Climate Signal

2026 Trajectory / Climate Observability Platform / No Conditionals
2026-09-26 · 05:00 UTC
44 OF 53 SOURCES CURRENT · 9 STALE
9 STALE

The air we breathe

CO₂ at concentrations not seen in 3–5 million years.
The atmosphere is the ledger.

Earth Energy Imbalance · CERES EBAF-TOA CURRENT
No hedging is possible here. This is a measurement, not a model.
The long-term trend is near the top of the 25-year satellite record.
Latest observation: 2026-06-15
103d old · fetched 2026-09-26
EEI Trend · 12-mo running mean
1.999 W/m²
12-month running mean
CURRENT POSITION IN RECORD
97th percentile · 25-year satellite record
8 consecutive months ≥ 1.5 W/m²
≈ 16.2 Hiroshima bombs / sec
of excess energy absorbed
1019.5 TW
absorbed · 12-month running mean
Satellite record peak
2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023
-0.09 0.60 1.29 1.98 2.67 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 POST-2020 · IMO LOW-SULPHUR ERA 2015 · ACCELERATION PHASE BEGINS PEAK 2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023 EL NIÑO AMPLIFICATION 1.999 W/m² Jun 2026 — —
ⓘ Positive values indicate energy gain by Earth.
ⓘ methodology & sources
12-month running mean of global-mean top-of-atmosphere net flux (toa_net_all_mon) — the rate the planet is accumulating heat, ~90% of it into the oceans. The trend is the signal: the 12-mo mean has risen roughly +0.4 W/m² per decade since 2001, the trend line nearly tripling across the record — but the line is noisy and NOT monotonic (it swings year to year, and the single-month-window record high was mid-2023, above the current value). NOTE: EBAF's absolute level is constrained to in-situ ocean heat content (Loeb et al.); the satellite fixes the TREND well but not the absolute magnitude independently — which is why the climb, not the height, is the honest reading. The Hiroshima framing is an editorial transform of the W/m² value, computed live.
SOURCE · ceres_ebaf_eei
Daily Global Surface Temperature · ERA5
CURRENT
ERA5 reanalysis · through 2026-09-23
2026 vs 1940–2025 Envelope
16.10°C
Global AVG
+1.50°C
2026 Anomaly
35/267
calendar-day records in 2026
267/267
days above 1991–2020 daily mean
#2 / 87
today's rank among all years
191/267
days hotter than 2023
17.0°C
August 2026 avg — hottest August on record (87 yrs)
10 12 14 16 18 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Hover the chart to compare years
Range 1940–2025 Mean 1940 1998 2016 2023 2024 2026
ⓘ methodology & sources
Cos-latitude-weighted global mean 2m air temperature from ERA5 reanalysis, published directly by ECMWF/C3S via Climate Pulse. ~2-3 day publication lag is intrinsic to the product, not staleness (most recent day is typically PRELIMINARY, settling to FINAL a few days later). The absolute annual peak is a Northern-Hemisphere-summer (July) value — ~17.15 °C in 2024, the warmest day in the record. The headline above tracks a different, honest superlative: the warmest reading on record for its specific calendar date, which 2026 has been setting through spring — weeks before that summer peak.
SOURCE · era5_daily_global_t
Atmospheric CO₂ · Mauna Loa CURRENT
Latest observation: 2026-09-22
4d old · fetched 2026-09-26
Keeling Curve · 1958–present
Pre-industrial baseline 280 ppm (1750)
425.8ppm
to CO₂ doubling
134.2 ppm remaining · 560 ppm target
year high (vs. current reading, above)
432.34 ppm
May 15, 2026 · seasonal cycle: CO₂ falls each NH summer
rate of rise
+2.23 ppm/yr
NOAA annual mean growth rate
above pre-industrial
+52.1%
300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 year high
Last seen at this level ~4 million years ago · Pliocene epoch
ⓘ methodology & sources
The breath of the planet: CO₂ falls each Northern-Hemisphere summer as plants take up carbon, then rises through winter. The full Keeling Curve — unbroken since 1958 — shows the relentless upward trend and the accelerating pace of rise.
SOURCE · noaa_co2_daily
Global Precipitable Water CURRENT
Latest observation: 2026-08-15
42d old · fetched 2026-09-26
Global atmospheric moisture · 36-mo running mean, 1943–2026
Every +1°C, atmospheric moisture rises ~7%.More water vapor intensifies rainfall and drought extremes.
View
Region
27.352 kg/m²
August vs 1950–1980 baseline +7.6%
August baseline mean 25.419 kg/m²
all-time record for August #1 of 87 years
24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 27 27.5 1960 1980 2000 2020 EL NIÑO 2023 — —
ⓘ methodology & sources
36-month running average of total-column precipitable water (water vapour), global mean. Atmospheric moisture rises ~7% per °C of warming (Clausius-Clapeyron), and the trend is upward — more water vapor means more intense precipitation, compounding flood and drought extremes. Per v2 exec summary Sec 1, which highlights the 30°N–60°N mid-latitude band (where over half the world's population lives); that exact band isn't available as a stable automated series, so this shows the global mean. Source: ERA5 total column water vapour (Copernicus C3S, 1940–present), area-weighted to a cos-latitude global mean via the CDS API.
SOURCE · era5_pwat
Global Mean Temperature · 146-Year Record CURRENT
Annual mean: 2025-12-01
299d old · fetched 2026-09-26
Annual mean · °C above pre-industrial (1880–1900 reference)
1.423°C above pre-industrial
Three independent methods agree within 0.13°C
0 0.5 1 1.5 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
ⓘ methodology & sources
Hero value: NASA GISTEMP annual mean for the latest complete year, rebased from the 1951–1980 baseline to a pre-industrial reference (1880–1899 mean = 0). The +0.29°C offset is computed live from the GISTEMP CSV — not hardcoded — so it tracks any future reprocessing. NOAA GlobalTemp and Berkeley Earth place current warming within 0.06°C of GISTEMP. The dashed line marks the Paris Agreement 1.5°C threshold (defined on the same pre-industrial reference). All three methods use independent station compilations and infilling; their convergence confirms the signal is real, not an artifact of method choice.
SOURCE · gistemp_preindustrial
Aerosol masking trap STRUCTURAL
CURRENT
GISTEMP · 2025

Aerosol masking trap

Fossil fuel combustion masks 0.5–1.5°C of warming via SO₂ aerosols.

Rapid decarbonization removes masking within weeks; CO₂ persists centuries.

No emissions pathway avoids the asymmetry between aerosol lifetime and CO₂ persistence.

Masking range
0.5–1.5°C
Removal timescale
WEEKS–MONTHS
CO₂ persistence
CENTURIES
Human control
CONSTRAINED
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch. 7 (aerosol ERF −1.06 W/m², 90% range −1.84 to −0.46); Samset et al. 2018 (aerosol removal timescale). Observed warming: NASA GISTEMP v4 annual anomaly (1880–1899 baseline). Aerosol cooling from IPCC AR6 best estimate. Total = observed + |aerosol forcing|.
Atmospheric Methane · Global Mean
FOSSIL FUEL OPERATIONS, LIVESTOCK, AND WETLANDS
THE NEAR-TERM LEVER
STALE
Latest (~4 month lag)
through 2026-05-01
1,939 ppb
↑ 6.3 ppb/yr
CURRENT RATE · 2025–26
Pre-industrial 722 ppb
Atmospheric lifetime ~12 yrs
Atmospheric concentration (ppb)
1700 1800 1900 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Annual growth rate (ppb / yr)
0 5 10 15 20 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
1999–2006 AVG
~1.2 ppb/yr
STABILIZATION
→
×8
2014–PRESENT AVG
~9.6 ppb/yr
RE-ACCELERATION
The cause remains scientifically contested — fossil fuel leaks, tropical wetland expansion, and shifting OH sink capacity are all implicated. No single driver has achieved consensus.
HUMAN CONTROL
DIRECT
CAUSE OF RE-ACCELERATION
CONTESTED
80-YR WARMING POTENTIAL
80× CO₂
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial CH₄ ≈ 722 ppb (ice-core consensus). Current levels represent a 2.6–2.7× increase. CH₄ has a ~12-year atmospheric lifetime but an 80-year warming potential 80× that of CO₂ — near-term reductions have an outsized effect on near-term warming. Annual growth rate computed as December minus January monthly mean for each complete year. Growth rate eras: stabilization 1999–2006 (near-zero net growth); re-acceleration 2014–present (cause contested — fossil fuel leaks, tropical wetland expansion, and shifting OH sink capacity all implicated). Ice core toggle: EPICA Dome C composite (Loulergue et al. 2008, NOAA/NCEI Paleoclimatology), spliced with this same NOAA GML record where the ice core itself stops (~1937).
Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide · Global Mean CURRENT
Latest monthly mean (~3–4-month lag): 2026-05-01
148d old · fetched 2026-09-26
Monthly global mean N₂O (ppb) · NOAA GML
339.82
ppb 1.26× pre-industrial
273× the warming potential of CO₂, and it lingers for over a century
The third greenhouse gas — mostly from fertilizer and the soils we farm.
313.3 323.1 332.9 342.7 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Pre-industrial
270 ppb
Current
339.82
ppb
Atmospheric lifetime
~115 yrs
Human control
CONSTRAINED
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ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial N₂O ≈ 270 ppb (ice-core consensus). Synthetic nitrogen agriculture is the dominant source; the ~115-year atmospheric lifetime means every tonne emitted today is still warming in 2141. Unlike CH₄ reductions, N₂O mitigation offers no near-term shortcut — persistence is the story. The curve is nearly linear: no plateaus, no policy inflections, no visible ceiling.
SOURCE · noaa_n2o_global