Climate Signal

2026 Trajectory / Climate Observability Platform / No Conditionals
2026-09-26 · 05:00 UTC
44 OF 53 SOURCES CURRENT · 9 STALE
9 STALE

The Godzilla El Niño

The equatorial Pacific is the planet's primary weather engine. ENSO shifts rainfall, drought, storm tracks, and global mean temperature across seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Four indicators read the current state: the canonical Niño 3.4 index, the CFSv2 ensemble forecast, the Southern Oscillation Index (atmospheric confirmation), and a real-time SST map.

Niño 3.4 Forecast Cone · Oct 2025 → Jun 2027
ENSEMBLE MEAN PEAK · FORECAST
+3.72°C
+1.00°C OVER PRIOR RECORD
prior record: +2.72°C · 2015–16
SEAS5 peak: +4.13°C
NOAA CPC CFSv2 · NCEI obs CURRENT
Init Aug 26–Sep 24, 2026
Target Oct2026 - Jun2027
Forecast collector: 2026-09-26 · 0d old
Obs (SAT) thru 2026-09-24 · 2d old Obs (ARGO) thru 2026-09-20 · 6d old · 10d window
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 Oct 2025 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun +2.92°C El Niño onset — 2026-04-14, first sustained +0.5°C crossing EL NIÑO STARTS +3.34°C OBSERVED CFSv2 FORECAST → mean +3.72°C +2.92°C mean +3.27°C 5–95% +3.01…+3.58 mean +3.72°C 5–95% +3.31…+4.20 mean +3.48°C 5–95% +3.19…+3.82 mean +2.86°C 5–95% +2.52…+3.17 mean +2.40°C 5–95% +2.06…+2.75 mean +1.85°C 5–95% +1.40…+2.33 mean +1.28°C 5–95% +0.85…+1.78 mean +0.78°C 5–95% +0.19…+1.31 mean +0.35°C 5–95% -0.38…+1.01
Historical 5th–95th Observed (OISST daily) Forecast 5th–95th (116 members) Ensemble mean
What you're looking at: Left of the seam: OISST daily Niño 3.4 Oct 2025–Sep 24. Right: the CFSv2 ensemble cone through Jun 2027. Left of the seam: Argo float profiles in the Niño 3.4 box, surface depth (mid/deep shown as reference only) — an independent instrument corroborating the satellite SST signal, not a faster or leading measurement. Right: the CFSv2 ensemble cone through Jun2027.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Forecast = 116-member CFSv2 ensemble (5th–95th band + mean); seasonal 3-mo means, steps at the seam monthly per the source file. The historical band uses the same 1991–2020 basis and 3-mo smoothing, so the seam carries no kink. Companion to the chart at left: that one shows where 2026 sits across 75 years; this shows where it's going and whether that's off the historical scale.
SOURCE · cfsv2_nino34
Niño 3.4 · Equatorial Pacific SST · 2026 vs 1981–2025 · CPC weekly + OISST daily
NOAA CPC · OISSTv2 weekly CURRENT
2026-09-16 · 10d old
2026-09-24 · 2d old
2026-09-24 · 2d old
2026-09 · provisional
-2°C 0°C 2°C 4°C Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Provisional — daily estimate, not yet confirmed by the weekly source Hover the chart to compare years
24°C25°C26°C27°C28°C29°C30°CJanMarMayJulSepNovHover to compare years
-4 SD-3 SD-2 SD-1 SD+0 SD+1 SD+2 SD+3 SD+4 SD+5 SDJanMarMayJulSepNov
Jan 1950: -1.99°C Feb 1950: -1.69°C Mar 1950: -1.42°C Apr 1950: -1.54°C May 1950: -1.75°C Jun 1950: -1.27°C Jul 1950: -1.01°C Aug 1950: -0.97°C Sep 1950: -0.98°C Oct 1950: -1.03°C Nov 1950: -1.23°C Dec 1950: -1.31°C 1950 Jan 1951: -1.30°C Feb 1951: -1.04°C Mar 1951: -0.38°C Apr 1951: -0.23°C May 1951: -0.01°C Jun 1951: +0.00°C Jul 1951: +0.30°C Aug 1951: +0.17°C Sep 1951: +0.51°C Oct 1951: +0.49°C Nov 1951: +0.55°C Dec 1951: +0.31°C Jan 1952: +0.13°C Feb 1952: -0.01°C Mar 1952: -0.11°C Apr 1952: -0.02°C May 1952: -0.14°C Jun 1952: -0.54°C Jul 1952: -0.76°C Aug 1952: -0.56°C Sep 1952: -0.36°C Oct 1952: -0.46°C Nov 1952: -0.78°C Dec 1952: -0.39°C Jan 1953: +0.20°C Feb 1953: +0.24°C Mar 1953: +0.29°C Apr 1953: +0.22°C May 1953: +0.35°C Jun 1953: +0.39°C Jul 1953: +0.14°C Aug 1953: +0.09°C Sep 1953: +0.29°C Oct 1953: +0.16°C Nov 1953: +0.18°C Dec 1953: +0.41°C Jan 1954: +0.43°C Feb 1954: +0.28°C Mar 1954: -0.38°C Apr 1954: -1.17°C May 1954: -0.81°C Jun 1954: -0.93°C Jul 1954: -1.18°C Aug 1954: -1.43°C Sep 1954: -1.60°C Oct 1954: -1.48°C Nov 1954: -1.13°C Dec 1954: -1.33°C Jan 1955: -0.93°C Feb 1955: -0.95°C Mar 1955: -1.06°C Apr 1955: -1.22°C May 1955: -1.28°C Jun 1955: -1.18°C Jul 1955: -1.15°C Aug 1955: -1.35°C Sep 1955: -1.43°C Oct 1955: -2.31°C Nov 1955: -2.45°C Dec 1955: -2.03°C 1955 Jan 1956: -1.20°C Feb 1956: -0.99°C Mar 1956: -0.83°C Apr 1956: -0.97°C May 1956: -0.80°C Jun 1956: -0.92°C Jul 1956: -1.06°C Aug 1956: -1.17°C Sep 1956: -0.98°C Oct 1956: -0.97°C Nov 1956: -1.14°C Dec 1956: -0.89°C Jan 1957: -0.51°C Feb 1957: -0.22°C Mar 1957: +0.18°C Apr 1957: +0.41°C May 1957: +0.62°C Jun 1957: +0.63°C Jul 1957: +0.87°C Aug 1957: +0.84°C Sep 1957: +0.72°C Oct 1957: +0.70°C Nov 1957: +0.92°C Dec 1957: +1.30°C Jan 1958: +1.78°C Feb 1958: +1.49°C Mar 1958: +0.98°C Apr 1958: +0.46°C May 1958: +0.38°C Jun 1958: +0.26°C Jul 1958: +0.03°C Aug 1958: -0.01°C Sep 1958: -0.32°C Oct 1958: -0.27°C Nov 1958: +0.05°C Dec 1958: +0.02°C Jan 1959: +0.53°C Feb 1959: +0.43°C Mar 1959: +0.19°C Apr 1959: +0.06°C May 1959: -0.23°C Jun 1959: -0.35°C Jul 1959: -0.86°C Aug 1959: -0.77°C Sep 1959: -0.80°C Oct 1959: -0.48°C Nov 1959: -0.66°C Dec 1959: -0.42°C Jan 1960: -0.28°C Feb 1960: -0.46°C Mar 1960: -0.30°C Apr 1960: -0.33°C May 1960: -0.25°C Jun 1960: -0.49°C Jul 1960: -0.41°C Aug 1960: -0.15°C Sep 1960: -0.28°C Oct 1960: -0.49°C Nov 1960: -0.45°C Dec 1960: -0.38°C 1960 Jan 1961: -0.31°C Feb 1961: -0.19°C Mar 1961: -0.35°C Apr 1961: -0.46°C May 1961: -0.18°C Jun 1961: -0.06°C Jul 1961: -0.41°C Aug 1961: -0.67°C Sep 1961: -0.94°C Oct 1961: -1.01°C Nov 1961: -0.63°C Dec 1961: -0.63°C Jan 1962: -0.59°C Feb 1962: -0.57°C Mar 1962: -0.48°C Apr 1962: -0.69°C May 1962: -0.89°C Jun 1962: -0.65°C Jul 1962: -0.53°C Aug 1962: -0.53°C Sep 1962: -0.78°C Oct 1962: -0.75°C Nov 1962: -0.95°C Dec 1962: -0.93°C Jan 1963: -0.78°C Feb 1963: -0.53°C Mar 1963: -0.10°C Apr 1963: -0.03°C May 1963: -0.30°C Jun 1963: -0.11°C Jul 1963: +0.49°C Aug 1963: +0.62°C Sep 1963: +0.68°C Oct 1963: +0.64°C Nov 1963: +0.77°C Dec 1963: +1.02°C Jan 1964: +0.79°C Feb 1964: +0.38°C Mar 1964: -0.26°C Apr 1964: -0.87°C May 1964: -1.12°C Jun 1964: -1.14°C Jul 1964: -0.96°C Aug 1964: -1.26°C Sep 1964: -1.40°C Oct 1964: -1.35°C Nov 1964: -1.44°C Dec 1964: -1.37°C Jan 1965: -0.89°C Feb 1965: -0.56°C Mar 1965: -0.34°C Apr 1965: -0.44°C May 1965: +0.06°C Jun 1965: +0.36°C Jul 1965: +0.61°C Aug 1965: +1.12°C Sep 1965: +1.29°C Oct 1965: +1.45°C Nov 1965: +1.42°C Dec 1965: +1.36°C 1965 Jan 1966: +1.12°C Feb 1966: +0.80°C Mar 1966: +0.93°C Apr 1966: +0.35°C May 1966: -0.38°C Jun 1966: -0.08°C Jul 1966: +0.04°C Aug 1966: -0.37°C Sep 1966: -0.44°C Oct 1966: -0.50°C Nov 1966: -0.47°C Dec 1966: -0.57°C Jan 1967: -0.67°C Feb 1967: -0.64°C Mar 1967: -0.78°C Apr 1967: -1.08°C May 1967: -0.59°C Jun 1967: -0.26°C Jul 1967: -0.33°C Aug 1967: -0.42°C Sep 1967: -0.86°C Oct 1967: -0.74°C Nov 1967: -0.62°C Dec 1967: -0.65°C Jan 1968: -0.85°C Feb 1968: -1.07°C Mar 1968: -0.95°C Apr 1968: -0.72°C May 1968: -0.75°C Jun 1968: +0.15°C Jul 1968: +0.28°C Aug 1968: +0.16°C Sep 1968: +0.01°C Oct 1968: +0.04°C Nov 1968: +0.50°C Dec 1968: +0.67°C Jan 1969: +0.95°C Feb 1969: +1.11°C Mar 1969: +0.54°C Apr 1969: +0.31°C May 1969: +0.35°C Jun 1969: -0.04°C Jul 1969: -0.21°C Aug 1969: +0.16°C Sep 1969: +0.43°C Oct 1969: +0.62°C Nov 1969: +0.40°C Dec 1969: +0.38°C Jan 1970: +0.28°C Feb 1970: +0.20°C Mar 1970: -0.14°C Apr 1970: -0.08°C May 1970: -0.30°C Jun 1970: -0.69°C Jul 1970: -1.08°C Aug 1970: -1.26°C Sep 1970: -1.07°C Oct 1970: -1.12°C Nov 1970: -1.13°C Dec 1970: -1.33°C 1970 Jan 1971: -1.73°C Feb 1971: -1.57°C Mar 1971: -1.36°C Apr 1971: -1.18°C May 1971: -0.98°C Jun 1971: -1.13°C Jul 1971: -1.17°C Aug 1971: -1.10°C Sep 1971: -1.00°C Oct 1971: -1.24°C Nov 1971: -1.15°C Dec 1971: -1.23°C Jan 1972: -0.92°C Feb 1972: -0.45°C Mar 1972: -0.19°C Apr 1972: +0.07°C May 1972: +0.38°C Jun 1972: +0.45°C Jul 1972: +0.85°C Aug 1972: +1.09°C Sep 1972: +1.23°C Oct 1972: +1.54°C Nov 1972: +1.90°C Dec 1972: +2.09°C Jan 1973: +1.80°C Feb 1973: +1.20°C Mar 1973: +0.27°C Apr 1973: -0.58°C May 1973: -0.97°C Jun 1973: -1.18°C Jul 1973: -1.54°C Aug 1973: -1.63°C Sep 1973: -1.66°C Oct 1973: -1.98°C Nov 1973: -2.37°C Dec 1973: -2.26°C Jan 1974: -2.09°C Feb 1974: -1.66°C Mar 1974: -1.45°C Apr 1974: -1.36°C May 1974: -1.29°C Jun 1974: -1.20°C Jul 1974: -0.90°C Aug 1974: -0.52°C Sep 1974: -0.64°C Oct 1974: -0.94°C Nov 1974: -1.09°C Dec 1974: -0.97°C Jan 1975: -0.45°C Feb 1975: -0.68°C Mar 1975: -1.09°C Apr 1975: -0.96°C May 1975: -1.13°C Jun 1975: -1.50°C Jul 1975: -1.39°C Aug 1975: -1.52°C Sep 1975: -1.66°C Oct 1975: -1.83°C Nov 1975: -1.66°C Dec 1975: -1.93°C 1975 Jan 1976: -2.01°C Feb 1976: -1.26°C Mar 1976: -0.82°C Apr 1976: -0.93°C May 1976: -0.74°C Jun 1976: -0.38°C Jul 1976: -0.16°C Aug 1976: +0.12°C Sep 1976: +0.30°C Oct 1976: +0.75°C Nov 1976: +0.71°C Dec 1976: +0.49°C Jan 1977: +0.78°C Feb 1977: +0.37°C Mar 1977: +0.19°C Apr 1977: -0.38°C May 1977: -0.21°C Jun 1977: +0.01°C Jul 1977: +0.09°C Aug 1977: -0.01°C Sep 1977: +0.40°C Oct 1977: +0.63°C Nov 1977: +0.48°C Dec 1977: +0.70°C Jan 1978: +0.62°C Feb 1978: +0.25°C Mar 1978: -0.20°C Apr 1978: -0.70°C May 1978: -0.74°C Jun 1978: -0.71°C Jul 1978: -0.55°C Aug 1978: -0.79°C Sep 1978: -0.71°C Oct 1978: -0.46°C Nov 1978: -0.38°C Dec 1978: -0.06°C Jan 1979: -0.13°C Feb 1979: -0.22°C Mar 1979: -0.02°C Apr 1979: +0.02°C May 1979: -0.25°C Jun 1979: -0.29°C Jul 1979: -0.47°C Aug 1979: -0.10°C Sep 1979: +0.28°C Oct 1979: +0.11°C Nov 1979: +0.29°C Dec 1979: +0.52°C Jan 1980: +0.54°C Feb 1980: +0.22°C Mar 1980: +0.03°C Apr 1980: -0.07°C May 1980: +0.08°C Jun 1980: +0.21°C Jul 1980: -0.06°C Aug 1980: -0.38°C Sep 1980: -0.28°C Oct 1980: -0.26°C Nov 1980: -0.10°C Dec 1980: +0.05°C 1980 Jan 1981: -0.36°C Feb 1981: -0.64°C Mar 1981: -0.64°C Apr 1981: -0.53°C May 1981: -0.57°C Jun 1981: -0.46°C Jul 1981: -0.64°C Aug 1981: -0.53°C Sep 1981: -0.35°C Oct 1981: -0.23°C Nov 1981: -0.68°C Dec 1981: -0.39°C Jan 1982: +0.10°C Feb 1982: -0.21°C Mar 1982: -0.14°C Apr 1982: +0.02°C May 1982: +0.48°C Jun 1982: +0.65°C Jul 1982: +0.27°C Aug 1982: +0.90°C Sep 1982: +1.29°C Oct 1982: +1.82°C Nov 1982: +1.76°C Dec 1982: +2.30°C Jan 1983: +2.23°C Feb 1983: +1.89°C Mar 1983: +1.30°C Apr 1983: +0.74°C May 1983: +0.71°C Jun 1983: +0.46°C Jul 1983: -0.39°C Aug 1983: -0.49°C Sep 1983: -0.43°C Oct 1983: -1.08°C Nov 1983: -1.38°C Dec 1983: -1.22°C Jan 1984: -1.00°C Feb 1984: -0.16°C Mar 1984: -0.56°C Apr 1984: -0.55°C May 1984: -0.72°C Jun 1984: -1.08°C Jul 1984: -0.70°C Aug 1984: -0.54°C Sep 1984: -0.42°C Oct 1984: -0.78°C Nov 1984: -1.37°C Dec 1984: -1.52°C Jan 1985: -1.33°C Feb 1985: -0.94°C Mar 1985: -0.90°C Apr 1985: -1.14°C May 1985: -1.11°C Jun 1985: -1.11°C Jul 1985: -0.81°C Aug 1985: -0.64°C Sep 1985: -0.80°C Oct 1985: -0.75°C Nov 1985: -0.58°C Dec 1985: -0.58°C 1985 Jan 1986: -0.72°C Feb 1986: -0.81°C Mar 1986: -0.61°C Apr 1986: -0.53°C May 1986: -0.58°C Jun 1986: -0.34°C Jul 1986: -0.03°C Aug 1986: +0.22°C Sep 1986: +0.43°C Oct 1986: +0.54°C Nov 1986: +0.56°C Dec 1986: +0.86°C Jan 1987: +0.99°C Feb 1987: +0.85°C Mar 1987: +0.93°C Apr 1987: +0.47°C May 1987: +0.34°C Jun 1987: +0.76°C Jul 1987: +1.08°C Aug 1987: +1.24°C Sep 1987: +1.35°C Oct 1987: +0.98°C Nov 1987: +0.85°C Dec 1987: +0.77°C Jan 1988: +0.68°C Feb 1988: +0.21°C Mar 1988: +0.03°C Apr 1988: -0.60°C May 1988: -1.43°C Jun 1988: -1.78°C Jul 1988: -1.78°C Aug 1988: -1.46°C Sep 1988: -0.94°C Oct 1988: -2.08°C Nov 1988: -2.29°C Dec 1988: -2.05°C Jan 1989: -2.04°C Feb 1989: -1.50°C Mar 1989: -1.48°C Apr 1989: -1.36°C May 1989: -0.92°C Jun 1989: -0.68°C Jul 1989: -0.57°C Aug 1989: -0.71°C Sep 1989: -0.50°C Oct 1989: -0.56°C Nov 1989: -0.63°C Dec 1989: -0.18°C Jan 1990: -0.09°C Feb 1990: +0.02°C Mar 1990: -0.17°C Apr 1990: -0.06°C May 1990: +0.05°C Jun 1990: -0.27°C Jul 1990: -0.01°C Aug 1990: +0.11°C Sep 1990: -0.04°C Oct 1990: +0.19°C Nov 1990: -0.10°C Dec 1990: +0.23°C 1990 Jan 1991: +0.35°C Feb 1991: +0.15°C Mar 1991: -0.08°C Apr 1991: +0.09°C May 1991: +0.26°C Jun 1991: +0.40°C Jul 1991: +0.48°C Aug 1991: +0.62°C Sep 1991: +0.30°C Oct 1991: +0.65°C Nov 1991: +0.91°C Dec 1991: +1.56°C Jan 1992: +1.75°C Feb 1992: +1.62°C Mar 1992: +1.20°C Apr 1992: +1.03°C May 1992: +0.94°C Jun 1992: +0.41°C Jul 1992: +0.15°C Aug 1992: -0.09°C Sep 1992: -0.17°C Oct 1992: -0.53°C Nov 1992: -0.19°C Dec 1992: +0.16°C Jan 1993: +0.16°C Feb 1993: +0.33°C Mar 1993: +0.23°C Apr 1993: +0.34°C May 1993: +0.67°C Jun 1993: +0.15°C Jul 1993: +0.21°C Aug 1993: -0.06°C Sep 1993: +0.22°C Oct 1993: +0.18°C Nov 1993: +0.06°C Dec 1993: +0.09°C Jan 1994: +0.02°C Feb 1994: -0.09°C Mar 1994: +0.14°C Apr 1994: +0.08°C May 1994: +0.12°C Jun 1994: +0.14°C Jul 1994: -0.02°C Aug 1994: +0.43°C Sep 1994: +0.27°C Oct 1994: +0.62°C Nov 1994: +0.94°C Dec 1994: +1.20°C Jan 1995: +0.78°C Feb 1995: +0.66°C Mar 1995: +0.30°C Apr 1995: +0.08°C May 1995: -0.23°C Jun 1995: -0.38°C Jul 1995: -0.23°C Aug 1995: -0.60°C Sep 1995: -0.67°C Oct 1995: -0.97°C Nov 1995: -1.03°C Dec 1995: -0.93°C 1995 Jan 1996: -0.83°C Feb 1996: -0.79°C Mar 1996: -0.69°C Apr 1996: -0.50°C May 1996: -0.51°C Jun 1996: -0.47°C Jul 1996: -0.35°C Aug 1996: -0.30°C Sep 1996: -0.35°C Oct 1996: -0.58°C Nov 1996: -0.44°C Dec 1996: -0.60°C Jan 1997: -0.62°C Feb 1997: -0.38°C Mar 1997: -0.35°C Apr 1997: -0.10°C May 1997: +0.43°C Jun 1997: +0.86°C Jul 1997: +1.34°C Aug 1997: +1.76°C Sep 1997: +1.91°C Oct 1997: +2.04°C Nov 1997: +2.19°C Dec 1997: +2.19°C Jan 1998: +2.12°C Feb 1998: +1.80°C Mar 1998: +1.22°C Apr 1998: +0.52°C May 1998: +0.46°C Jun 1998: -0.86°C Jul 1998: -1.27°C Aug 1998: -1.31°C Sep 1998: -1.10°C Oct 1998: -1.41°C Nov 1998: -1.39°C Dec 1998: -1.80°C Jan 1999: -1.64°C Feb 1999: -1.13°C Mar 1999: -0.92°C Apr 1999: -1.02°C May 1999: -0.94°C Jun 1999: -1.10°C Jul 1999: -1.04°C Aug 1999: -1.25°C Sep 1999: -1.03°C Oct 1999: -1.20°C Nov 1999: -1.67°C Dec 1999: -1.68°C Jan 2000: -1.80°C Feb 2000: -1.56°C Mar 2000: -1.17°C Apr 2000: -0.91°C May 2000: -0.98°C Jun 2000: -0.69°C Jul 2000: -0.71°C Aug 2000: -0.48°C Sep 2000: -0.52°C Oct 2000: -0.72°C Nov 2000: -0.92°C Dec 2000: -1.06°C 2000 Jan 2001: -0.77°C Feb 2001: -0.57°C Mar 2001: -0.38°C Apr 2001: -0.57°C May 2001: -0.47°C Jun 2001: -0.15°C Jul 2001: -0.09°C Aug 2001: -0.08°C Sep 2001: -0.19°C Oct 2001: -0.26°C Nov 2001: -0.49°C Dec 2001: -0.53°C Jan 2002: -0.17°C Feb 2002: +0.06°C Mar 2002: -0.05°C Apr 2002: +0.04°C May 2002: +0.21°C Jun 2002: +0.63°C Jul 2002: +0.61°C Aug 2002: +0.70°C Sep 2002: +0.89°C Oct 2002: +1.07°C Nov 2002: +1.26°C Dec 2002: +1.34°C Jan 2003: +0.91°C Feb 2003: +0.67°C Mar 2003: +0.52°C Apr 2003: -0.14°C May 2003: -0.63°C Jun 2003: -0.36°C Jul 2003: +0.04°C Aug 2003: +0.03°C Sep 2003: +0.20°C Oct 2003: +0.43°C Nov 2003: +0.21°C Dec 2003: +0.35°C Jan 2004: +0.22°C Feb 2004: +0.17°C Mar 2004: -0.21°C Apr 2004: -0.06°C May 2004: +0.08°C Jun 2004: -0.00°C Jul 2004: +0.51°C Aug 2004: +0.66°C Sep 2004: +0.69°C Oct 2004: +0.64°C Nov 2004: +0.59°C Dec 2004: +0.65°C Jan 2005: +0.62°C Feb 2005: +0.23°C Mar 2005: +0.27°C Apr 2005: +0.14°C May 2005: +0.23°C Jun 2005: +0.21°C Jul 2005: +0.07°C Aug 2005: +0.05°C Sep 2005: -0.12°C Oct 2005: -0.07°C Nov 2005: -0.55°C Dec 2005: -0.82°C 2005 Jan 2006: -0.94°C Feb 2006: -0.69°C Mar 2006: -0.69°C Apr 2006: -0.28°C May 2006: -0.06°C Jun 2006: +0.10°C Jul 2006: -0.01°C Aug 2006: +0.36°C Sep 2006: +0.55°C Oct 2006: +0.66°C Nov 2006: +0.86°C Dec 2006: +1.14°C Jan 2007: +0.77°C Feb 2007: +0.09°C Mar 2007: -0.09°C Apr 2007: -0.11°C May 2007: -0.45°C Jun 2007: -0.14°C Jul 2007: -0.44°C Aug 2007: -0.60°C Sep 2007: -0.90°C Oct 2007: -1.23°C Nov 2007: -1.46°C Dec 2007: -1.21°C Jan 2008: -1.62°C Feb 2008: -1.54°C Mar 2008: -0.96°C Apr 2008: -0.86°C May 2008: -0.69°C Jun 2008: -0.64°C Jul 2008: -0.25°C Aug 2008: -0.06°C Sep 2008: -0.25°C Oct 2008: -0.21°C Nov 2008: -0.35°C Dec 2008: -0.83°C Jan 2009: -0.81°C Feb 2009: -0.59°C Mar 2009: -0.63°C Apr 2009: -0.17°C May 2009: +0.19°C Jun 2009: +0.43°C Jul 2009: +0.55°C Aug 2009: +0.71°C Sep 2009: +0.73°C Oct 2009: +0.93°C Nov 2009: +1.47°C Dec 2009: +1.73°C Jan 2010: +1.58°C Feb 2010: +1.23°C Mar 2010: +1.17°C Apr 2010: +0.61°C May 2010: -0.13°C Jun 2010: -0.58°C Jul 2010: -0.96°C Aug 2010: -1.25°C Sep 2010: -1.35°C Oct 2010: -1.43°C Nov 2010: -1.45°C Dec 2010: -1.21°C 2010 Jan 2011: -1.49°C Feb 2011: -1.20°C Mar 2011: -0.83°C Apr 2011: -0.75°C May 2011: -0.38°C Jun 2011: -0.29°C Jul 2011: -0.18°C Aug 2011: -0.41°C Sep 2011: -0.68°C Oct 2011: -0.72°C Nov 2011: -0.99°C Dec 2011: -0.99°C Jan 2012: -0.64°C Feb 2012: -0.56°C Mar 2012: -0.46°C Apr 2012: -0.54°C May 2012: -0.19°C Jun 2012: +0.28°C Jul 2012: +0.30°C Aug 2012: +0.72°C Sep 2012: +0.45°C Oct 2012: +0.36°C Nov 2012: +0.51°C Dec 2012: -0.48°C Jan 2013: -0.50°C Feb 2013: -0.51°C Mar 2013: -0.20°C Apr 2013: +0.13°C May 2013: -0.33°C Jun 2013: -0.34°C Jul 2013: -0.26°C Aug 2013: -0.50°C Sep 2013: +0.05°C Oct 2013: -0.17°C Nov 2013: -0.09°C Dec 2013: -0.19°C Jan 2014: -0.52°C Feb 2014: -0.89°C Mar 2014: -0.36°C Apr 2014: +0.20°C May 2014: +0.47°C Jun 2014: +0.49°C Jul 2014: -0.06°C Aug 2014: -0.03°C Sep 2014: +0.32°C Oct 2014: +0.44°C Nov 2014: +0.76°C Dec 2014: +0.64°C Jan 2015: +0.51°C Feb 2015: +0.75°C Mar 2015: +0.45°C Apr 2015: +0.85°C May 2015: +0.86°C Jun 2015: +1.07°C Jul 2015: +1.31°C Aug 2015: +1.71°C Sep 2015: +1.85°C Oct 2015: +2.28°C Nov 2015: +2.81°C Dec 2015: +2.47°C 2015 Jan 2016: +2.55°C Feb 2016: +2.30°C Mar 2016: +1.63°C Apr 2016: +0.97°C May 2016: +0.22°C Jun 2016: -0.04°C Jul 2016: -0.47°C Aug 2016: -0.52°C Sep 2016: -0.46°C Oct 2016: -0.74°C Nov 2016: -0.67°C Dec 2016: -0.35°C Jan 2017: -0.28°C Feb 2017: +0.09°C Mar 2017: +0.19°C Apr 2017: +0.35°C May 2017: +0.41°C Jun 2017: +0.38°C Jul 2017: +0.27°C Aug 2017: -0.08°C Sep 2017: -0.34°C Oct 2017: -0.40°C Nov 2017: -0.96°C Dec 2017: -0.97°C Jan 2018: -0.72°C Feb 2018: -0.70°C Mar 2018: -0.77°C Apr 2018: -0.53°C May 2018: -0.12°C Jun 2018: +0.16°C Jul 2018: +0.23°C Aug 2018: +0.29°C Sep 2018: +0.33°C Oct 2018: +0.89°C Nov 2018: +0.88°C Dec 2018: +0.92°C Jan 2019: +0.69°C Feb 2019: +0.72°C Mar 2019: +1.01°C Apr 2019: +0.74°C May 2019: +0.76°C Jun 2019: +0.61°C Jul 2019: +0.43°C Aug 2019: +0.15°C Sep 2019: -0.02°C Oct 2019: +0.53°C Nov 2019: +0.46°C Dec 2019: +0.42°C Jan 2020: +0.53°C Feb 2020: +0.34°C Mar 2020: +0.46°C Apr 2020: +0.40°C May 2020: -0.25°C Jun 2020: -0.29°C Jul 2020: -0.15°C Aug 2020: -0.56°C Sep 2020: -0.67°C Oct 2020: -1.17°C Nov 2020: -1.26°C Dec 2020: -1.00°C 2020 Jan 2021: -0.92°C Feb 2021: -0.88°C Mar 2021: -0.55°C Apr 2021: -0.58°C May 2021: -0.32°C Jun 2021: -0.03°C Jul 2021: -0.19°C Aug 2021: -0.29°C Sep 2021: -0.27°C Oct 2021: -0.80°C Nov 2021: -0.88°C Dec 2021: -1.06°C Jan 2022: -0.84°C Feb 2022: -0.72°C Mar 2022: -0.89°C Apr 2022: -0.99°C May 2022: -1.07°C Jun 2022: -0.66°C Jul 2022: -0.64°C Aug 2022: -0.98°C Sep 2022: -0.93°C Oct 2022: -0.84°C Nov 2022: -0.95°C Dec 2022: -0.84°C Jan 2023: -0.68°C Feb 2023: -0.47°C Mar 2023: -0.01°C Apr 2023: +0.19°C May 2023: +0.48°C Jun 2023: +0.93°C Jul 2023: +1.08°C Aug 2023: +1.33°C Sep 2023: +1.59°C Oct 2023: +1.61°C Nov 2023: +1.91°C Dec 2023: +2.02°C Jan 2024: +1.81°C Feb 2024: +1.55°C Mar 2024: +1.23°C Apr 2024: +0.83°C May 2024: +0.27°C Jun 2024: +0.23°C Jul 2024: +0.19°C Aug 2024: -0.05°C Sep 2024: -0.26°C Oct 2024: -0.33°C Nov 2024: -0.11°C Dec 2024: -0.64°C Jan 2025: -0.76°C Feb 2025: -0.35°C Mar 2025: +0.14°C Apr 2025: -0.13°C May 2025: -0.04°C Jun 2025: +0.01°C Jul 2025: -0.07°C Aug 2025: -0.32°C Sep 2025: -0.41°C Oct 2025: -0.48°C Nov 2025: -0.72°C Dec 2025: -0.62°C 2025 Jan 2026: -0.57°C Feb 2026: -0.19°C Mar 2026: +0.01°C Apr 2026: +0.48°C May 2026: +0.94°C Jun 2026: +1.60°C Jul 2026: +2.09°C Aug 2026: +2.58°C Sep 2026: +2.90°C (provisional) Oct 2026: no data Nov 2026: no data Dec 2026: no data Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Historical mean 1997 2015 2023 2026 Historical range 1981–2025 (45 yrs), 5th–95th pct OISST daily · provisional
1991–2020 mean 1988 1997 1999 2015 2023 2026 All years 1981–2025
Each line = 1 year, 1981–2025 2026 (Climate Reanalyzer, daily)
+1.5°C +3.0°C+ Blank = below +1.5°C that month Dashed = provisional (daily OISST, not yet confirmed)
Niño 3.4 · Sep 24 (daily) +2.92°C 1991–2020 baseline · El Niño
Same month, older baseline +1.74°C 1971–2000 baseline
Absolute SST · Niño 3.4 29.6°C physical sea surface temperature
Among all Seps (76 yr) #1/77 100.0th percentile — near record
Niño 3.4 · Sep 23 +3.62 SD vs 1991–2020 mean
Highest on Sep 23 (46 yrs) 2026 +3.62 SD — 2026 leads
Days ≥ +2 SD this year 117/266 strong-anomaly threshold
Rank, this calendar day (46 yr) #1/46 100th percentile
This episode, running 5mo ≥+0.5°C since 2026-05 · latest month provisional
Months ≥+2.0°C, this episode 3 record: 5 (2015–16)
Months ≥+2.5°C, this episode 2 record: 2 (2015–16)
El Niño episodes since 1950 19 ≥5 consecutive months ≥+0.5°C
How to read this: 2026 (purple) vs every week 1981–2025. Band = 5th–95th percentile range. 1997, 2015, 2023 shown for comparison.
How to read this: 2026 (purple) in raw °C vs the 1991–2020 mean (dashed). 1988, 1997, 1999, 2015, 2023 shown for comparison.
How to read this: 2026 (purple) in standard deviations from the 1991–2020 mean. Each gray line is one prior year, 1982–2025.
How to read this: one column per year since 1950, one row per calendar month (Jan–Dec, top to bottom). A cell lights up when that month hit at least +1.5°C. Most of the grid is blank — only real El Niño events light up, and which rows light up shows which months.
ⓘ methodology & sources
CPC weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (wksst9120.for, OISSTv2, 1991–2020 baseline). Weekly cadence gives ~1-week lag vs ~6-week lag for monthly ERSST. Data rail (phase label, percentile, baseline drift) computed from the monthly ERSST series — ENSO phase is a monthly-to-seasonal signal and the dual-baseline thesis requires the 1971–2000 period not available in the weekly file.
SOURCE · CPC · wksst9120.for
The Temperature Ratchet CURRENT
NASA GISTEMP · through 2026-08
+1.44°C
12-month mean · vs pre-industrial
LATEST MONTH
+1.63°C
August 2026
CURRENT FLOOR · 2023–24
+1.50°C
2023–24
FLOOR STEP-UP
+0.32°C
above prior floor
RATE OF RISE
+0.30°C / decade
 
MONTHS ≥1.5°C BY YEAR · 14 since Sep 2023, 2 in the decade before
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016: +1.58°C 2016: +1.60°C 2020 2023: +1.58°C 2023: +1.59°C 2023: +1.63°C 2023: +1.71°C 2024: +1.53°C 2024: +1.53°C 2024: +1.55°C 2024: +1.58°C 2024: +1.63°C 2024: +1.67°C 2025: +1.60°C 2025: +1.61°C 2025 2026: +1.55°C 2026: +1.63°C
+0.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FORECAST → 1997–98 2009–10 2015–16 2023–24 Paris 1.5°C 2.0°C
Floor = 12-month mean starting 6 months after ONI peak · verified from NASA GISTEMP
Statistical projection (trend + ENSO regression), not an official forecast: ENSO-adjusted trend fit, 3-month lag, R²=0.80 vs 380 months of history; Nino 3.4 path from the live CFSv2 ensemble.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Floor = 12-month mean starting 6 months after ONI peak · verified from NASA GISTEMP
Source: NASA GISTEMP GLB.Ts+dSST · pre-industrial baseline 1880–1899
FORECAST ZONE METHODOLOGY — a monthly-resolution ENSO adjustment of the GISTEMP trend itself, the same technique used in published climate literature to separate short-term ENSO variability from the secular warming trend (see Foster & Rahmstorf, 'Global temperature evolution 1979–2010', Environ. Res. Lett. 2011, for the canonical version of this method).
Model: GISTEMP_anomaly(t) = intercept + trend·t + β·Niño3.4(t − lag). Fit by ordinary least squares against NASA GISTEMP's full monthly series (1995–present, ~380 points) and NOAA's ERSST-based Niño 3.4 monthly index. The lag (months between an ENSO reading and its effect on global mean temperature) is not assumed — it's chosen live by testing every lag from 0–12 months and keeping whichever gives the best fit (highest R²).
Forecast values project that fitted trend forward, plus β times NOAA CFSv2's live 80-member Niño 3.4 ensemble forecast at the same lag. Months close to 'now' use CFSv2's own recent observed SST (little uncertainty); months further out use the ensemble's actual forecast spread. The shaded band combines that ENSO-forecast uncertainty with the regression's own residual scatter, so it doesn't understate near-term noise.
This is a statistically-derived projection built from live public data (NASA GISTEMP + NOAA ERSST/CFSv2), not an official forecast product from any single agency — the fit (lag, R², and trend) recomputes on every refresh as new months of data arrive, so it updates itself rather than going stale like the two retired citations did.
El Niño shading (background bands on the chart) marks moderate-or-stronger months (Niño 3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) from the same live NOAA ERSST series — El Niño only, not La Niña, since this card's subject is specifically El Niño-driven floors.
Tropics · ENSO context · 30°S to 30°N
NOAA CRW CURRENT
2026-09-25 · Updated 14h ago
Tropics · ENSO context
The Pacific equatorial band — the El Niño signature is visible as a tongue of warmth along the equator. Pair with Panel 02 (ENSO).
SOURCE · crw_sst_anomaly_tropics
Southern Oscillation Index · Walker Circulation · 2026 against the 1951–2025 envelope · NOAA CPC monthly
NOAA CPC CURRENT
2026-08-01 · 56d old
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Historical mean 1997 2015 2023 2026 Historical range 1951–2025 (75 yrs), 5th–95th pct
How to read this: 2026 (purple) against every year 1951–2025. Negative = Walker Circulation weakening (El Niño conditions). 1997, 2015, and 2023 El Niño years shown for comparison. The deeper below zero 2026 runs, the stronger the atmospheric coupling.
Walker Circulation Coupling
El Niño Coupled
Niño 3.4 +2.1°C · SOI -1.1
Percentile Rank · Last 3 Months
Aug 8th ← Jul 1st ← Jun 3rd
El Niño is not just a warm pool. It requires the Walker Circulation to break down and the atmosphere to actively amplify the anomaly. Persistent negative SOI is that confirmation.
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA CPC standardized monthly SOI (Tahiti minus Darwin sea-level pressure anomaly, standardized). Negative SOI confirms the atmospheric half of El Niño: weakened trade winds, suppressed Walker Circulation, reinforcing warm SST anomaly. Pairs with Niño 3.4 — both must be persistently negative for confirmed ocean-atmosphere coupling.
SOURCE · cpc_soi_monthly