The American West
Snow that doesn't fall, water that isn't stored, and the fire that follows.
One drying system, read three ways.
Snow · Fire · Drought — the American West drying system
Western Drought · Severity & Water Year Deficit
PDSI: Southwest U.S. (AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT) · Water Year: West of the Mississippi (17 states)
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX
-9.51
Extreme Drought
1st most negative of 1580 months since 1895
≤−4 Extreme
≤−3 Severe
≤−2 Moderate
0 Normal
PDSI = Palmer Drought Severity Index · 0 = normal · negative = drought · Southwest U.S. region
WATER YEAR DEFICIT · WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
-2.95"
cumulative precip departure · WY2026
Oct 2025 – present
45.27%
USDM · D2 (severe) or worse
week of 2026-09-22
WY2021
WY2022
WY2023
WY2024
WY2025
WY2026
USDM D2+ % (right axis)
Water year Oct 1–Sep 30 · area-weighted precipitation departure from 1991–2020 normals, 17 states west of the Mississippi (excludes river-straddling MN/IA/MO/AR/LA) · dashed line = USDM % of that footprint in D2 (severe) or worse drought, current water year
Snowpack · Upper Colorado Basin SWE
CURRENT
#1
of 46 years
Driest on record · 1981–present
PEAK SWE · 2026
9.24"
March 8
MEDIAN PEAK
17.77"
1981–2025
% OF MEDIAN
52%
of historical median
PRIOR RECORD
11.03"
2002
DEFICIT VS RECORD
-1.79"
below prior record
MELT-OUT · 2026
June 5
17d earlier than median
Historical range 1981–2025
Historical mean
2002 (prior record)
2012
2018
2023 (exceptional year)
2026 ★
2026 (purple) against every year 1981–2025. Band is the full
historical min–max per calendar day; dashed line is the historical mean. 2023 (red)
was an exceptional snow year — its contrast with 2026 illustrates the basin's full
drought range. During June–October, SWE drops to near-zero as melt-out completes —
trace readings are expected seasonal behavior.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Daily basin mean snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Colorado watershed (HUC-14), computed from USDA NRCS SNOTEL stations. Filtered by HUC prefix 14, not state: 'CO:SNTL' includes stations in the Arkansas drainage that would contaminate the basin mean. 2026 peaked at 9.24" on March 7 — driest on record (1 of 46 years), 52% of the 17.77" historical median and 1.79" below the prior record set in 2002 (11.03"). Melt-out was the earliest on record. Percentile is Claude-computed from raw per-station data.
SOURCE · awdb_snowpack_upper_colorado
Wildfire · Acres Burned
CURRENT
8,559,888
acres YTD
≈147% of the 10-year average as of September 21st 2026
2026 leads all years in the comparison window
2026 leads all years in the comparison window
1,697,636
FIRMS detections · contiguous US · YTD 2026-09-24
¹ SNPP only ² SNPP + NOAA-20 ³ + NOAA-21 (2026-07-16+)
Good 374
· Moderate 121
· USG 8
· Unhealthy 2
505 western US stations · PM2.5 · (cached 2026-08-17)
26
large fires active
1
new today
6,824
personnel assigned
PL 2
preparedness level
elevated activity
(as of 2026-09-22)
57,087
wildfires year-to-date
WA
most unhealthy+ stations · 1
unhealthy+ stations · 30d
82
ⓘ methodology & sources
National year-to-date acres burned, from the NIFC statistics page (updated ~daily; upstream of record is the weekly IMSR). The hero is NIFC's own reconciled national total, not a sum reconstructed from incident records. The comparison bars show year-to-date acres for 2016–2026; the dashed rule is the 2016–2025 ten-year average (1,172,748 acres), pinned as a constant until the rolling window advances in Jan 2027. Heat is keyed to value: the current year is full alarm at roughly twice the decade average. The baseline itself is climbing, which the bars show rather than hide. The FIRMS calendar (right column) is a separate variable — daily VIIRS satellite fire detections across the contiguous US, not acres — shown alongside for a same-region, different-instrument view.
SOURCE · nifc_fire_ytd
Water · the Colorado reservoir system — % of capacity computed from storage volume, not elevation
Lake Powell
Capacity
21.9% full
Available Water
5.14 maf
≈ 1.7T gallons
Surface Elevation
3517.77 ft
Min power pool
+27.77 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
21.9% = 5.14 maf storage ÷
23.42 maf live capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present.
Min power pool (3490 ft)
+27.77 ft
Dead pool (3370 ft)
+147.77 ft
Glen Canyon Dam. The downstream giant the entire upper system is being drained to prop up. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 919
Lake Mead
Capacity
26.2% full
Available Water
6.84 maf
≈ 2.2T gallons
Surface Elevation
1038.01 ft
Min power pool
+88.01 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
26.2% = 6.84 maf storage ÷
26.12 maf available capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present. (Basis: documented
available capacity, not back-solved live capacity — see source notes.)
Min power pool (950 ft)
+88.01 ft
Dead pool (895 ft)
+143.01 ft
Hoover Dam. Largest reservoir in the US by capacity; reduced Powell releases accelerate its decline. Capacity on documented available-capacity basis (26.12 maf).
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 921
Flaming Gorge
Capacity
68.3% full
Available Water
2.51 maf
≈ 0.8T gallons
Surface Elevation
6007.77 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
68.3% = 2.51 maf storage ÷
3.68 maf live capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the Green River. 660kaf-1maf being released through Apr 2027 to prop up Powell, drawing it toward ~59%.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 917
Navajo
Capacity
47.7% full
Available Water
0.79 maf
≈ 0.3T gallons
Surface Elevation
6010.95 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
47.7% = 0.79 maf storage ÷
1.65 maf live capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the San Juan. No additional releases planned due to low levels and poor inflow forecasts.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 920
Blue Mesa
Capacity
19.3% full
Available Water
0.14 maf
≈ 0.0T gallons
Surface Elevation
7413.27 ft
Min power pool
+53.27 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
19.3% = 0.14 maf storage ÷
0.75 maf live capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present.
Min power pool (7360 ft)
+53.27 ft
Dead pool (7220 ft)
+193.27 ft
Gunnison River, part of the Aspinall Unit — one of the four CRSP Initial Units built alongside Powell, Flaming Gorge, and Navajo. Its releases have been used to prop up Powell during the current drought.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 913
Lake Havasu
Capacity
80.5% full
Available Water
0.52 maf
≈ 0.2T gallons
Surface Elevation
447.42 ft
Min power pool
+7.42 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
80.5% = 0.52 maf storage ÷
0.65 maf total capacity.
Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation —
reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate
how much water is present. (Basis: documented
available capacity, not back-solved live capacity — see source notes.)
Min power pool (440 ft)
+7.42 ft
Dead pool (400 ft)
+47.42 ft
Parker Dam, downstream of Hoover and Davis — the diversion point for the Central Arizona Project and Metropolitan Water District canals. Capacity on documented total-capacity basis (646.2 kaf; no separately published live/active split).
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 923