The air we breathe
CO₂ at concentrations not seen in 3–5 million years.
The atmosphere is the ledger.
Earth Energy Imbalance · CERES EBAF-TOA
CURRENT
No hedging is possible here. This is a measurement, not a model.
The long-term trend is near the top of the 25-year satellite record.
The long-term trend is near the top of the 25-year satellite record.
Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)
1.999 W/m²
12-month running mean
CURRENT POSITION IN RECORD
97th percentile · 25-year satellite record
8 consecutive months ≥ 1.5 W/m²
≈ 16.2 Hiroshima bombs / sec
of excess energy absorbed
1019.5 TW
absorbed · 12-month running mean
Satellite record peak
2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023
ⓘ Positive values indicate energy gain by Earth.
Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)
1.052 W/m²
12-month running mean
CURRENT POSITION IN RECORD
94th percentile · 25-year satellite record
≈ 4.3 Hiroshima bombs / sec
of excess energy absorbed by hemisphere
268.3 TW
absorbed · 12-month running mean
Satellite record peak
2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023
ⓘ Positive values indicate energy gain by Earth.
Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)
2.946 W/m²
12-month running mean
CURRENT POSITION IN RECORD
98th percentile · 25-year satellite record
22 consecutive months ≥ 1.5 W/m²
≈ 11.9 Hiroshima bombs / sec
of excess energy absorbed by hemisphere
751.2 TW
absorbed · 12-month running mean
Satellite record peak
2.219 W/m² · Jul 2023
ⓘ Positive values indicate energy gain by Earth.
ⓘ methodology & sources
12-month running mean of global-mean top-of-atmosphere net flux (toa_net_all_mon) — the rate the planet is accumulating heat, ~90% of it into the oceans. The trend is the signal: the 12-mo mean has risen roughly +0.4 W/m² per decade since 2001, the trend line nearly tripling across the record — but the line is noisy and NOT monotonic (it swings year to year, and the single-month-window record high was mid-2023, above the current value). NOTE: EBAF's absolute level is constrained to in-situ ocean heat content (Loeb et al.); the satellite fixes the TREND well but not the absolute magnitude independently — which is why the climb, not the height, is the honest reading. The Hiroshima framing is an editorial transform of the W/m² value, computed live.
SOURCE · ceres_ebaf_eei
Daily Global Surface Temperature
· ERA5
CURRENT
16.10°C
Global AVG
+1.50°C
2026 Anomaly
35/267
calendar-day records in 2026
267/267
days above 1991–2020 daily mean
#2 / 87
today's rank among all years
191/267
days hotter than 2023
17.0°C
August 2026 avg — hottest August on record (87 yrs)
ⓘ methodology & sources
Cos-latitude-weighted global mean 2m air temperature from ERA5 reanalysis, published directly by ECMWF/C3S via Climate Pulse. ~2-3 day publication lag is intrinsic to the product, not staleness (most recent day is typically PRELIMINARY, settling to FINAL a few days later). The absolute annual peak is a Northern-Hemisphere-summer (July) value — ~17.15 °C in 2024, the warmest day in the record. The headline above tracks a different, honest superlative: the warmest reading on record for its specific calendar date, which 2026 has been setting through spring — weeks before that summer peak.
SOURCE · era5_daily_global_t
Atmospheric CO₂ · Mauna Loa
CURRENT
Pre-industrial baseline 280 ppm (1750)
425.8ppm
to CO₂ doubling
134.2 ppm remaining · 560 ppm target
year high (vs. current reading, above)
432.34 ppm
May 15, 2026 · seasonal cycle: CO₂ falls each NH summer
rate of rise
+2.23 ppm/yr
NOAA annual mean growth rate
above pre-industrial
+52.1%
Last seen at this level ~4 million years ago · Pliocene epoch
ⓘ methodology & sources
The breath of the planet: CO₂ falls each Northern-Hemisphere summer as plants take up carbon, then rises through winter. The full Keeling Curve — unbroken since 1958 — shows the relentless upward trend and the accelerating pace of rise.
SOURCE · noaa_co2_daily
Global Precipitable Water
CURRENT
Every +1°C, atmospheric moisture rises ~7%.More water vapor intensifies rainfall and drought extremes.
View
Region
27.352 kg/m²
August vs 1950–1980 baseline
+7.6%
August baseline mean
25.419 kg/m²
all-time record for August
#1 of 87 years
35.474 kg/m²
August vs 1950–1980 baseline
+8.7%
August baseline mean
32.645 kg/m²
August rank
#2 of 87 years
19.529 kg/m²
August vs 1950–1980 baseline
+5.7%
August baseline mean
18.469 kg/m²
all-time record for August
#1 of 87 years
25.258 kg/m²
vs 1950–1980 baseline
+6.4%
baseline mean
23.7331 kg/m²
all-time record
25.2576 · 2026-08
N. mid-latitudes (30–60°N)
17.2142 kg/m²
vs 1950–1980 baseline
+9.6%
26.7457 kg/m²
vs 1950–1980 baseline
+7.3%
baseline mean
24.9252 kg/m²
all-time record
26.7457 · 2026-08
24.1365 kg/m²
vs 1950–1980 baseline
+5.4%
baseline mean
22.8988 kg/m²
all-time record
24.1365 · 2026-08
ⓘ methodology & sources
36-month running average of total-column precipitable water (water vapour), global mean. Atmospheric moisture rises ~7% per °C of warming (Clausius-Clapeyron), and the trend is upward — more water vapor means more intense precipitation, compounding flood and drought extremes. Per v2 exec summary Sec 1, which highlights the 30°N–60°N mid-latitude band (where over half the world's population lives); that exact band isn't available as a stable automated series, so this shows the global mean. Source: ERA5 total column water vapour (Copernicus C3S, 1940–present), area-weighted to a cos-latitude global mean via the CDS API.
SOURCE · era5_pwat
Global Mean Temperature · 146-Year Record
CURRENT
1.423°C above pre-industrial
Three independent methods agree within 0.13°C
ⓘ methodology & sources
Hero value: NASA GISTEMP annual mean for the latest complete year, rebased from the 1951–1980 baseline to a pre-industrial reference (1880–1899 mean = 0). The +0.29°C offset is computed live from the GISTEMP CSV — not hardcoded — so it tracks any future reprocessing. NOAA GlobalTemp and Berkeley Earth place current warming within 0.06°C of GISTEMP. The dashed line marks the Paris Agreement 1.5°C threshold (defined on the same pre-industrial reference). All three methods use independent station compilations and infilling; their convergence confirms the signal is real, not an artifact of method choice.
SOURCE · gistemp_preindustrial
Aerosol masking trap
STRUCTURAL
Aerosol masking trap
Fossil fuel combustion masks 0.5–1.5°C of warming via SO₂ aerosols.
Rapid decarbonization removes masking within weeks; CO₂ persists centuries.
No emissions pathway avoids the asymmetry between aerosol lifetime and CO₂ persistence.
Masking range
0.5–1.5°C
Removal timescale
WEEKS–MONTHS
CO₂ persistence
CENTURIES
Human control
CONSTRAINED
ⓘ methodology & sources
Sources: IPCC AR6 WGI Ch. 7 (aerosol ERF −1.06 W/m², 90% range −1.84 to −0.46); Samset et al. 2018 (aerosol removal timescale). Observed warming: NASA GISTEMP v4 annual anomaly (1880–1899 baseline). Aerosol cooling from IPCC AR6 best estimate. Total = observed + |aerosol forcing|.
1,939 ppb
↑ 6.3 ppb/yr
CURRENT RATE · 2025–26
Pre-industrial
722 ppb
Atmospheric lifetime
~12 yrs
Atmospheric concentration (ppb)
Annual growth rate (ppb / yr)
1999–2006 AVG
~1.2 ppb/yr
STABILIZATION
→
×8
2014–PRESENT AVG
~9.6 ppb/yr
RE-ACCELERATION
The cause remains scientifically contested — fossil fuel leaks, tropical wetland expansion, and shifting OH sink capacity are all implicated. No single driver has achieved consensus.
HUMAN CONTROL
DIRECT
CAUSE OF RE-ACCELERATION
CONTESTED
80-YR WARMING POTENTIAL
80× CO₂
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial CH₄ ≈ 722 ppb (ice-core consensus). Current levels represent a 2.6–2.7× increase. CH₄ has a ~12-year atmospheric lifetime but an 80-year warming potential 80× that of CO₂ — near-term reductions have an outsized effect on near-term warming. Annual growth rate computed as December minus January monthly mean for each complete year. Growth rate eras: stabilization 1999–2006 (near-zero net growth); re-acceleration 2014–present (cause contested — fossil fuel leaks, tropical wetland expansion, and shifting OH sink capacity all implicated). Ice core toggle: EPICA Dome C composite (Loulergue et al. 2008, NOAA/NCEI Paleoclimatology), spliced with this same NOAA GML record where the ice core itself stops (~1937).
Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide · Global Mean
CURRENT
339.82
ppb 1.26× pre-industrial
273× the warming potential of CO₂, and it lingers for over a century
The third greenhouse gas — mostly from fertilizer and the soils we farm.
Pre-industrial
270 ppb
Current
339.82
ppb
Atmospheric lifetime
~115 yrs
Human control
CONSTRAINED
ⓘ methodology & sources
NOAA GML global marine surface network. Pre-industrial N₂O ≈ 270 ppb (ice-core consensus). Synthetic nitrogen agriculture is the dominant source; the ~115-year atmospheric lifetime means every tonne emitted today is still warming in 2141. Unlike CH₄ reductions, N₂O mitigation offers no near-term shortcut — persistence is the story. The curve is nearly linear: no plateaus, no policy inflections, no visible ceiling.
SOURCE · noaa_n2o_global