The air we breathe
CO₂ at concentrations not seen in 3–5 million years.
The atmosphere is the ledger.
Earth Energy Imbalance · CERES EBAF-TOA
CURRENT
Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)
1.823W/m²
12-month running mean
≈ 14.8 Hiroshima bombs / sec
of excess energy absorbed by Earth
929.7 TW
absorbed · 12-month running mean
Satellite record peak
2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023
ⓘ Positive values indicate energy gain by Earth.
ⓘ methodology & sources
12-month running mean of global-mean top-of-atmosphere net flux (toa_net_all_mon) — the rate the planet is accumulating heat, ~90% of it into the oceans. The trend is the signal: the 12-mo mean has risen roughly +0.4 W/m² per decade since 2001, the trend line nearly tripling across the record — but the line is noisy and NOT monotonic (it swings year to year, and the single-month-window record high was mid-2023, above the current value). NOTE: EBAF's absolute level is constrained to in-situ ocean heat content (Loeb et al.); the satellite fixes the TREND well but not the absolute magnitude independently — which is why the climb, not the height, is the honest reading. The Hiroshima framing is an editorial transform of the W/m² value, computed live.
SOURCE · ceres_ebaf_eei
Daily Global Surface Temperature · ERA5
CURRENT
16.4°C
Global AVG
+1.44°C
2026 Anomaly
Warmest May 15 in the ERA5 record (1940–present)2026 is setting single-day records weeks before the summer peak
+0.9°C above 1979–2000 daily mean
+1.2°C above 1940–1960 daily mean (pre-industrial proxy)
8 of 155 days in 2026 set an all-time calendar-day record
ⓘ methodology & sources
Cos-latitude-weighted global mean 2m air temperature from ERA5 reanalysis. ~5-6 day publication lag is intrinsic to the product, not staleness. The absolute annual peak is a Northern-Hemisphere-summer (July) value — ~17.15 °C in 2024, the warmest day in the record. The headline above tracks a different, honest superlative: the warmest reading on record for its specific calendar date, which 2026 has been setting through spring — weeks before that summer peak.
SOURCE · era5_daily_global_t
Atmospheric CO₂ · Mauna Loa
CURRENT
432.41ppm
Pre-industrial baseline 280 ppm · highest in 3–5 million years
ⓘ methodology & sources
The breath of the planet: CO₂ falls each Northern-Hemisphere summer as plants take up carbon, then rises through winter. The full Keeling Curve — unbroken since 1958 — shows the relentless upward trend and the accelerating pace of rise.
SOURCE · noaa_co2_daily
Global Precipitable Water
CURRENT
25.247kg/m^2 (36mo avg, World)
Every +1°C, atmospheric moisture rises ~7%.More water vapor intensifies rainfall and drought extremes.
ⓘ methodology & sources
36-month running average of total-column precipitable water (water vapour), global mean. Atmospheric moisture rises ~7% per °C of warming (Clausius-Clapeyron), and the trend is upward — more water vapor means more intense precipitation, compounding flood and drought extremes. Per v2 exec summary Sec 1, which highlights the 30°N–60°N mid-latitude band (where over half the world's population lives); that exact band isn't available as a stable automated series, so this shows the global mean. Source: ERA5 total column water vapour (Copernicus C3S, 1940–present), area-weighted to a cos-latitude global mean via the CDS API.
SOURCE · climate_reanalyzer_pwat
Global Mean Temperature · 146-Year Record
CURRENT
1.419°C above pre-industrial
Three independent methods agree within 0.07°C
ⓘ methodology & sources
Hero value: NASA GISTEMP annual mean for the latest complete year, rebased from the 1951–1980 baseline to a pre-industrial reference (1880–1899 mean = 0). The +0.29°C offset is computed live from the GISTEMP CSV — not hardcoded — so it tracks any future reprocessing. NOAA GlobalTemp and Berkeley Earth place current warming within 0.06°C of GISTEMP. The dashed line marks the Paris Agreement 1.5°C threshold (defined on the same pre-industrial reference). All three methods use independent station compilations and infilling; their convergence confirms the signal is real, not an artifact of method choice.
SOURCE · gistemp_preindustrial
03
Aerosol masking trap
STRUCTURAL
Aerosol masking trap
Fossil fuel combustion masks 0.5–1.5°C of warming via SO₂ aerosols.
Rapid decarbonization removes masking within weeks; CO₂ persists centuries.
No emissions pathway avoids the asymmetry between aerosol lifetime and CO₂ persistence.
Masking range
0.5–1.5°C
Removal timescale
WEEKS–MONTHS
CO₂ persistence
CENTURIES
Human control
CONSTRAINED
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch. 7 (aerosol ERF −1.06 W/m², 90% range −1.84 to −0.46); Samset et al. 2018 (aerosol removal timescale). Observed warming: NASA GISTEMP v4 annual anomaly (1880–1899 baseline). Aerosol cooling from IPCC AR6 best estimate. Total = observed + |aerosol forcing|.
Atmospheric Methane · Global Mean
CURRENT
1940.46ppb 2.69× pre-industrial
80× the 20-year warming potential of CO₂
Fossil fuel operations, livestock, and wetlands — the near-term lever.
Pre-industrial
722 ppb
Current
1940.46
ppb
Atmospheric lifetime
~12 yrs
Human control
DIRECT
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial CH₄ ≈ 722 ppb (ice-core consensus). Current levels represent a 2.6–2.7× increase driven by fossil fuel operations, agriculture (livestock + rice), and wetland emissions. CH₄ has a ~12-year atmospheric lifetime but a 20-year warming potential 80× that of CO₂ — meaning near-term reductions have an outsized effect on near-term warming. The post-2020 acceleration (~15 ppb/yr vs ~7 ppb/yr historically) is not fully explained by any single source.
SOURCE · noaa_ch4_global
Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide · Global Mean
CURRENT
339.75ppb 1.26× pre-industrial
273× the warming potential of CO₂, and it lingers for over a century
The third greenhouse gas — mostly from fertilizer and the soils we farm.
Pre-industrial
270 ppb
Current
339.75
ppb
Atmospheric lifetime
~115 yrs
Human control
CONSTRAINED
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial N₂O ≈ 270 ppb (ice-core consensus). Synthetic nitrogen agriculture is the dominant source; the ~115-year atmospheric lifetime means every tonne emitted today is still warming in 2141. Unlike CH₄ reductions, N₂O mitigation offers no near-term shortcut — persistence is the story. The curve is nearly linear: no plateaus, no policy inflections, no visible ceiling.
SOURCE · noaa_n2o_global
The Developing El Niño
The equatorial Pacific is the planet's primary weather engine. ENSO shifts rainfall, drought, storm tracks, and global mean temperature across seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Four indicators read the current state: the canonical Niño 3.4 index, the CFSv2 ensemble forecast, the Southern Oscillation Index (atmospheric confirmation), and a real-time SST map.
Historical 5th–95th
Observed (NCEI)
Forecast 5th–95th (40 members)
Ensemble mean
ⓘ methodology & sources
Forecast = 40-member CFSv2 ensemble (5th–95th band + mean); seasonal 3-mo means, steps at the seam monthly per the source file. The historical band uses the same 1991–2020 basis and 3-mo smoothing, so the seam carries no kink. Companion to the chart at left: that one shows where 2026 sits across 75 years; this shows where it's going and whether that's off the historical scale.
SOURCE · cfsv2_nino34
Historical mean
1997
2015
2023
2026
Historical range 1981–2025 (45 yrs), 5th–95th pct
Niño 3.4 · Jun 8 (daily)
+1.50°C
1991–2020 baseline · El Niño
Same month, older baseline
+1.07°C
1971–2000 baseline
Absolute SST · Niño 3.4
29.2°C
physical sea surface temperature
Among all Juns (76 yr)
#1/77
100.0th percentile — near record
ⓘ methodology & sources
CPC weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (wksst9120.for, OISSTv2, 1991–2020 baseline). Weekly cadence gives ~1-week lag vs ~6-week lag for monthly ERSST. Data rail (phase label, percentile, baseline drift) computed from the monthly ERSST series — ENSO phase is a monthly-to-seasonal signal and the dual-baseline thesis requires the 1971–2000 period not available in the weekly file.
SOURCE · crw_sst_anomaly_tropics
Historical mean
1997
2016
2023
2026
Historical range 1951–2025 (75 yrs), 5th–95th pct
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA CPC standardized monthly SOI (Tahiti minus Darwin sea-level pressure anomaly, standardized). Negative SOI confirms the atmospheric half of El Niño: weakened trade winds, suppressed Walker Circulation, reinforcing warm SST anomaly. Pairs with Niño 3.4 — both must be persistently negative for confirmed ocean-atmosphere coupling.
The committed warming reservoir
Oceans absorb ~90% of excess planetary heat. This heat represents warming committed regardless of future emissions decisions.
Historical mean
1982
2016
2023
2024
2025
2026
Historical range 1981–2025 (45 yrs)
ⓘ methodology & sources
Series parsed from Climate Reanalyzer's undocumented daily-SST JSON (the page itself is Highcharts-rendered). First trajectory-type indicator; sea-ice and Niño 3.4 envelopes reuse the same renderer.
Ocean Surface Temperature · Argo Float Network
Warmer than usual
+0.61°C
above long-term average for each location
Above baseline
70%
of 3,669 floats
Network
3,669 floats · 10-day window
Surface · 0–30 dbar
Color: anomaly vs WOA23
ⓘ methodology & sources
Argovis API (argovis-api.colorado.edu); Argo Program (Argo, 2024). 3,800+ autonomous profiling floats operated by ~30 nations. Each float descends to 2,000 m and measures temperature and salinity as it rises, transmitting via satellite every ~10 days. Surface temperature shown at 0–30 dbar depth. Raw degrees Celsius — no anomaly baseline applied. Blue = polar cold, orange/red = tropical warm. Data window: rolling 10-day, de-duplicated to one reading per float.
Ocean Heat Content · 0–700 m
CURRENT
232.5ZJ ZJ
Upper-ocean heat anomaly above the 1955–2006 baseline
≈ 388 yrs of global energy use
+8.1 ZJ / yr · past decade · 1955–2006 baseline
ⓘ methodology & sources
NCEI/NOAA quarterly mean heat content anomaly for the global 0–700 m layer, relative to the 1955–2006 baseline. Updated quarterly with ~3-month publication lag. The upper ocean stores roughly half of all accumulated excess planetary heat. 1 ZJ = 10²¹ J.
SOURCE · ohc_700m
Deep Ocean Heat · 0–2000 m
CURRENT
333.1ZJ ZJ
Deep-ocean heat recirculates on century timescales
≈ 555 yrs of global energy use
+11.0 ZJ / yr · past decade · 1955–2006 baseline
ⓘ methodology & sources
NCEI/NOAA quarterly mean heat content anomaly for the global 0–2000 m layer. The 700–2000 m layer is a slow, near-irreversible store — this is the committed warming component that persists regardless of future emissions. Available from ~2005 onward when the Argo float array reached full coverage. 1 ZJ = 10²¹ J.
SOURCE · ohc_2000m
The vanishing ice
Arctic sea ice is tracking below the historical floor on an exceptional number of days in 2026. Each km² of missing ice flips reflectivity from ~85% to ~6% — turning the Arctic from a planetary heat mirror into a heat sink.
Arctic Albedo Deficit · Additional Solar Absorption
CURRENT
As ice disappears, surface reflectivity (albedo) collapses from ~85% to ~6% — turning the Arctic from a planetary heat mirror into a heat sink.
ICE REFLECTS
~85%
of incoming sunlight
OPEN OCEAN ABSORBS
~94%
of incoming sunlight
ADDITIONAL ABSORPTION
~6×
more energy absorbed per m²
ENERGY IMPACT
+13.62 W/m²
per m² of Arctic · today
EFFECTIVE ALBEDO
67%
hist mean 72% −5.3 ppts
ⓘ methodology & sources
Physics: ice reflects ~85% of incident sunlight back to space; open ocean absorbs ~94%. Each million km² of ice lost to the historical per-DOY mean absorbs an additional Δα × S_eff watts, where Δα = 0.79 and S_eff is the all-sky daily mean insolation at 75°N (clear-sky astronomical formula × 0.50 Arctic cloud-transmission factor). Value is 0 during polar night — no additional absorption when there is no sun. Conservative: only counts deficits relative to the 1979–2025 per-DOY mean; a day where 2026 extent exceeds the mean is treated as 0. Note: the '2026 Year to Date · Days Below Historical Floor' card uses a stricter reference — the per-DOY historical minimum — so both cards can be nonzero simultaneously (deficit vs mean, but not yet below the all-time floor for that day). Energy impact W/m² derived from TW ÷ Arctic Ocean area (14.056 million km²).
SOURCE · seaice_heat_absorbed
Historical mean
2012
2020
2026
Historical range 1978–2025 (48 yrs)
ⓘ methodology & sources
NSIDC v4 daily extent 1978–2025. Shaded band: full historical range. Bold: 2026 trace. Reference lines: 2012 (all-time record minimum) and 2020 (second-lowest). Early years 1979–1987 have alternating-day SMMR coverage; their sparser envelope contribution is expected.
Independent Validation · NSIDC vs JAXA Daily Extent
STALE
Gap 5.3% of NSIDC extent
30th percentile for this date (2003–2025, 23 yrs, mean 5.4%)
NSIDC 11.285 · JAXA 10.685
gap +0.6 M km²
2026-06-02
gap +0.6 M km²
2026-06-02
NSIDC
JAXA
Divergence (measurement uncertainty)
ⓘ methodology & sources
Two independent satellite algorithms measuring the same sea ice. NSIDC uses the NASA Team algorithm on DMSP SSMI/S; JAXA uses the Bootstrap algorithm on AMSR2. The shaded ribbon between them is the measurement uncertainty band — when it narrows, both sensors agree closely; when it widens, the algorithms diverge on marginal ice. NSIDC is currently on Basic Level of Service due to federal funding cuts, making the JAXA cross-check more important than usual.
2026 Year to Date · Days Below Historical Floor
CURRENT
34days
Days in 2026 where Arctic extent was below every prior year on that calendar date
days below floor
within envelope
not yet observed
ⓘ methodology & sources
Cumulative count of calendar days in 2026 where the NSIDC daily extent reading fell below the per-day historical minimum across the full 1978–2025 record. Unlike a streak, this total does not reset when extent recovers — a day back inside the envelope stops contributing, but previously counted days remain. Source: NSIDC Sea Ice Index v4.
SOURCE · seaice_days_below_range
▲ Data Infrastructure
NSIDC Sea Ice Index — Basic Level of Service. Primary source moved to Basic Level of Service due to funding limitations. Reduced QC, slower issue response, no algorithm updates going forward. Data continues but support degrades. JAXA cross-check elevated in importance.
NSIDC service-level notice ↗
The breadbasket
World corn stocks at 77 days of supply — below the 90-day buffer floor where one bad harvest becomes a price shock.
Data as of June 2026
World Grain Stocks · Days of Supply
Corn
77.5 d
2026 · days of supply
-6.3 vs prior year
below 90d buffer floor
Wheat
122.6 d
2026 · days of supply
-2.0 vs prior year
Rice
130.7 d
2026 · days of supply
-3.4 vs prior year
ⓘ methodology & sources
World ending stocks expressed as days of domestic consumption remaining — the standard food-security buffer metric. Corn has fallen from ~95 days in 2022 to ~77 days in 2026, already below the 90-day floor where one bad harvest triggers a price shock. Wheat and rice remain comfortable; the spread between them is the story. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) database — world totals from all-country sum of ending stocks ÷ domestic consumption. Updated monthly alongside the WASDE.
Historical mean
2022
2026
Historical range 1990–2025 (36 yrs), 5th–95th pct
ⓘ methodology & sources
FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) composite — weighted average of cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar price indices. Base period 2014-2016=100. The March 2022 peak (160.2) was driven by simultaneous disruption in grain, energy, and fertilizer markets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The index remains elevated against the pre-2022 historical range. Source: FAO World Food Situation, updated monthly.
US Wheat Production · WASDE
STALE
1,561million bushels
ⓘ methodology & sources
Headline value is the USDA WASDE 2026/2027 projection — a forward estimate, since the 2026 crop is not yet harvested. The chart below compares two eras with the intervening decades omitted (axis break): the early 1970s, the last time US production sat this low, against recent years ending in the 2026 projection (dashed red bar). At 1561 the projection would be the smallest US crop in over 50 years. Bars are NASS realized production; the dashed bar is the WASDE forecast. Headline source: WASDE via ESMIS, migrated May 2026 off the Akamai-blocked www.usda.gov; history: USDA NASS Quick Stats.
SOURCE · usda_wasde_csv
Breadbasket Stress
CURRENT
Heat · Moisture · Vegetation across 8 major food-producing regions
| Region | Heat | Moisture | Vegetation | Trend | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Normal
Watch
Stress
Extreme
|
Normal
Watch
Stress
Extreme
|
Normal
Watch
Stress
Extreme
|
Improving
Stable
Worsening
|
||
| US Midwest Corn / Soy | +1.5 °C Watch | 94% Normal | -0.009 Normal | Stable | Watch |
| Ukraine Wheat / Sunflower | -1.3 °C Normal | 98% Normal | +0.060 Normal | Stable | Normal |
| India (IGP) Wheat / Rice | +0.2 °C Normal | 131% Normal | +0.062 Normal | Stable | Normal |
| Brazil (Cerrado) Soy / Corn | +0.5 °C Normal | 82% Normal | +0.030 Normal | Stable | Normal |
| Morocco / N. Africa Wheat / Barley | +0.6 °C Normal | 104% Normal | +0.041 Normal | Stable | Normal |
| Australia Wheat | +0.7 °C Normal | 88% Normal | +0.007 Normal | Improving | Normal |
| Argentina (Pampas) Soy / Corn / Wheat | +0.3 °C Normal | 98% Normal | +0.066 Normal | Improving | Normal |
| Russia (Black Earth) Wheat / Sunflower | +0.1 °C Normal | 103% Normal | +0.013 Normal | Stable | Normal |
SOURCE · NCEI CDR NDVI · NOAA PSL CPC · ERA5/CDS
The seas we’ve already locked in
Satellite altimetry shows the rate of sea level rise has increased by 40% within the observational record — from 2.77 mm/yr in 1993–2005 to 3.88 mm/yr today. Direct measurement by two independent constellations, not a model output.
Data as of February 2026
Global mean sea level
Current rate
3.88 mm/yr
vs 2.77 mm/yr
1993–2005 baseline
1993–2005 baseline
Cumulative rise since 1993
112.0 mm
Rate acceleration
1.4× faster
Measurement
Satellite altimetry
TOPEX · Jason-1/2/3 · Sentinel-6
ⓘ methodology & sources
Data: CU Sea Level Research Group (sealevel.colorado.edu), seasonal signals removed. Satellites: TOPEX/Poseidon (1992–2005), Jason-1 (2001–2013), Jason-2 (2008–2019), Jason-3 (2016–present), Sentinel-6 (2020–present). Rate periods: 1993–2005 vs 2005–present. Two independent satellite constellations with overlapping missions confirm the trend. Citation: Nerem et al. 2018 (Sci. Adv.) for rate-acceleration methodology; CU 2026 release for current values.
Thermal expansion · sea level
Thermal expansion rate
1.19 mm/yr
~31% of total sea level rise rate
Cumulative since 2005
+26.8 mm
thermosteric sea level equivalent
Ocean water expands as it warms. No ice needs to melt — heat alone raises the sea.
The 0–2000m layer has added 26.8 mm to sea level since 2005. The deep ocean below 2000m adds further, uncaptured by the Argo network.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Thermosteric sea level contribution derived from 0-2000m ocean heat content (NCEI/Argo, same sidecar as Oceans panel). Conversion: ~0.11 mm per ZJ of OHC change (IPCC AR6 approximation). Covers Argo float network depth range 0-2000m; deep-ocean expansion below 2000m is not captured and adds to the true thermosteric total. IPCC AR6 estimates thermosteric at 40-44% of total sea level rise; the ~30% shown here reflects the 0-2000m layer only.
Antarctic ice sheet
SL Contribution
+0.017 mm/yr
2025 (latest full year)
Cumulative since 2002
+7.121 mm
sea level equivalent
2002–2010 mean
+0.274 mm/yr
2011–present mean
+0.314 mm/yr
Peak rate
+0.905 mm/yr (2015)
ⓘ methodology & sources
NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO JPL Mascon RL06.3Mv04 (Tellus Level-4 regional mass anomaly time series); podaac.jpl.nasa.gov; C3206284786-POCLOUD. Coverage: 2002-present, monthly, ~3-month processing lag. Mass anomaly in Gt (relative to 2002–2021 mean) converted to mm sea level equivalent (1 mm SLE = 361.8 Gt); cumulative anchored to 2002. Updated monthly via collect_ice_sheets.py.
Greenland ice sheet
SL Contribution
+0.319 mm/yr
2025 (latest full year)
Cumulative since 2002
+15.743 mm
sea level equivalent
2002–2010 mean
+0.659 mm/yr
2011–present mean
+0.634 mm/yr
Peak rate
+1.286 mm/yr (2011)
ⓘ methodology & sources
NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO JPL Mascon RL06.3Mv04 (Tellus Level-4 regional mass anomaly time series); podaac.jpl.nasa.gov; C3206299308-POCLOUD. Coverage: 2002-present, monthly, ~3-month processing lag. Mass anomaly in Gt (relative to 2002–2021 mean) converted to mm sea level equivalent (1 mm SLE = 361.8 Gt); cumulative anchored to 2002. Updated monthly via collect_ice_sheets.py.
BY 2100
LOCKED IN
Committed floor
0.2–0.3 m
by 2100, any scenario
Low emissions
0.3–0.6 m
SSP1-2.6 · 2100
High emissions
0.6–1.0 m
SSP5-8.5 · 2100
Thermal expansion from heat already absorbed is irreversible on human timescales.
The floor is locked in regardless of future emissions decisions.
Greenland and Antarctic destabilization could raise this floor significantly.
ⓘ methodology & sources
IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 9 and SPM Table SPM.2. Committed thermal expansion alone: ~0.1-0.2 m regardless of future emissions (Church et al. 2013; IPCC AR6). Scenario ranges shown as likely ranges (66th percentile) for 2100. Current sea level ~0.11 m above 1993 satellite altimetry baseline (CU Sea Level Research Group 2026).
Glacier mass balance
Loss rate · 2025
–1091 mm w.e./yr
IPCC AR6: ~1.0 mm/yr sea level (1993-2018)
Rate acceleration
+70%
faster than 1992–2010 avg
1992–2010 avg
–519 mm w.e./yr
2011–present avg
–880 mm w.e./yr
ⓘ methodology & sources
WGMS reference glacier synthesis (~90 long-record glaciers worldwide). Annual specific mass balance in mm w.e. (water equivalent). Not directly mm sea level — IPCC AR6 (Table 2.5) estimates global glacier sea level contribution at 0.92 ± 0.16 mm/yr for 1993-2018, rising to ~1.1 mm/yr in 2010-2019. Data updated annually each spring with prior season measurements. WGMS (2024): Fluctuations of Glaciers Database. DOI:10.5904/wgms-fog-2024-11.
The American West
Snow that doesn't fall, water that isn't stored, and the fire that follows. One drying system, read three ways.
Snow · Upper Colorado basin — Fire · year to date, national
Historical mean
2002
2018
2023
2026
Historical range 1981–2025 (45 yrs)
ⓘ methodology & sources
Daily basin mean snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Colorado watershed (HUC-14), computed from USDA NRCS SNOTEL stations. Filtered by HUC prefix 14, not state: 'CO:SNTL' includes stations in the Arkansas drainage that would contaminate the basin mean. 2026 peaked ~9" vs ~15.5" median (~58% of median), with an early peak (~mid-March vs median Apr 4–8) and early melt-out — tracking at or below the 10-year envelope floor all season. Percentile is Claude-computed from raw per-station data; verify once against NRCS published basin % after first collector run.
Wildfire · Acres Burned
CURRENT
2,512,301acres YTD
≈186% of the 10-year average as of June 10th 2026
2026 tops a cluster of already-bad years
2026 tops a cluster of already-bad years
ⓘ methodology & sources
National year-to-date acres burned, from the NIFC statistics page (updated ~daily; upstream of record is the weekly IMSR). The hero is NIFC's own reconciled national total, not a sum reconstructed from incident records. The comparison bars show year-to-date acres for 2016–2026; the dashed rule is the 2016–2025 ten-year average (1,172,748 acres), pinned as a constant until the rolling window advances in Jan 2027. Heat is keyed to value: the current year is full alarm at roughly twice the decade average. 2017, 2018, and 2024 also ran high at this date — the baseline itself is climbing, which the bars show rather than hide.
SOURCE · nifc_fire_ytd
Water · the Colorado reservoir system — % of capacity computed from storage volume, not elevation
Lake Powell
Capacity
24.4% full
Available Water
5.71 maf
≈ 1.9T gallons
Surface Elevation
3527.86 ft
Min power pool
+37.86 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-06-08 · 2d old · fetched 2026-06-10 · NGVD 1929
24.4% = 5.71 maf storage ÷
23.42 maf live capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present.
Min power pool (3490 ft)
+37.86 ft
Dead pool (3370 ft)
+157.86 ft
Glen Canyon Dam. The downstream giant the entire upper system is being drained to prop up. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 919
Lake Mead
Capacity
28.9% full
Available Water
7.54 maf
≈ 2.5T gallons
Surface Elevation
1048.06 ft
Min power pool
+98.06 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-06-09 · 1d old · fetched 2026-06-10 · NGVD 1929
28.9% = 7.54 maf storage ÷
26.12 maf available capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present. (Basis: documented
available capacity, not back-solved live capacity — see source notes.)
Min power pool (950 ft)
+98.06 ft
Dead pool (895 ft)
+153.06 ft
Hoover Dam. Largest reservoir in the US by capacity; reduced Powell releases accelerate its decline. Capacity on documented available-capacity basis (26.12 maf).
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 921
Flaming Gorge
Capacity
76.5% full
Available Water
2.82 maf
≈ 0.9T gallons
Surface Elevation
6017.25 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-06-08 · 2d old · fetched 2026-06-10 · NGVD 1929
76.5% = 2.82 maf storage ÷
3.68 maf live capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the Green River. 660kaf-1maf being released through Apr 2027 to prop up Powell, drawing it toward ~59%.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 917
Navajo
Capacity
61.2% full
Available Water
1.01 maf
≈ 0.3T gallons
Surface Elevation
6035.18 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-06-09 · 1d old · fetched 2026-06-10 · NGVD 1929
61.2% = 1.01 maf storage ÷
1.65 maf live capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the San Juan. No additional releases planned due to low levels and poor inflow forecasts.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 920
Autonomous amplifiers
Earth system mechanisms that, once activated by human-caused warming, amplify themselves independent of any further human action.
01
Permafrost thaw
ACTIVE
Permafrost thaw
Permeability rises by orders of magnitude across the −5°C to +1°C transition zone.
Arctic warming at 4× the global average rate — closing the gap to the transition zone.
Feedback operates independently of subsequent emissions reductions once the transition begins.
Arctic mean temp
-8.7°C
ERA5 annual mean
Warming rate
+0.68°C
°C / decade since 1979
Methane rise
+10.8
ppb / yr · 5-yr mean
Carbon stock
~1,500
Gt C
Active layer depth
~57 cm
CALM 2023 mean
Human control
INDIRECT
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch. 5 (carbon stock ~1,460–1,600 Gt C); Turetsky et al. 2019 Nature Geosci. (abrupt thaw); Burt & Williams 1976 (permeability transition). Active layer: CALM circumpolar network (~170 sites); NOAA Arctic Report Card 2023. Arctic temperature: ERA5 via Climate Reanalyzer, 66.5–90°N annual mean. CH₄ growth rate: NOAA GML global marine surface network monthly mean (ch4_mm_gl.txt); 5-year mean rate; multiple sources contribute to CH₄ growth (permafrost, wetlands, fossil fuels) — not permafrost-exclusive.
05
Coral reef collapse
ACTIVE
Coral reef collapse
37.0%
% of reefs globally under bleaching alert · rolling 365d
Coral reefs cover <1% of the ocean floor but support ~25% of all marine species and food security for 500 million people.
Bleaching occurs when thermal stress exceeds 4°C-weeks above the maximum monthly mean. Bleached reefs release stored carbon and shift from net sink to net emitter.
The 4th global bleaching event (2023–24) was the most extensive on record. Event intervals have compressed from decade-scale to near-annual.
Pacific
29.6%
% at AL1 · rolling 365d
Atlantic
90.5%
% at AL1 · rolling 365d
Indian Ocean
29.6%
% at AL1 · rolling 365d
Human control
INDIRECT
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA Coral Reef Watch CoralTemp v3.1 5km satellite product. Bleaching Alert Area (BAA): % of reef pixels globally at Alert Level 1 (DHW ≥4°C-weeks, bleaching expected with some mortality) within the rolling past 365 days. 5-day maximum composite. No auth; daily update. Active global bleaching event threshold: ≥20% globally and ≥12% in each tropical ocean basin concurrently for ≥22 weeks (NOAA/ICRI 2024 criteria). Carbon feedback: Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2017 Science 356; IPCC AR6 WGII Ch. 3.2.
07
Greenland Ice Sheet
CROSSED
Greenland Ice Sheet
7 m
sea level equivalent — full Greenland commitment
The Greenland Ice Sheet sits in a trap of its own lowering. As surface ice melts, the sheet surface drops into warmer air — the atmosphere cools with altitude at −6.5°C per 1,000 m, so every meter lost brings the remaining ice into a warmer layer. More melt, lower surface, warmer air, more melt.
Above approximately 1.5°C of global warming, this loop cannot be closed. That threshold is behind us. The sheet’s full contribution — 7 metres of sea level equivalent — is now a question of centuries, not if.
⟷ AMOC forcing — Greenland meltwater discharge is a primary autonomous freshwater input disrupting North Atlantic circulation. See AMOC panel.
1992–2002 avg
-43
Gt/yr
2010–2018 avg
-234
Gt/yr
1.5°C threshold
CROSSED
Human control
NONE
ⓘ methodology & sources
Mass balance data: IMBIE / Bamber et al. 2018 (Earth Syst. Sci. Data), integrated multi-method assessment (altimetry + gravimetry + input-output method), 1992–2018. Commitment threshold: Robinson et al. 2012 Nature; Ridley et al. 2010 Climate Dynamics. Sea level equivalent: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch9. Coupling mechanism: freshwater flux suppresses North Atlantic deep water formation (Köhl et al. 2023; Caesar et al. 2021).
04
AMOC carbon release
AT RISK
AMOC carbon release
Collapse would add 47–83 ppm CO₂ from Southern Ocean outgassing alone, independent of human emissions.
Published estimates cover Southern Ocean outgassing only; Greenland meltwater contributions are not included in current models.
⟷ Greenland coupling — The meltwater forcing excluded from current models is quantified on this page. Greenland’s elevation feedback is autonomously accelerating freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic. See Greenland Ice Sheet panel.
Transport 2004–2012
17.3 Sv
Transport 2015–pres
16.8 Sv
Potential CO₂ release
47–83
ppm if collapse
Human control
NONE
ⓘ methodology & sources
Transport data: RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS program, rapid.ac.uk; McCarthy et al. 2015 Geophys. Res. Lett. Trend −1.1 Sv/decade. Consequence if collapse: Zhu et al. 2023 Nat. Clim. Change (47–83 ppm CO₂ from Southern Ocean outgassing, independent of human emissions). Models exclude Greenland meltwater.
02
Amazon carbon flip
WEAKENING
Amazon carbon flip
Eastern Amazon now net carbon emitter.
Previously absorbing ~2 Gt CO₂/yr.
A structural reversal in the Amazon's role in the global carbon budget.
Gatti et al. 2021 · eastern Amazon only · schematic trend · see source for uncertainty ranges
Net emission
0.8
Gt CO₂ / yr
Previous sink
~2.0
Gt CO₂ / yr
Response time
YEARS–DECADES
Human control
LOW
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: Gatti et al. 2021 Nature 595 (Eastern Amazon flux 2010–2018); Global Carbon Project 2023. Sign convention: positive = net absorption (sink); negative = net emission. Data schematic — see source for annual uncertainty ranges.
06
Boreal forest dieback
ACTIVE
Boreal forest dieback
Boreal forests (Canada, Russia, Alaska) cover 30% of the world’s forested area and store 30–40% of all terrestrial carbon — the largest land carbon pool on Earth.
Warming at 2–4× the global average drives a self-reinforcing cycle: warmer winters let bark beetles survive and kill billions of trees; dead forests burn; fires expose permafrost; permafrost releases CO₂ and CH₄ that drives further warming.
The 2023 Canadian fire season burned 18.4 Mha — the largest on record by a factor of two. North American boreal released 1.89 Gt CO₂, equal to 3.3× Canada’s entire annual fossil-fuel output in a single fire season.
GFED5 · annual emissions · 2025 data pending
2023 fire season
1.89 Gt CO₂
5.3× the long-run average
2023 fires vs. Canada fossil fuels
3.3×
one fire season = Canada’s annual CO₂ output
Long-run average
0.36 Gt CO₂/yr
N. America boreal · 1997–2024
2026 season · live
10,191
satellite fire detections · Canada + Alaska · YTD
Human control
NONE
structural · decades timescale
ⓘ methodology & sources
Historical emissions: GFED5.1 CO₂ summary table (globalfiredata.org; van der Werf et al. 2023, Nat. Clim. Change). BONA (Boreal North America) region; units 1×10¹³ g CO₂ converted to Gt. Bars show all fire types combined. Current-year detections: NASA FIRMS VIIRS SNPP (SP archive + NRT), bbox 168°W–52°W 50°N–84°N, nominal + high confidence only (firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov; FIRMS_MAP_KEY required). Canada fossil-fuel reference: Environment and Climate Change Canada 2024 National Inventory Report (~0.57 Gt CO₂ fossil + industrial). Feedback pathway: fire carbon release → warming → drying + beetle kill → more fire; coupled to Permafrost thaw card #01.
07
Thwaites glacier
ACTIVE
Thwaites glacier
3.3 m
Committed sea level rise:
If full Thwaites buttressing fails
Thwaites sits on a retrograde bed — rock that slopes deeper inland. As warm ocean water pushes the grounding line inward, it retreats onto deeper bed, exposing more ice face to melt, accelerating the retreat further. The geometry is the amplifier.
Human warming pulled the trigger. The bed sustains the process regardless of what happens to emissions next. The ITGC finds no scenario in which retreat reverses on human timescales.
Thwaites buttresses neighboring West Antarctic glaciers. If the buttressing fails, neighboring glaciers accelerate. The committed rise is not from Thwaites alone.
BedMachine v3 · central flowline · Morlighem et al. 2020
MEaSUREs NSIDC-0498 · Rignot et al. 2014 · Milillo et al. 2019
Thwaites alone
~65 cm
sea level rise at full collapse
GL retreat 1992–2011
14 km
Rignot et al. 2014 · western sector
Current retreat rate
~1 km/yr
accelerating · InSAR observations
Reversal timescale
NONE
geometry now drives the process
Human control
NONE
trigger pulled · ITGC consensus
ⓘ methodology & sources
Bed topography: BedMachine Antarctica v3 (Morlighem et al. 2020, Nat. Geosci. 13, 132–137; doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8); representative values along central Thwaites flowline. Grounding line retreat: MEaSUREs Antarctic Grounding Line from Differential Satellite Radar Interferometry v2 (NSIDC-0498); Rignot et al. 2014 GRL (14 km western sector 1992–2011); Milillo et al. 2019 Sci Adv (continued retreat 2011–2017, up to 4 km/yr in eastern sector). Current rate ~1 km/yr average; series extended to 2023 at observed rate. Committed SLR: Thwaites alone ~65 cm (Joughin et al. 2014, Science 344, 735–738); full WAIS with buttressing failure 3.3 m (Bamber et al. 2019, Nature 575, 58–62). Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI): Weertman 1974; Schoof 2007, Science 315, 838–841. ITGC: International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (itgc.org), ongoing since 2019.
SYNTHESIS
Pulling it all together
Persistent planetary energy imbalance propagates through interconnected Earth systems with different response times, thresholds, and recovery capacities. This page synthesises the observatory into a single systems-level view.
OBSERVATORY STATE · ANALYSIS
The energy imbalance is the upstream fact from which the rest of this page descends. The planet is absorbing roughly two-thirds more energy than it released across the CERES-era mean, and that surplus does not dissipate — it accumulates, overwhelmingly into the ocean. Every downstream reading on this page is a different accounting of where that retained energy goes: into the heat content of the upper ocean, into the thermal expansion that lifts the sea-level rate above its 1993–2005 baseline, into the atmosphere that dries fuel and melts ice. The imbalance is the budget; the other panels are the ledger entries.
What distinguishes this build from ordinary climate variability is that all six tracked domains are elevated at once, and El Niño is one of them — the matrix shows ENSO active at +1.00°C. That matters for how the synchronisation is read: this is not stress occurring against a neutral ocean that ENSO would otherwise explain. But the co-elevation of ocean heat, sea ice, food system, and wildfire alongside the warm phase exceeds what an El Niño of this magnitude has on its own produced. The domains share the energy imbalance as a common driver, so they are not independent. The claim is narrower and firmer: their simultaneous elevation is not slaved to a single climate mode. No one row carries the others.
What is locked in for this cycle is the ocean state and everything keyed to it. Heat content and the sea-level rate respond to accumulated energy, not to this year conditions, and both sit in the very-low and low control bands. Read the other panels accordingly: the food and fire rows are not separate emergencies but the same retained energy surfacing where land systems are thinnest. The synchronisation is the signal — six of six is the reading no single panel shows.
ⓘ how this analysis is generated
This synthesis is generated by claude-opus-4-8 reading the observatory's current instrument readings across all panels.
Inputs: CERES EBAF (EEI), NCEI/Argo (OHC), NSIDC (sea ice), USDA FAS PSD (grain stocks), NIFC (fire), NOAA CPC (ENSO), NASA GISTEMP (global temperature), CU Sea Level (GMSL), RAPID array (AMOC), NOAA GML (CO₂).
Generated 2026-06-04. The analysis follows the observatory's editorial posture: unhedged, no net-zero conditionals, damage-limitation framing. No prescription.
ENERGY PROPAGATION
The cascade
EEI as the single upstream driver. Energy propagates through each system with different response times and remaining human control. Click any node to view its source panel.
REVERSIBILITY
Response times — where each system sits on its curve
Not a prediction. A "where are we in the process" read — each system's position relative to its own response and recovery curve.
SYNCHRONIZATION
Co-elevation — systems stressed simultaneously
The argument is not that any one system is at a record. It is that multiple systems are elevated at once. That synchronisation is what makes 2026 structurally different from prior climate variability — including prior El Niño years.
| YEAR | EEI | OHC | SEA ICE | FOOD | FIRE | ENSO | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 NOW | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | 6 domains tracked — 6 of 6 elevated |
| 2023 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ○ | ○ | ▲ | Record OHC. Severe Antarctic sea ice deficit. El Nino developing. Food and US fire not at threshold. |
| 2016 | ○ | ▲ | ▲ | ○ | ○ | ▲ | Strongest El Nino in satellite record. Record winter sea ice low. Ocean heat elevated. Food and fire systems not stressed. |
| 2012 | ▲ | ○ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ○ | Arctic record minimum. US drought. Record fire year. No El Nino forcing — structural stress. |
| 1998 | — | — | ○ | ○ | — | ▲ | El Nino dominant — strongest on record at the time. Energy and ocean systems not yet in satellite era. |
▲ elevated / stressed relative to historical baseline
○ within historical envelope
— pre-satellite era or data unavailable
ⓘ methodology — threshold definitions
EEI: Annual mean > CERES record mean (1.10 W/m², 2001–present). Pre-2001: —.
OHC: 5-year mean gain > 2005–present mean rate (10.5 ZJ/yr). Pre-2005: —.
Sea ice: Annual mean NSIDC extent >1 SD below 1981–2010 climatological mean (11.47 M km²). Current year: any days below per-DOY all-time minimum.
Food: Global corn stocks-to-use < 90-day buffer floor (USDA FAS PSD).
Fire: NIFC acres ≥ 125% of prior 10-year average. Historical years: full-year totals vs contemporary 10yr average.
ENSO: Niño 3.4 ≥ +0.5°C for 3+ consecutive months, 1991–2020 baseline (NOAA CPC).
OHC: 5-year mean gain > 2005–present mean rate (10.5 ZJ/yr). Pre-2005: —.
Sea ice: Annual mean NSIDC extent >1 SD below 1981–2010 climatological mean (11.47 M km²). Current year: any days below per-DOY all-time minimum.
Food: Global corn stocks-to-use < 90-day buffer floor (USDA FAS PSD).
Fire: NIFC acres ≥ 125% of prior 10-year average. Historical years: full-year totals vs contemporary 10yr average.
ENSO: Niño 3.4 ≥ +0.5°C for 3+ consecutive months, 1991–2020 baseline (NOAA CPC).
CONTROL ASYMMETRY
What remains controllable
The honest close. Systems where human influence remains HIGH or MODERATE get one visual treatment. Systems where it is LOW or VERY LOW get another. The line is drawn at the boundary between HIGH/MODERATE and LOW/VERY LOW human control — not editorial judgment, but a direct output of the systems science.
| SYSTEM | HUMAN INFLUENCE | HUMAN CONTROL |
|---|---|---|
| LEVERS THAT REMAIN | ||
| CO₂ emissions | DIRECT | HIGH |
| Aerosol masking trap | DIRECT (involuntary) | MODERATE |
| Atmospheric moisture | MODERATE | MODERATE |
| RESPONSES ALREADY IN MOTION | ||
| Ocean heat accumulation | INDIRECT | LOW |
| Permafrost thaw | INDIRECT | LOW |
| Sea level rise | INDIRECT | LOW |
| Ice sheet response | INDIRECT | VERY LOW |
| Ocean circulation (AMOC) | INDIRECT | VERY LOW |