Climate Signal

2026 Trajectory / Climate Observability Platform / No Conditionals
2026-09-26 · 03:00 UTC
44 OF 53 SOURCES CURRENT · 9 STALE
9 STALE

The American West

Snow that doesn't fall, water that isn't stored, and the fire that follows.
One drying system, read three ways.

Snow · Fire · Drought — the American West drying system
Western Drought · Severity & Water Year Deficit
CURRENT
PDSI thru 2026-08
Precip thru 2026-08
PDSI: Southwest U.S. (AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT) · Water Year: West of the Mississippi (17 states)
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX
-9.51
Extreme Drought
1st most negative of 1580 months since 1895
≤−4 Extreme
≤−3 Severe
≤−2 Moderate
 0 Normal
DustBowl 1950sDrought 2000sDrought Current -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 1895 1939 1982 2026
PDSI = Palmer Drought Severity Index · 0 = normal · negative = drought · Southwest U.S. region
WATER YEAR DEFICIT · WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
-2.95"
cumulative precip departure · WY2026
Oct 2025 – present
45.27%
USDM · D2 (severe) or worse
week of 2026-09-22
DEFICIT SURPLUS -4" -2" 0" 2" O N D J F M A M J J A S 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
WY2021 WY2022 WY2023 WY2024 WY2025 WY2026 USDM D2+ % (right axis)
Water year Oct 1–Sep 30 · area-weighted precipitation departure from 1991–2020 normals, 17 states west of the Mississippi (excludes river-straddling MN/IA/MO/AR/LA) · dashed line = USDM % of that footprint in D2 (severe) or worse drought, current water year
Snowpack · Upper Colorado Basin SWE CURRENT Data through 2026-09-24
#1 of 46 years
Driest on record · 1981–present
PEAK SWE · 2026
9.24"
March 8
MEDIAN PEAK
17.77"
1981–2025
% OF MEDIAN
52%
of historical median
PRIOR RECORD
11.03"
2002
DEFICIT VS RECORD
-1.79"
below prior record
MELT-OUT · 2026
June 5
17d earlier than median
0" 10" 20" 30" Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Historical range 1981–2025 Historical mean 2002 (prior record) 2012 2018 2023 (exceptional year) 2026 ★
2026 (purple) against every year 1981–2025. Band is the full historical min–max per calendar day; dashed line is the historical mean. 2023 (red) was an exceptional snow year — its contrast with 2026 illustrates the basin's full drought range. During June–October, SWE drops to near-zero as melt-out completes — trace readings are expected seasonal behavior.
ⓘ methodology & sources
Daily basin mean snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Colorado watershed (HUC-14), computed from USDA NRCS SNOTEL stations. Filtered by HUC prefix 14, not state: 'CO:SNTL' includes stations in the Arkansas drainage that would contaminate the basin mean. 2026 peaked at 9.24" on March 7 — driest on record (1 of 46 years), 52% of the 17.77" historical median and 1.79" below the prior record set in 2002 (11.03"). Melt-out was the earliest on record. Percentile is Claude-computed from raw per-station data.
SOURCE · awdb_snowpack_upper_colorado
Wildfire · Acres Burned CURRENT
8,559,888
acres YTD
≈147% of the 10-year average as of September 21st 2026
2026 leads all years in the comparison window
0.0M 0.5M 1.0M 1.5M 2.0M 2.5M 3.0M 3.5M 4.0M 4.5M 5.0M 5.5M 6.0M 6.5M 7.0M 7.5M 8.0M 8.5M 9.0M 2016: 4,843,157 acres 2017: 8,541,544 acres 2018: 7,327,449 acres 2019: 4,347,128 acres 2020: 6,982,242 acres 2021: 5,700,268 acres 2022: 6,815,741 acres 2023: 2,332,108 acres 2024: 7,332,000 acres 2025: 4,448,865 acres 2026: 8,559,888 acres (current, hero) 10-yr avg · 5.84M 2016 8.54M 2018 2020 2022 7.33M 2024 8.56M 2026
2016–2026 · acres burned, year-to-date IMSR archive same-week comparison; as of 2026-09-21
1,697,636
FIRMS detections · contiguous US · YTD 2026-09-24
¹ SNPP only    ² SNPP + NOAA-20    ³ + NOAA-21 (2026-07-16+)
156 Leavenworth-Evans St, WA 0 150 500
Good 374 · Moderate 121 · USG 8 · Unhealthy 2
505 western US stations · PM2.5 · (cached 2026-08-17)
26
large fires active
1
new today
6,824
personnel assigned
PL 2
preparedness level
elevated activity
(as of 2026-09-22)
57,087
wildfires year-to-date
WA
most unhealthy+ stations · 1
unhealthy+ stations · 30d
82
ⓘ methodology & sources
National year-to-date acres burned, from the NIFC statistics page (updated ~daily; upstream of record is the weekly IMSR). The hero is NIFC's own reconciled national total, not a sum reconstructed from incident records. The comparison bars show year-to-date acres for 2016–2026; the dashed rule is the 2016–2025 ten-year average (1,172,748 acres), pinned as a constant until the rolling window advances in Jan 2027. Heat is keyed to value: the current year is full alarm at roughly twice the decade average. The baseline itself is climbing, which the bars show rather than hide. The FIRMS calendar (right column) is a separate variable — daily VIIRS satellite fire detections across the contiguous US, not acres — shown alongside for a same-region, different-instrument view.
SOURCE · nifc_fire_ytd
Water · the Colorado reservoir system — % of capacity computed from storage volume, not elevation
Lake Powell
CURRENT
2026-09-24 · 2d old
Capacity
21.9% full
Available Water
5.14 maf
≈ 1.7T gallons
Surface Elevation
3517.77 ft
Min power pool
+27.77 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
21.9% = 5.14 maf storage ÷ 23.42 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Min power pool (3490 ft) +27.77 ft
Dead pool (3370 ft) +147.77 ft
Glen Canyon Dam. The downstream giant the entire upper system is being drained to prop up. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 919
Lake Mead
CURRENT
2026-09-24 · 2d old
Capacity
26.2% full
Available Water
6.84 maf
≈ 2.2T gallons
Surface Elevation
1038.01 ft
Min power pool
+88.01 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
26.2% = 6.84 maf storage ÷ 26.12 maf available capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present. (Basis: documented available capacity, not back-solved live capacity — see source notes.)
Min power pool (950 ft) +88.01 ft
Dead pool (895 ft) +143.01 ft
Hoover Dam. Largest reservoir in the US by capacity; reduced Powell releases accelerate its decline. Capacity on documented available-capacity basis (26.12 maf).
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 921
Flaming Gorge
CURRENT
2026-09-24 · 2d old
Capacity
68.3% full
Available Water
2.51 maf
≈ 0.8T gallons
Surface Elevation
6007.77 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
68.3% = 2.51 maf storage ÷ 3.68 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the Green River. 660kaf-1maf being released through Apr 2027 to prop up Powell, drawing it toward ~59%.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 917
Navajo
CURRENT
2026-09-24 · 2d old
Capacity
47.7% full
Available Water
0.79 maf
≈ 0.3T gallons
Surface Elevation
6010.95 ft
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
47.7% = 0.79 maf storage ÷ 1.65 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Upstream reserve on the San Juan. No additional releases planned due to low levels and poor inflow forecasts.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 920
Blue Mesa
CURRENT
2026-09-24 · 2d old
Capacity
19.3% full
Available Water
0.14 maf
≈ 0.0T gallons
Surface Elevation
7413.27 ft
Min power pool
+53.27 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
19.3% = 0.14 maf storage ÷ 0.75 maf live capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present.
Min power pool (7360 ft) +53.27 ft
Dead pool (7220 ft) +193.27 ft
Gunnison River, part of the Aspinall Unit — one of the four CRSP Initial Units built alongside Powell, Flaming Gorge, and Navajo. Its releases have been used to prop up Powell during the current drought.
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 913
Lake Havasu
CURRENT
2026-09-24 · 2d old
Capacity
80.5% full
Available Water
0.52 maf
≈ 0.2T gallons
Surface Elevation
447.42 ft
Min power pool
+7.42 ft
above min power pool
ⓘ methodology & sources
Latest observation: 2026-09-24 · 2d old · fetched 2026-09-26 · NGVD 1929
80.5% = 0.52 maf storage ÷ 0.65 maf total capacity. Capacity is computed from storage volume (USBR datatype 17), not elevation — reservoir hypsometry is nonlinear, so a percent-by-elevation would overstate how much water is present. (Basis: documented available capacity, not back-solved live capacity — see source notes.)
Min power pool (440 ft) +7.42 ft
Dead pool (400 ft) +47.42 ft
Parker Dam, downstream of Hoover and Davis — the diversion point for the Central Arizona Project and Metropolitan Water District canals. Capacity on documented total-capacity basis (646.2 kaf; no separately published live/active split).
SOURCE · USBR hydrodata 923