
Historical mean to date
15,643 W/m²·days
Days into season
200d since Apr 1
Rank vs history
11th lowest since 1978 · 44 yrs
Today's instant rate
6.4 TW vs 12-mo mean 73.2 TW
TW = terawatts, trillions of watts of power
THE SYSTEM
An area the size of the Arctic accounts for roughly 7.7% of the planet's entire energy imbalance — both figures as trailing 12-month means.
Arctic deficit · 73.2 TW Remaining EEI · 877.9 TW
Total planetary EEI · 951.1 TW · CERES 12-month running mean
~4%
Arctic share of
Earth's surface
→
7.7%
Arctic share of
planetary EEI
Ice loss Albedo deficit · ↑ solar absorption
→
Insulation removed Ocean heat + moisture enter atmosphere
→
Arctic warms faster 3–4× global mean rate
→
Jet stream disrupted Blocking highs · drought further south
Ice removal exposes the relatively warm Arctic ocean to cold atmosphere — amplifying warming beyond albedo alone and disrupting mid-latitude weather patterns.
ⓘ methodology & sources SOURCE · seaice_heat_absorbed
Physics: ice reflects ~85% of incident sunlight back to space; open ocean absorbs ~94%. Each million km² of ice lost to the historical per-DOY mean absorbs an additional Δα × S_eff watts, where Δα = 0.79 and S_eff is the all-sky daily mean insolation at 75°N (clear-sky astronomical formula × 0.50 Arctic cloud-transmission factor). Value is 0 during polar night — no additional absorption when there is no sun. Conservative: only counts deficits relative to the 1979–2025 per-DOY mean; a day where 2026 extent exceeds the mean is treated as 0. Note: the '2026 Year to Date · Days Below Historical Floor' card uses a stricter reference — the per-DOY historical minimum — so both cards can be nonzero simultaneously (deficit vs mean, but not yet below the all-time floor for that day). Energy impact W/m² derived from TW ÷ Arctic Ocean area (14.056 million km²). CERES measured albedo (stat strip below) is the global mean planetary albedo including tropics, land, and clouds — not directly comparable to the Arctic regional effective albedo derived from sea ice extent above. Both are shown because they tell different parts of the same story: the Arctic is losing its mirror, and Earth’s total reflectivity is declining as a consequence.
Arctic Sea Ice PIOMAS SUSPENDED NEXTSIM CURRENT Oct 23, 2026
41%
less ice than 02/1979
Rank · this month
2nd lowest
since 1979 · 48 years
Vs historical average
-25.1%
September trend
-3.0 ×10³ km³/decade
neXtSIM · current
7.0 × 10³ km³
Hover the chart to compare PIOMAS and neXtSIM
0 8 16 24 32 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2023 2012 2020 Model transition · not continuous PIOMAS · Feb 28 neXtSIM
PIOMAS 2026 neXtSIM 2026 2012 2020 2023
Historical range 1979–2025 Historical mean
neXtSIM and PIOMAS are independent models with different domains and physics — they don't track in lockstep at any given moment. Treat each as a trend indicator in its own right rather than a spliceable continuous series.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Volume integrates thickness × area — a more complete measure of ice loss than extent alone. Extent shows how far the ice reaches; volume shows how much is actually there. VOLUME view: PIOMAS (Schweiger et al. 2011) has been suspended since March 2026 (NCEP/NCAR R1 forcing terminated) — Copernicus Marine's neXtSIM (NERSC, ECMWF-forced) continues the live story, but the two models do not track in lockstep (validated offset swings -26% to +18% by season) so they are shown as separate segments, not a spliced series. EXTENT view: NSIDC v4 daily extent 1978–2025, reference years 2012 (all-time record minimum) and 2020 (second-lowest). VALIDATION view: NSIDC (NASA Team algorithm, DMSP SSMI/S) vs JAXA (Bootstrap algorithm, AMSR2) — independent instrument cross-check, more important than usual with NSIDC on Basic Level of Service due to federal funding cuts.
SOURCE · PIOMAS v2.1 + Copernicus Marine neXtSIM + NSIDC v4 + JAXA/NIPR ADS
2026 Year to Date · Days Below Historical Floor STALE
Latest observation: 2026-10-17
8d old · fetched 2026-10-25
40days
Days in 2026 where Arctic extent was below every prior year on that calendar date
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
days below floor within envelope not yet observed
ⓘ methodology & sources
Cumulative count of calendar days in 2026 where the NSIDC daily extent reading fell below the per-day historical minimum across the full 1978–2025 record. Unlike a streak, this total does not reset when extent recovers — a day back inside the envelope stops contributing, but previously counted days remain. Source: NSIDC Sea Ice Index v4.
SOURCE · seaice_days_below_range
▲ Data Infrastructure NSIDC Sea Ice Index — Basic Level of Service. Primary source moved to Basic Level of Service due to funding limitations. Reduced QC, slower issue response, no algorithm updates going forward. Data continues but support degrades. JAXA cross-check elevated in importance. NSIDC service-level notice ↗

What We Eat

World corn stocks at 78 days of supply — below the 90-day buffer floor where one bad harvest becomes a price shock.

Data as of October 2026
Breadbasket Stress
CURRENT Fetched 2026-10-13
Heat · Moisture · Vegetation · 9 major regions
← scroll →
Region Heat Moisture Vegetation Trend Risk
Normal Watch Stress Extreme
Normal Watch Stress Extreme
Normal Watch Stress Extreme
Improving Stable Worsening
US Midwest Corn / Soy +2.3 °C Stress 96% Normal +0.079 Normal Worsening Stress
Ukraine Wheat / Sunflower +1.1 °C Watch 89% Normal +0.141 Normal Stable Watch
India (IGP) Wheat / Rice -0.0 °C Normal 113% Normal +0.078 Normal Improving Normal
Brazil (Cerrado) Soy / Corn +0.9 °C Normal 78% Watch +0.052 Normal Stable Watch
Morocco / N. Africa Wheat / Barley +1.2 °C Watch 100% Normal -0.018 Normal Stable Watch
Australia Wheat +1.5 °C Watch 91% Normal -0.005 Normal Stable Watch
Argentina (Pampas) Soy / Corn / Wheat -0.3 °C Normal 111% Normal -0.059 Stress Worsening Stress
Russia (Black Earth) Wheat / Sunflower +1.9 °C Watch 109% Normal +0.067 Normal Stable Watch
EU Wheat Belt (Fr/De/Pl) Wheat / Barley +2.0 °C Watch 93% Normal +0.134 Normal Stable Watch
SOURCE · NCEI CDR NDVI · NOAA PSL CPC · ERA5/CDS
Global Drought · Regional Breakdown
Percent of world land at or below moderate drought severity — factoring in both rainfall and heat, broken down by continent.
CURRENT
Latest monthly value (~1-month lag)
through 2026-09-01
37.7% of land
6 POPULATED CONTINENTS COMBINED · ANTARCTICA EXCLUDED
1991–2020 era mean 17.2% of land
Threshold SPEI3 ≤ −1.0 · moderately dry or worse (McKee 1993/2011 classification)
Global % of land in drought · 1991–present ┊ El Niño peak (ONI), reference only
0% 20% 40% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 El Nino peak (ONI) · '97–98'97–98 El Nino peak (ONI) · '09–10'09–10 El Nino peak (ONI) · '15–16'15–16 El Nino peak (ONI) · '23–24'23–24
Regional breakdown 2026-09-01
0% 20% 40% 29% N. AMERICA 43% S. AMERICA 41% EUROPE 48% AFRICA 37% ASIA 22% OCEANIA
Hover the trend line to see any month's regional breakdown
ⓘ methodology & sources
Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), 3-month accumulation window, from Copernicus CDS's ERA5-Drought product (ECMWF; peer-reviewed methodology: Keune et al. 2025, Scientific Data). Unlike a raw precipitation deficit, SPEI factors in temperature via potential evapotranspiration — so it captures drought intensified by heat, not just by low rainfall. The global figure and the 6-continent breakdown both exclude Antarctica: a probe found it makes up 29.4% of all land grid cells in this product yet behaves nothing like the rest of the world (mean SPEI3 +0.21 vs −0.28 elsewhere) — blending a permanent ice sheet into a "land in drought" figure diluted the real number by ~2 points and has no food/water/ecosystem meaning. Continent boundaries are approximate lat/lon boxes (same convention as this site's other illustrative regions), not authoritative political borders — North Africa's Mediterranean coast is grouped with Europe, Russia east of ~45°E with Asia, Greenland with North America. "Moderately dry or worse" = SPEI3 ≤ −1.0, the standard WMO-referenced classification (McKee et al. 1993/2011). 0.25° global grid, monthly, 1991–2020 reference period. This is a global measure — it is not a substitute for the Southwest U.S. Palmer Drought Severity Index tracked on the American West panel, which remains its own regional card.
World Grain Stocks · Days of Supply
CURRENT
Data through 2026-10
78.0 d
2026 · days of supply
-8.1 vs prior year
below 90d buffer floor
122.3 d
2026 · days of supply
-3.4 vs prior year
135.1 d
2026 · days of supply
-5.4 vs prior year
ⓘ methodology & sources
World ending stocks expressed as days of domestic consumption remaining — the standard food-security buffer metric. Corn has fallen from ~95 days in 2022 to ~77 days in 2026, already below the 90-day floor where one bad harvest triggers a price shock. Wheat and rice remain comfortable; the spread between them is the story. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) database — world totals from all-country sum of ending stocks ÷ domestic consumption. Updated monthly alongside the WASDE.
FAO Food Price Index · Global Composite · 1990–present · FAO monthly
FAO CURRENT
2026-09-01 · 54d old
2008 FOOD CRISIS 2008-06: 132.7 (peak of this period) 2010–13 SUSTAINED HIGH PRICES 2011-02: 137.7 (peak of this period) 2021–23 COVID + UKRAINE SHOCK 2022-03: 160.2 (peak of this period) 2024–PRESENT RENEWED CLIMB 2026-09: 136.0 (peak of this period) 60 80 100 120 140 160 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1990–last 12 months Trailing 12 months Elevated-price period (≥120 pts, 2+ months)
How to read this: The full FAO Food Price Index since 1990, one continuous line. Shaded, labeled periods are real elevated-price stretches (≥120 index points, 2+ consecutive months) — hover any point for the exact month and value.
FAO Price Index Global Drought %
0 85 170 0% 20% 40% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Global drought % vs FAO Food Price Index, 1991–present. Real numbers, not an implied cause: 2007–08 and 2010–11 price spikes came with elevated drought, but 2012's severe US Midwest drought did not produce a new high — food prices track many drivers (energy, trade policy, war) beyond drought alone.
Food price shocks propagate to nutrition outcomes within 3–6 months. The 2022 spike contributed to an estimated 122 million additional people pushed into acute food insecurity.
US Wheat Production · WASDE CURRENT
Latest observation: 2026-10-01
24d old · fetched 2026-10-25
1,534million bushels
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 1970: 1351.6 million bushels 1971: 1618.6 million bushels 1972: 1546.2 million bushels 1973: 1710.8 million bushels 1974: 1781.9 million bushels 1975: 2126.9 million bushels 1976: 2148.8 million bushels 2011: 1993.1 million bushels 2012: 2252.3 million bushels 2013: 2135.0 million bushels 2014: 2026.3 million bushels 2015: 2061.9 million bushels 2016: 2308.7 million bushels 2017: 1740.9 million bushels 2018: 1885.4 million bushels 2019: 1932.0 million bushels 2020: 1819.7 million bushels 2021: 1646.3 million bushels 2022: 1649.7 million bushels 2023: 1803.9 million bushels 2024: 1978.7 million bushels 2025: 1989.2 million bushels 2026: 1533.7 million bushels 2026: 1534.0 million bushels (projection) 1352 1970 2011 2309 2026 1534 2026 //
intervening years omitted · million bushels
ⓘ methodology & sources
Headline value is the USDA WASDE 2026/2027 projection — a forward estimate, since the 2026 crop is not yet harvested. The chart below compares two eras with the intervening decades omitted (axis break): the early 1970s, the last time US production sat this low, against recent years ending in the 2026 projection (dashed red bar). If this projection holds, it would be the smallest US wheat crop in over 50 years. Bars are NASS realized production; the dashed bar is the WASDE forecast. Headline source: WASDE via ESMIS, migrated May 2026 off the Akamai-blocked www.usda.gov; history: USDA NASS Quick Stats.
SOURCE · usda_wasde_csv

The seas we’ve already locked in

Satellite altimetry shows the rate of sea level rise has increased by 40% within the observational record — from 2.77 mm/yr in 1993–2005 to 3.87 mm/yr today. Direct measurement by two independent constellations, not a model output.

Data as of June 2026
Global mean sea level
CURRENT
Data through 2026-06
Current rate
3.87 mm/yr
vs 2.77 mm/yr
1993–2005 baseline
Cumulative rise since 1993
115.6 mm
Rate acceleration
1.4× faster
Measurement
Satellite altimetry
TOPEX · Jason-1/2/3 · Sentinel-6
ⓘ methodology & sources
Data: CU Sea Level Research Group (sealevel.colorado.edu), seasonal signals removed. Satellites: TOPEX/Poseidon (1992–2005), Jason-1 (2001–2013), Jason-2 (2008–2019), Jason-3 (2016–present), Sentinel-6 (2020–present). Rate periods: 1993–2005 vs 2005–present. Two independent satellite constellations with overlapping missions confirm the trend. Citation: Nerem et al. 2018 (Sci. Adv.) for rate-acceleration methodology; CU 2026 release for current values.
Thermal expansion · sea level
CURRENT
Data through 2026-06
Full column rate
1.20 mm/yr
0–2000 m · 2005–present
Deep layer addition
+0.41 mm/yr
700–2000 m · previously invisible
Share of total SLR
31%
of observed rise rate
Thermosteric committed floor
+27 mm
locked in from heat to date
0 m 300 m 700 m 2000 m
Surface mixed layer +0.31°C
Thermocline zone +0.18°C
Deep ocean +0.06°C
Heat below 700 m cannot escape on any human timescale.
+0.41 mm/yr from the deep ocean
Argo revealed 34% more expansion than upper-ocean instruments could see
0–700 m
0.79 mm/yr
upper ocean
700–2000 m
+0.41 mm/yr
Argo layer
Total 1.20 mm/yr
Thermosteric committed floor · physics floor
+27 mm
From heat already absorbed · independent of future emissions · irreversible on civilizational timescales
EEI · 12-mo mean +1.86 W/m²
→
Ocean heat 0–2000 m 248 ZJ
→
Thermosteric rise +27.3 mm
→
Share of SLR 31%
ⓘ methodology & sources
Thermosteric sea level contribution derived from 0-2000m ocean heat content (NCEI/Argo, same sidecar as Oceans panel). Conversion: ~0.11 mm per ZJ of OHC change (IPCC AR6 approximation). Covers Argo float network depth range 0-2000m; deep-ocean expansion below 2000m is not captured and adds to the true thermosteric total. IPCC AR6 estimates thermosteric at 40-44% of total sea level rise; the ~30% shown here reflects the 0-2000m layer only.
Antarctic ice sheet
NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO · JPL Mascon CURRENT
Data through 2026-07
+0.012 mm/yr
2025 (latest full year)
+7.399 mm
sea level equivalent
2002–2010 mean
+0.274 mm/yr
2011–present mean
+0.317 mm/yr
Peak rate
+0.904 mm/yr (2015)
ⓘ methodology & sources
NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO JPL Mascon RL06.3Mv04 (Tellus Level-4 regional mass anomaly time series); podaac.jpl.nasa.gov; C3206284786-POCLOUD. Coverage: 2002-present, monthly, ~3-month processing lag. Mass anomaly in Gt (relative to 2002–2021 mean) converted to mm sea level equivalent (1 mm SLE = 361.8 Gt); cumulative anchored to 2002. Updated monthly via collect_ice_sheets.py.
Greenland ice sheet
NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO · JPL Mascon CURRENT
Data through 2026-07
+0.318 mm/yr
2025 (latest full year)
+15.967 mm
sea level equivalent
2002–2010 mean
+0.659 mm/yr
2011–present mean
+0.632 mm/yr
Peak rate
+1.286 mm/yr (2011)
ⓘ methodology & sources
NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO JPL Mascon RL06.3Mv04 (Tellus Level-4 regional mass anomaly time series); podaac.jpl.nasa.gov; C3206299308-POCLOUD. Coverage: 2002-present, monthly, ~3-month processing lag. Mass anomaly in Gt (relative to 2002–2021 mean) converted to mm sea level equivalent (1 mm SLE = 361.8 Gt); cumulative anchored to 2002. Updated monthly via collect_ice_sheets.py.
BY 2100 LOCKED IN
CURRENT
0.2–0.3 m
by 2100, any scenario
0.3–0.6 m
SSP1-2.6 · 2100
0.6–1.0 m
SSP5-8.5 · 2100

Thermal expansion from heat already absorbed is irreversible on human timescales.

The floor is locked in regardless of future emissions decisions.

Greenland and Antarctic destabilization could raise this floor significantly.

ⓘ methodology & sources
IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 9 and SPM Table SPM.2. Committed thermal expansion alone: ~0.1-0.2 m regardless of future emissions (Church et al. 2013; IPCC AR6). Scenario ranges shown as likely ranges (66th percentile) for 2100. Current sea level ~0.11 m above 1993 satellite altimetry baseline (CU Sea Level Research Group 2026).
Glacier mass balance
CURRENT
Data through 2025-12
Loss rate · 2025
–1091 mm w.e./yr
IPCC AR6: ~1.0 mm/yr sea level (1993-2018)
Rate acceleration
+70%
faster than 1992–2010 avg
1992–2010 avg
–519 mm w.e./yr
2011–present avg
–880 mm w.e./yr
ⓘ methodology & sources
WGMS reference glacier synthesis (~90 long-record glaciers worldwide). Annual specific mass balance in mm w.e. (water equivalent). Not directly mm sea level — IPCC AR6 (Table 2.5) estimates global glacier sea level contribution at 0.92 ± 0.16 mm/yr for 1993-2018, rising to ~1.1 mm/yr in 2010-2019. Data updated annually each spring with prior season measurements. WGMS (2024): Fluctuations of Glaciers Database. DOI:10.5904/wgms-fog-2024-11.

The American West

Snow that doesn't fall, water that isn't stored, and the fire that follows.
One drying system, read three ways.

Snow · Fire · Drought — the American West drying system
Western Drought · Severity & Water Year Deficit
CURRENT
PDSI thru 2026-09
Precip thru 2026-09
PDSI: Southwest U.S. (AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT) · Water Year: West of the Mississippi (17 states)
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX
-7.01
Extreme Drought
9th most negative of 1581 months since 1895
≤−4 Extreme
≤−3 Severe
≤−2 Moderate
 0 Normal
DustBowl 1950sDrought 2000sDrought Current -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 1895 1939 1982 2026
PDSI = Palmer Drought Severity Index · 0 = normal · negative = drought · Southwest U.S. region
WATER YEAR DEFICIT · WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
—
cumulative precip departure · WY2027
Oct 2026 – present
33.04%
USDM · D2 (severe) or worse
week of 2026-10-20
DEFICIT SURPLUS -4" -2" 0" 2" O N D J F M A M J J A S 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
WY2022 WY2023 WY2024 WY2025 WY2026 USDM D2+ % (right axis)
Water year Oct 1–Sep 30 · area-weighted precipitation departure from 1991–2020 normals, 17 states west of the Mississippi (excludes river-straddling MN/IA/MO/AR/LA) · dashed line = USDM % of that footprint in D2 (severe) or worse drought, current water year
Snowpack · Upper Colorado Basin SWE CURRENT Data through 2026-10-23
#1 of 46 years
Driest on record · 1981–present
PEAK SWE · 2026
9.24"
March 8
MEDIAN PEAK
17.77"
1981–2025
% OF MEDIAN
52%
of historical median
PRIOR RECORD
11.03"
2002
DEFICIT VS RECORD
-1.79"
below prior record
MELT-OUT · 2026
June 5
17d earlier than median
0" 10" 20" 30" Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Historical range 1981–2025 Historical mean 2002 (prior record) 2012 2018 2023 (exceptional year) 2026 ★
2026 (purple) against every year 1981–2025. Band is the full historical min–max per calendar day; dashed line is the historical mean. 2023 (red) was an exceptional snow year — its contrast with 2026 illustrates the basin's full drought range. During June–October, SWE drops to near-zero as melt-out completes — trace readings are expected seasonal behavior.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Daily basin mean snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Colorado watershed (HUC-14), computed from USDA NRCS SNOTEL stations. Filtered by HUC prefix 14, not state: 'CO:SNTL' includes stations in the Arkansas drainage that would contaminate the basin mean. 2026 peaked at 9.24" on March 7 — driest on record (1 of 46 years), 52% of the 17.77" historical median and 1.79" below the prior record set in 2002 (11.03"). Melt-out was the earliest on record. Percentile is Claude-computed from raw per-station data.
SOURCE · awdb_snowpack_upper_colorado
Wildfire · Acres Burned CURRENT
9,059,044
acres YTD
≈142% of the 10-year average as of October 23rd 2026
2026 leads all years in the comparison window
0.0M 0.5M 1.0M 1.5M 2.0M 2.5M 3.0M 3.5M 4.0M 4.5M 5.0M 5.5M 6.0M 6.5M 7.0M 7.5M 8.0M 8.5M 9.0M 9.5M 2016: 4,989,330 acres 2017: 8,820,787 acres 2018: 8,160,102 acres 2019: 4,477,114 acres 2020: 8,608,646 acres 2021: 6,527,015 acres 2022: 7,153,698 acres 2023: 2,545,228 acres 2024: 7,944,344 acres 2025: 4,861,067 acres 2026: 9,059,044 acres (current, hero) 10-yr avg · 6.37M 2016 8.82M 2018 8.61M 2020 2022 2024 9.06M 2026
2016–2026 · acres burned, year-to-date IMSR archive same-week comparison; as of 2026-10-23
1,800,690
FIRMS detections · contiguous US · YTD 2026-10-23
¹ SNPP only    ² SNPP + NOAA-20    ³ + NOAA-21 (2026-07-16+)
156 Leavenworth-Evans St, WA 0 150 500
Good 374 · Moderate 121 · USG 8 · Unhealthy 2
505 western US stations · PM2.5 · (cached 2026-08-17)
8
large fires active
2
new today
1,274
personnel assigned
PL 1
preparedness level
normal conditions
(as of 2026-10-14)
66,373
wildfires year-to-date
WA
most unhealthy+ stations · 1
unhealthy+ stations · 30d
82
ⓘ methodology & sources
National year-to-date acres burned, from the NIFC statistics page (updated ~daily; upstream of record is the weekly IMSR). The hero is NIFC's own reconciled national total, not a sum reconstructed from incident records. The comparison bars show year-to-date acres for 2016–2026; the dashed rule is the 2016–2025 ten-year average (1,172,748 acres), pinned as a constant until the rolling window advances in Jan 2027. Heat is keyed to value: the current year is full alarm at roughly twice the decade average. The baseline itself is climbing, which the bars show rather than hide. The FIRMS calendar (right column) is a separate variable — daily VIIRS satellite fire detections across the contiguous US, not acres — shown alongside for a same-region, different-instrument view.
SOURCE · nifc_fire_ytd
Water · the Colorado reservoir system — % of capacity computed from storage volume, not elevation
Lake Powell
CURRENT
2026-10-23 · 2d old
Capacity
23.7% full
Available Water
5.54 maf
≈ 1.8T gallons
Surface Elevation
3525.0 ft
Min power pool
+35.0 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-10-23 · 2d old · fetched 2026-10-25 · NGVD 1929
23.7% = 5.54 maf storage ÷ 23.42 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Min power pool (3490 ft) +35.0 ft
Dead pool (3370 ft) +155.0 ft
Glen Canyon Dam. The downstream giant the entire upper system is being drained to prop up. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 919
Lake Mead
CURRENT
2026-10-24 · 1d old
Capacity
26.1% full
Available Water
6.82 maf
≈ 2.2T gallons
Surface Elevation
1037.71 ft
Min power pool
+87.71 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-10-24 · 1d old · fetched 2026-10-25 · NGVD 1929
26.1% = 6.82 maf storage ÷ 26.12 maf available capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present. (Basis: documented available capacity, not back-solved live capacity — see source notes.)
Min power pool (950 ft) +87.71 ft
Dead pool (895 ft) +142.71 ft
Hoover Dam. Largest reservoir in the US by capacity; reduced Powell releases accelerate its decline. Capacity on documented available-capacity basis (26.12 maf).
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 921
Flaming Gorge
CURRENT
2026-10-23 · 2d old
Capacity
66.2% full
Available Water
2.44 maf
≈ 0.8T gallons
Surface Elevation
6005.3 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-10-23 · 2d old · fetched 2026-10-25 · NGVD 1929
66.2% = 2.44 maf storage ÷ 3.68 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the Green River. 660kaf-1maf being released through Apr 2027 to prop up Powell, drawing it toward ~59%.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 917
Navajo
CURRENT
2026-10-24 · 1d old
Capacity
63.9% full
Available Water
1.06 maf
≈ 0.3T gallons
Surface Elevation
6039.61 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-10-24 · 1d old · fetched 2026-10-25 · NGVD 1929
63.9% = 1.06 maf storage ÷ 1.65 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the San Juan. No additional releases planned due to low levels and poor inflow forecasts.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 920
Blue Mesa
CURRENT
2026-10-23 · 2d old
Capacity
19.0% full
Available Water
0.14 maf
≈ 0.0T gallons
Surface Elevation
7412.71 ft
Min power pool
+52.71 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-10-23 · 2d old · fetched 2026-10-25 · NGVD 1929
19.0% = 0.14 maf storage ÷ 0.75 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Min power pool (7360 ft) +52.71 ft
Dead pool (7220 ft) +192.71 ft
Gunnison River, part of the Aspinall Unit — one of the four CRSP Initial Units built alongside Powell, Flaming Gorge, and Navajo. Its releases have been used to prop up Powell during the current drought.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 913
Lake Havasu
CURRENT
2026-10-24 · 1d old
Capacity
81.9% full
Available Water
0.53 maf
≈ 0.2T gallons
Surface Elevation
447.89 ft
Min power pool
+7.89 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-10-24 · 1d old · fetched 2026-10-25 · NGVD 1929
81.9% = 0.53 maf storage ÷ 0.65 maf total capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present. (Basis: documented available capacity, not back-solved live capacity — see source notes.)
Min power pool (440 ft) +7.89 ft
Dead pool (400 ft) +47.89 ft
Parker Dam, downstream of Hoover and Davis — the diversion point for the Central Arizona Project and Metropolitan Water District canals. Capacity on documented total-capacity basis (646.2 kaf; no separately published live/active split).
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 923

Autonomous amplifiers

Earth system mechanisms that, once activated by human-caused warming, amplify themselves independent of any further human action.

AMOC slowdown ONGOING
CURRENT
OISST v2.1 · 2026-10

AMOC slowdown

The subpolar North Atlantic has cooled anomalously against a warming background — a cold blob fingerprint consistent with a weakened AMOC suppressing poleward heat transport.

RAPID array measurements show a −0.8 Sv/decade transport decline since 2004. Greenland meltwater is accelerating freshwater discharge into the formation zone, reducing the density gradient that drives overturning.

⟷ Greenland coupling — Greenland’s elevation feedback is accelerating freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic formation zone, reducing the density gradient that drives overturning. See Greenland Ice Sheet panel.

Transport trend
-0.8 Sv/decade
Cold blob
+0.56°C
SST anomaly vs 1991–2020
Potential CO₂ release
47–83
ppm if collapse
Human control
NONE
ⓘ methodology & sources
Cold blob: NOAA OISST v2.1 via ERDDAP, monthly mean 45–65°N 5–65°W vs 1991–2020 climatology. Transport trend: RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS program, rapid.ac.uk; McCarthy et al. 2015 Geophys. Res. Lett. Consequence if collapse: Zhu et al. 2023 Nat. Clim. Change (47–83 ppm CO₂ from Southern Ocean outgassing, independent of human emissions).
Greenland Ice Sheet CROSSED
CURRENT
GRACE/GRACE-FO · through 2025 · ERA5 T2 · 2026-10-14

Greenland Ice Sheet

7 m
sea level equivalent — full Greenland commitment

The Greenland Ice Sheet sits in a trap of its own lowering. As surface ice melts, the sheet surface drops into warmer air — the atmosphere cools with altitude at −6.5°C per 1,000 m, so every meter lost brings the remaining ice into a warmer layer. More melt, lower surface, warmer air, more melt.

Above approximately 1.5°C of global warming, this loop cannot be closed. That threshold is behind us. The sheet’s full contribution — 7 metres of sea level equivalent — is now a question of centuries, not if.

⟷ AMOC forcing — Greenland meltwater discharge is a primary autonomous freshwater input disrupting North Atlantic circulation. See AMOC panel.

Surface temp · 14d mean
+0.1°C
above 1991–2020 average
Domain above 0°C · 14d
43%
of ice sheet domain
This month rank
#13/31
warmest on record
2003–2010 avg
0.66
mm/yr sea level
2015–2025 avg
0.63
mm/yr sea level
1.5°C threshold
CROSSED
Human control
NONE
ⓘ methodology & sources
Surface temperature: ERA5 derived daily statistics (2m temperature), daily mean area-weighted over 60–84°N 73–10°W, 14-day rolling mean anomaly vs 1991–2020 climatology, ~5d lag via ERA5T preliminary. Mass balance data: NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO JPL Mascon RL06.3Mv04; Tellus Level-4 regional Greenland time series; podaac.jpl.nasa.gov; 2003–present monthly. Commitment threshold: Robinson et al. 2012 Nature; Ridley et al. 2010 Climate Dynamics. Sea level equivalent: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch9. Coupling mechanism: freshwater flux suppresses North Atlantic deep water formation (Köhl et al. 2023; Caesar et al. 2021).
Permafrost thaw ACTIVE
CURRENT
ERA5 · 2025

Permafrost thaw

Permeability rises by orders of magnitude across the −5°C to +1°C transition zone.

Arctic warming at 4× the global average rate — closing the gap to the transition zone.

Feedback operates independently of subsequent emissions reductions once the transition begins.

Arctic mean temp
-8.7°C
ERA5 annual mean
Warming rate
+0.68°C
°C / decade since 1979
Methane rise
+9.3
ppb / yr · 5-yr mean
Carbon stock
~1,500
Gt C
Active layer depth
~57 cm
CALM 2023 mean
Human control
INDIRECT
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch. 5 (carbon stock ~1,460–1,600 Gt C); Turetsky et al. 2019 Nature Geosci. (abrupt thaw); Burt & Williams 1976 (permeability transition). Active layer: CALM circumpolar network (~170 sites); NOAA Arctic Report Card 2023. Arctic temperature: ERA5 via Climate Reanalyzer, 66.5–90°N annual mean. CH₄ growth rate: NOAA GML global marine surface network monthly mean (ch4_mm_gl.txt); 5-year mean rate; multiple sources contribute to CH₄ growth (permafrost, wetlands, fossil fuels) — not permafrost-exclusive.
Boreal forest dieback ACTIVE
CURRENT
2026-10-25

Boreal forest dieback

Boreal forests (Canada, Russia, Alaska) cover 30% of the world’s forested area and store 30–40% of all terrestrial carbon — the largest land carbon pool on Earth.

Warming at 2–4× the global average drives a self-reinforcing cycle: warmer winters let bark beetles survive and kill billions of trees; dead forests burn; fires expose permafrost; permafrost releases CO₂ and CH₄ that drives further warming.

The 2023 Canadian fire season burned 18.4 Mha — the largest on record by a factor of two. North American boreal released 1.89 Gt CO₂, equal to 3.3× Canada’s entire annual fossil-fuel output in a single fire season.

1,094,492
FIRMS detections · Canada + Alaska · YTD 2026-10-23
2026 pace vs. 2023 record · same calendar day 35% of 2023 pace
¹ SNPP only    ² SNPP + NOAA-20    ³ + NOAA-21 (2026-07-16+)
2023 fire season
1.89 Gt CO₂
5.3× the long-run average
2023 fires vs. Canada fossil fuels
3.3×
one fire season = Canada’s annual CO₂ output
Long-run average
0.36 Gt CO₂/yr
N. America boreal · 1997–2025
2026 season · live
1,094,492
satellite fire detections · Canada + Alaska · YTD
Human control
NONE
structural · decades timescale
② methodology & sources
Historical emissions: GFED5.1 CO₂ summary table (globalfiredata.org; van der Werf et al. 2023, Nat. Clim. Change). BONA (Boreal North America) region; units 1×10¹³ g CO₂ converted to Gt. Bars show all fire types combined. Current-year detections: NASA FIRMS, combining three co-orbiting VIIRS instruments — SNPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 (SP archive + NRT each; NOAA-21 has no SP archive product yet) — bbox 168°W–52°W 50°N–84°N, nominal + high confidence only (firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov; FIRMS_MAP_KEY required). Detection count sums all three satellites' passes, so it is not a deduplicated unique-fire count; figures collected before 2026-07-16 used SNPP alone and are not directly comparable at the raw-count level. Canada fossil-fuel reference: Environment and Climate Change Canada 2024 National Inventory Report (~0.57 Gt CO₂ fossil + industrial). Feedback pathway: fire carbon release → warming → drying + beetle kill → more fire; coupled to Permafrost thaw card #01.
Amazon carbon flip WEAKENING
CURRENT
Gatti et al. · 2022

Amazon carbon flip

Eastern Amazon now net carbon emitter.

Previously absorbing ~2 Gt CO₂/yr.

A structural reversal in the Amazon's role in the global carbon budget.

Gatti et al. 2021 · eastern Amazon only · schematic trend · see source for uncertainty ranges
Net emission
0.8
Gt CO₂ / yr
Previous sink
~2.0
Gt CO₂ / yr
Response time
YEARS–DECADES
Human control
LOW
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: Gatti et al. 2021 Nature 595 (Eastern Amazon flux 2010–2018); Global Carbon Project 2023. Sign convention: positive = net absorption (sink); negative = net emission. Data schematic — see source for annual uncertainty ranges.
Coral reef collapse ACTIVE
CURRENT
NOAA CRW · 2026-10-19

Coral reef collapse

42.7%
% of reefs globally under bleaching alert · rolling 365d

Coral reefs cover <1% of the ocean floor but support ~25% of all marine species and food security for 500 million people.

Bleaching occurs when thermal stress exceeds 4°C-weeks above the maximum monthly mean. Bleached reefs release stored carbon and shift from net sink to net emitter.

The 4th global bleaching event (2023–24) was the most extensive on record. Event intervals have compressed from decade-scale to near-annual.

Pacific
34.1%
% at AL1 · rolling 365d
Atlantic
95.5%
% at AL1 · rolling 365d
Indian Ocean
39.0%
% at AL1 · rolling 365d
Human control
INDIRECT
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA Coral Reef Watch CoralTemp v3.1 5km satellite product. Bleaching Alert Area (BAA): % of reef pixels globally at Alert Level 1 (DHW ≥4°C-weeks, bleaching expected with some mortality) within the rolling past 365 days. 5-day maximum composite. No auth; daily update. Active global bleaching event threshold: ≥20% globally and ≥12% in each tropical ocean basin concurrently for ≥22 weeks (NOAA/ICRI 2024 criteria). Carbon feedback: Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2017 Science 356; IPCC AR6 WGII Ch. 3.2.
Thwaites glacier ACTIVE
CURRENT
NSIDC-0498 · thru 2023

Thwaites glacier

3.3 m
Committed sea level rise:
If full Thwaites buttressing fails

Thwaites sits on a retrograde bed — rock that slopes deeper inland. As warm ocean water pushes the grounding line inward, it retreats onto deeper bed, exposing more ice face to melt, accelerating the retreat further. The geometry is the amplifier.

Human warming pulled the trigger. The bed sustains the process regardless of what happens to emissions next. The ITGC finds no scenario in which retreat reverses on human timescales.

Thwaites buttresses neighboring West Antarctic glaciers. If the buttressing fails, neighboring glaciers accelerate. The committed rise is not from Thwaites alone.

BedMachine v3 · central flowline · Morlighem et al. 2020
MEaSUREs NSIDC-0498 · Rignot et al. 2014 · Milillo et al. 2019
Thwaites alone
~65 cm
sea level rise at full collapse
GL retreat 1992–2011
14 km
Rignot et al. 2014 · western sector
Current retreat rate
~1 km/yr
accelerating · InSAR observations
Reversal timescale
NONE
geometry now drives the process
Human control
NONE
trigger pulled · ITGC consensus
ⓘ methodology & sources
Bed topography: BedMachine Antarctica v3 (Morlighem et al. 2020, Nat. Geosci. 13, 132–137; doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8); representative values along central Thwaites flowline. Grounding line retreat: MEaSUREs Antarctic Grounding Line from Differential Satellite Radar Interferometry v2 (NSIDC-0498); Rignot et al. 2014 GRL (14 km western sector 1992–2011); Milillo et al. 2019 Sci Adv (continued retreat 2011–2017, up to 4 km/yr in eastern sector). Current rate ~1 km/yr average; series extended to 2023 at observed rate. Committed SLR: Thwaites alone ~65 cm (Joughin et al. 2014, Science 344, 735–738); full WAIS with buttressing failure 3.3 m (Bamber et al. 2019, Nature 575, 58–62). Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI): Weertman 1974; Schoof 2007, Science 315, 838–841. ITGC: International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (itgc.org), ongoing since 2019.
SYNTHESIS

Pulling it all together

Persistent planetary energy imbalance propagates through interconnected Earth systems with different response times, thresholds, and recovery capacities. This page synthesises the observatory into a single systems-level view.

The energy imbalance is the upstream term, and it has nearly doubled relative to the CERES-era mean. Everything downstream of it inherits that surplus. An imbalance of this magnitude does not dissipate; it accumulates, overwhelmingly into the ocean, which is where the bulk of the retained energy is now stored. The other panels — sea level, ice, the terrestrial stress indicators — are the ledger entries that record where that heat has gone. Read in this order, the imbalance is not one reading among several. It is the forcing the rest of the page reports on.

All seven tracked domains are elevated in this build, and ENSO is one of them: El Niño is active at +3.30°C. That matters for how the synchronisation is read. This is not elevation unexplained by ENSO — El Niño is present and is part of the picture. The honest claim is narrower and harder to dismiss: the breadth of elevation exceeds what this ENSO state has historically produced on its own. A single-mode year moves a subset of these indicators; it does not move all seven at once. The domains are not causally independent — they share the energy imbalance as a common driver — but they are not slaved to the El Niño mode either. That distinction is the reason this page exists rather than a single ENSO panel.

What the imbalance has already loaded into the ocean and the ice is committed for this cycle; ocean heat and sea-level rate respond to forcing already absorbed, not to present conditions, and both carry very low near-term human control. Read the other panels accordingly. Where ENSO relaxes, the ENSO-sensitive rows will ease; the ocean-heat and sea-level rows will not. That divergence is the signal to watch.

ⓘ how this analysis is generated
This synthesis is generated by claude-opus-4-8 reading the observatory's current instrument readings across all panels. Inputs: CERES EBAF (EEI), NCEI/Argo (OHC), NSIDC (sea ice), USDA FAS PSD (grain stocks), NIFC (fire), NOAA CPC (ENSO), NASA GISTEMP (global temperature), CU Sea Level (GMSL), RAPID array (AMOC), NOAA GML (CO₂). Generated 2026-10-20. The analysis follows the observatory's editorial posture: unhedged, no net-zero conditionals, damage-limitation framing. No prescription.

The cascade

EEI as the single upstream driver. Energy propagates through each system with different response times and remaining human control. Click any node to view its source panel.

Response times — where each system sits on its curve

Not a prediction. A "where are we in the process" read — each system's position relative to its own response and recovery curve.

RESPONSIVE COMMITTED
Aerosol masking
Response Weeks Recovery Weeks
Reversible — but removing aerosols immediately reveals suppressed warming
Atmosphere
Response Years Recovery Centuries
Emissions cuts slow warming within years; temperature inertia persists centuries
Surface ocean
Response Years–decades Recovery Decades
Upper ocean responds within years; heat persists for decades
Deep ocean
Response Centuries Recovery Centuries
Heat already absorbed is committed; circulation timescales centuries
Ice sheets
Response Centuries Recovery Millennia
Ice sheet loss is slow but committed; recovery requires millennia
Permafrost
Response Decades Recovery Centuries
Thaw is accelerating; carbon release once started is self-sustaining
Forest carbon sinks
Response Years–decades Recovery Decades–centuries
Sink capacity weakening; Amazon now a net emitter in drought years
Ocean circulation
Response Decades–centuries Recovery Unknown
AMOC slowdown trajectory unclear; collapse threshold uncertain

Co-elevation — systems stressed simultaneously

The argument is not that any one system is at a record. It is that multiple systems are elevated at once. That synchronisation is what makes 2026 structurally different from prior climate variability — including prior El Niño years.

YEAR EEI OHC SEA ICE FOOD FIRE ENSO DROUGHT NOTE
2026 NOW ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ 7 domains tracked — 7 of 7 elevated
2023 ▲ ▲ ▲ ○ ○ ▲ ▲ Record OHC. Severe Antarctic sea ice deficit. El Nino developing. Food and US fire not at threshold.
2016 ○ ▲ ▲ ○ ○ ▲ ▲ Strongest El Nino in satellite record. Record winter sea ice low. Ocean heat elevated. Food and fire systems not stressed.
2012 ▲ ○ ▲ ▲ ▲ ○ ▲ Arctic record minimum. US drought. Record fire year. No El Nino forcing — structural stress.
1998 — — ○ ○ — ▲ ▲ El Nino dominant — strongest on record at the time. Energy and ocean systems not yet in satellite era.
▲ elevated / stressed relative to historical baseline ○ within historical envelope — pre-satellite era or data unavailable
ⓘ methodology — threshold definitions
EEI: Annual mean > CERES record mean (1.12 W/m², 2001–present). Pre-2001: —.
OHC: 5-year mean gain > 2005–present mean rate (10.5 ZJ/yr). Pre-2005: —.
Sea ice: Annual mean NSIDC extent >1 SD below 1981–2010 climatological mean (11.47 M km²). Current year: any days below per-DOY all-time minimum.
Food: Global corn stocks-to-use < 90-day buffer floor (USDA FAS PSD).
Fire: NIFC acres ≥ 125% of prior 10-year average. Historical years: full-year totals vs contemporary 10yr average.
ENSO: Niño 3.4 ≥ +0.5°C for 3+ consecutive months, 1991–2020 baseline (NOAA CPC).
Drought: Global % of land area at/below SPEI3 −1.0 (moderately dry or worse, Copernicus CDS ERA5-Drought) > the product's own 1991–2020 era mean. Current year: trailing 12-month mean of the % series. A global measure — not the Southwest U.S. Palmer Drought Severity Index tracked separately on the American West panel.

What remains controllable

The honest close. Systems where human influence remains HIGH or MODERATE get one visual treatment. Systems where it is LOW or VERY LOW get another. The line is drawn at the boundary between HIGH/MODERATE and LOW/VERY LOW human control — not editorial judgment, but a direct output of the systems science.

SYSTEM HUMAN INFLUENCE HUMAN CONTROL
LEVERS THAT REMAIN
CO₂ emissions DIRECT HIGH
Aerosol masking trap DIRECT (involuntary) MODERATE
Atmospheric moisture MODERATE MODERATE
RESPONSES ALREADY IN MOTION
Ocean heat accumulation INDIRECT LOW
Permafrost thaw INDIRECT LOW
Sea level rise INDIRECT LOW
Ice sheet response INDIRECT VERY LOW
Ocean circulation (AMOC) INDIRECT VERY LOW